Successful SEC Coaches in their 1st seasons...

#77
#77
oregonvol said:
In search of a factual basis in which to judge Butch Jones' first season, I thought we could look at the first years of coaches who were hired in the SEC in this century, who ultimately ended up being successful at their schools.

I noted their embarrassing losses (which I categorize as either a loss to an opponent with significantly less talent or a loss to an opponent where you just got thoroughly drubbed by a mass of points) and big wins (which I categorize as upsets over opponents with significantly higher rankings and/or talent, or an absolute drubbing of a respectable opponent with similar talent/ranking).


Mark Richt, Georgia
previous team record: 8-4
record in 1st year: 8-4
Bad Losses: None
Big/Upset Wins: Tennessee (#6 at home, W 26-24)

Urban Meyer, Florida
previous team record: 7-5
record in 1st year: 9-3
Bad Losses: Alabama (L 31-3), South Carolina (L 30-22)
Big/Upset Wins: Florida State (decisive win over ranked rival, W 34-7)

Nick Saban, LSU
previous team record: 3-8
record in 1st year: 8-4
Bad Losses: Florida (L 41-9)
Big/Upset Wins: Tennessee (#11, W 38-31)


Nick Saban, Alabama
previous team record: 6-6
record in 1st year: 7-6
Bad Losses: Louisiana Monroe (L 17-12)
Big/Upset Wins: Tennessee (decisive win over ranked rival, W 41-17)

Les Miles, LSU
previous team record: 9-3
record in 1st year: 11-2
Bad Losses: none
Big/Upset Wins: Miami (decisive win over top 10 team, W 40-3)

Gene Chizik, Auburn
previous team record: 5-7
record in 1st year: 8-5
Bad Losses: None
Big/Upset Wins: None

Bobby Petrino, Arkansas
previous team record: 8-5
record in 1st year: 5-7
Bad Losses: Alabama (L 49-14), Texas (L 52-10), Florida (L 38-7)
Big/Upset Wins: LSU (W 31-30)

Steve Spurrier, South Carolina
previous team record: 6-5
record in 1st year: 7-5
Bad Losses: Auburn (L 48-7)
Big/Upset Wins: Tennessee (W 16-15), Florida (W 30-22)

James Franklin, Vanderbilt
previous team record: 2-10
record in 1st year: 6-7
Bad Losses: Alabama (L 34-0)
Big/Upset Wins: Wake Forest (W 41-7), *also close losses to Tennessee, Florida, Arkansas & Georgia, (all within a touchdown) notable simply because they are Vanderbilt, after all

...So what can we learn here? What stands out to me is that the majority had at least one bad, uncompetitive loss in their first season. But also, everyone except Chizik had either a big upset win or a decisive blowout over a talented team (or, in the case of Vanderbilt, at least a comparably or arguably more talented rival). Several coaches took over teams with losing records and all made it to a bowl in their 1st year. Out of 9 instances, only 1 coach (Petrino) failed to show improvement in their first year in either win/loss record or in victories over ranked rivals. Petrino is also the only one of the 9 to lose more than 1 game in blowout fashion.
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Are you forgetting someone? 9-2-1 in his first year.
 
#78
#78
oregonvol said:
In search of a factual basis in which to judge Butch Jones' first season, I thought we could look at the first years of coaches who were hired in the SEC in this century, who ultimately ended up being successful at their schools.

I noted their embarrassing losses (which I categorize as either a loss to an opponent with significantly less talent or a loss to an opponent where you just got thoroughly drubbed by a mass of points) and big wins (which I categorize as upsets over opponents with significantly higher rankings and/or talent, or an absolute drubbing of a respectable opponent with similar talent/ranking).


Mark Richt, Georgia
previous team record: 8-4
record in 1st year: 8-4
Bad Losses: None
Big/Upset Wins: Tennessee (#6 at home, W 26-24)

Urban Meyer, Florida
previous team record: 7-5
record in 1st year: 9-3
Bad Losses: Alabama (L 31-3), South Carolina (L 30-22)
Big/Upset Wins: Florida State (decisive win over ranked rival, W 34-7)

Nick Saban, LSU
previous team record: 3-8
record in 1st year: 8-4
Bad Losses: Florida (L 41-9)
Big/Upset Wins: Tennessee (#11, W 38-31)


Nick Saban, Alabama
previous team record: 6-6
record in 1st year: 7-6
Bad Losses: Louisiana Monroe (L 17-12)
Big/Upset Wins: Tennessee (decisive win over ranked rival, W 41-17)

Les Miles, LSU
previous team record: 9-3
record in 1st year: 11-2
Bad Losses: none
Big/Upset Wins: Miami (decisive win over top 10 team, W 40-3)

Gene Chizik, Auburn
previous team record: 5-7
record in 1st year: 8-5
Bad Losses: None
Big/Upset Wins: None

Bobby Petrino, Arkansas
previous team record: 8-5
record in 1st year: 5-7
Bad Losses: Alabama (L 49-14), Texas (L 52-10), Florida (L 38-7)
Big/Upset Wins: LSU (W 31-30)

Steve Spurrier, South Carolina
previous team record: 6-5
record in 1st year: 7-5
Bad Losses: Auburn (L 48-7)
Big/Upset Wins: Tennessee (W 16-15), Florida (W 30-22)

James Franklin, Vanderbilt
previous team record: 2-10
record in 1st year: 6-7
Bad Losses: Alabama (L 34-0)
Big/Upset Wins: Wake Forest (W 41-7), *also close losses to Tennessee, Florida, Arkansas & Georgia, (all within a touchdown) notable simply because they are Vanderbilt, after all

...So what can we learn here? What stands out to me is that the majority had at least one bad, uncompetitive loss in their first season. But also, everyone except Chizik had either a big upset win or a decisive blowout over a talented team (or, in the case of Vanderbilt, at least a comparably or arguably more talented rival). Several coaches took over teams with losing records and all made it to a bowl in their 1st year. Out of 9 instances, only 1 coach (Petrino) failed to show improvement in their first year in either win/loss record or in victories over ranked rivals. Petrino is also the only one of the 9 to lose more than 1 game in blowout fashion.
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Pretty sure Les Miles losing to us was a bad loss.
 
#80
#80
WoodstockVol said:
Vince Dooley lost His first game at Georgia to Alabama 31-3. Georgia went 7-3-1 in His first season in 1964.
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Gene Stallings started his first season at Bama (1990) 0-3, and finished the season 7-4 with wins over Auburn, UT and LSU. He won the national title in his 3rd season. Bama was later found guilty of major violations, but that was for things that took place during the '93 season.
 
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#81
#81
Stevorino said:
2. Everyone on that list inherited a much better roster/situation/schedule combo than B.Jones.
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No. They didn't all from a roster/situation perspective. Meyer did. Chizik didn't. Spurrier didn't. Franklin didn't. You could throw H Freeze in there who also didn't. Richt did. Saban at LSU did not. Saban at Bama probably did but also had a bunch of discipline problems. Petrino definitely did not inherit a better roster and the program was in disarray due to Nutt.

You could argue that Chizik having to face Bama, LSU, UGA, and Arkansas in conference plus WVU out of conference was as difficult as what Jones faces. The rest probably not... though there are really no easy schedules in the SEC.
 
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#82
#82
sjt18 said:
No. They didn't all from a roster/situation perspective. Meyer did. Chizik didn't. Spurrier didn't. Franklin didn't. You could throw H Freeze in there who also didn't. Richt did. Saban at LSU did not. Saban at Bama probably did but also had a bunch of discipline problems. Petrino definitely did not inherit a better roster and the program was in disarray due to Nutt.

You could argue that Chizik having to face Bama, LSU, UGA, and Arkansas in conference plus WVU out of conference was as difficult as what Jones faces. The rest probably not... though there are really no easy schedules in the SEC.
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Georgia was 8-4 in the 2000 season, Richt did walk into a good situation.
 
#83
#83
WriterVol said:
No. "Everyone" didn't. A few people made statements along those lines. Most of the posters offered up that it isn't exactly a one-to-one relationship and there could be some other mitigating factors. Some suggested throwing out one example or another.

The point I was trying to make is that you likely agree more than you disagree with most of these folks, and maybe you could start from that. Or, where disagreements exist, don't take them so personally.
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No one actually engaged with the facts. Just about everyone cried foul over the notion of introducing these facts and creating a basis for evaluating our coaches.
 
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#84
#84
FootVolintheFall said:
In 2009, we had the #10 recruiting class in the country. Of that class, 3 players remain: Daniel Hood, Marlon Walls and Greg King.

Yes, I'm going out on a limb and suggesting to you that James Franklin inherited a better roster than Butch Jones. The latter is nearly missing an entire class.
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Okay. Next week I'll start a new thread and tabulate the number of 4* & 3* recruits on the team Franklin inherited vs. the team Butch inherited. I'm guessing the answer will probably surprise you.
 
#85
#85
VolsFan_72 said:
Franklin had 9 wins in his second season. In order for CBJ to do that he would have to beat atleast 3 top 25 teams. Just sayin the record was a benefit of a weak schedule with 2 wins against .500 teams(both 7-6) and zero wins against top 25 teams.
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Okay, I guess we can discuss that next year. If you check out the OP, I'm not talking about anyone's second year at this point, so I'm not sure of the reason for your posts.
 
#86
#86
WoodstockVol said:
Johnny Majors was 4-7 in His first season in 1977 and Doug Dickey was 4-5-1 in His first season in 1964.
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Yeah, and maybe if I look back to say, 1910, I can find a guy who rebounded from a 40+ point loss to win the National Championship. But that has nothing to do with SEC football in this century, so that is why I limited the search to evidence of the past 13 years.
 
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#89
#89
VolsFan_72 said:
What we are forgetting about Franklin (9-4). Candy actually had 2 wins against .500 teams: Ole Miss(7-6) and NC State(7-6). Zero wins against top 25. For us to finish with 9 wins, we would have to beat 3 top 25 teams. That's the difference!
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If Tennessee beats just the teams that had a losing record in 2012, we end up with 6 wins this year. That means we beat Mizzou, UK, and Auburn. And I don't know what South Alabama's record was but we better beat them too.

I could see losing to Auburn or Mizzou, but I could also see maybe beating Georgia, SC, and Vandy. Not saying we will, but I won't completely dismiss the possibility.

I think 6 wins and a bowl trip with this team, that's a great first year. Really disappointed about the Oregon loss, but we did finish better, held them scoreless in the 4th quarter!
 
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#90
#90
oregonvol said:
No one actually engaged with the facts. Just about everyone cried foul over the notion of introducing these facts and creating a basis for evaluating our coaches.
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To say that this information is an interesting and perhaps insightful way to evaluate a coach is fine. But to deny that there aren't other factors involved as some of your respondents have suggested is a bit silly, isn't it?
 
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#91
#91
Here is what I see:

Central Michigan
- '06-'07 (under Brian Kelly) 10-4
- '07-'08 (under CBJ) 8-6
- '08-'09 (under CBJ) 8-5
- '09-'10 (under CBJ) 12-2

Cincinnati
- '09-10 (under Brian Kelly) 12-1
- '10-'11 (under CBJ) 4-8
- '11-'12 (under CBJ) 10-3
- '12-'13 (under CBJ) 10-3

I think that we need to be patient. We wanted a proven coach, and I believe that we have one. Brian Kelly left the teams in pretty good shape when CBJ took over, and there were still some growing pains. CDD left the cupboards pretty bare. The recruiting is incredible! (let's not forget that recruits visit these boards) This is a process (not a CDD process, but a CBJ process).

Keep the faith VN...:eek:k:
 
#92
#92
oregonvol said:
I never said that James Franklin was great, but he has been successful. He's achieved more at Vanderbilt than any coach they have had in 50+ years. He's been to back to back bowl games. He won 9 games in year 2. He outrecruited Tennessee. Those are incredible achievements in two years at Vanderbilt.

Furthermore, I feel it is instructive to look at Franklin as a coach who inherited a tough situation. Butch fans want to argue that he should be given a pass for 3-4 years because of what he inherited. Well, Franklin inherited a 2-10 program and was competitive out of the gate.
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Before you post these records you need to not just post then result...you should also compare schedules. I guarentee you won't find one of those teams playing the second toughest schedules in not only theSEC but in the whole ncaa! Then you need to look at the talent those coaches inherited! I'm willing to bet every coach on that list had rosters full of elite talent with the exception of Franklin!
 
#95
#95
tlanderson341 said:
Before you post these records you need to not just post then result...you should also compare schedules. I guarentee you won't find one of those teams playing the second toughest schedules in not only theSEC but in the whole ncaa! Then you need to look at the talent those coaches inherited! I'm willing to bet every coach on that list had rosters full of elite talent with the exception of Franklin!
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Everyone plays a tough schedule. We don't really know how tough of a schedule we're playing is anyway, until the season ends and we see where teams finish up. But if you want to start that thread, feel free.

I've already said that I will tabulate the 4*s and 3*s on the teams Butch, Franklin, and Hugh Freeze started with in a new thread soon. Going back to the rosters on teams 9-10 years ago is more difficult because I don't know of an easy resource that has that info. But, I will look into including Spurrier's first team at South Carolina, if possible.
 
#97
#97
WriterVol said:
To say that this information is an interesting and perhaps insightful way to evaluate a coach is fine. But to deny that there aren't other factors involved as some of your respondents have suggested is a bit silly, isn't it?
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I never said any such thing. But none of my responders have attempted an analysis based on my factors or their factors. They just seek to invalidate all factors that would form a basis for evaluation.
 
#98
#98
So...because we asked to be patient with Dooley, we can't be patient with Butch Jones? Why is "we did the same thing with Dooley" being brought up as if it's some kind of burn? It WAS proper to be patient with Dooley, and his first year actually wasn't too bad. He did go on to show he couldn't cut it, but that doesn't mean we should have judged him right away.
 
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