Tennessee Not A Blip On The Radar

[Joe Vols]

I don't think it matters much what any of us thinks. Unless one of you guys is on the coaching staff.

 

[sjt18]

Which do you think would be better- A #20 ranked class with little to no attrition or a #10 class with half the 4-5* players gone within the first two years? Who has a better shot at contributing, a 3* player on your roster or a 5* player who isn't?

But probably more relevant to what Dooley seems to be trying to do... Can you develop a 3* player over 3 years so that in his 4th and 5th years he can bring more skill to the field than a 4 or 5 star Fr/Soph?

 

[Kevinyaheard]

Which do you think would be better- A #20 ranked class with little to no attrition or a #10 class with half the 4-5* players gone within the first two years? Who has a better shot at contributing, a 3* player on your roster or a 5* player who isn't?

But probably more relevant to what Dooley seems to be trying to do... Can you develop a 3* player over 3 years so that in his 4th and 5th years he can bring more skill to the field than a 4 or 5 star Fr/Soph?

This.

 

[Joe Vols]

 

[Volnidas]

Dude... if you take the 5 players away from Kiffin's class that are no longer here due to an assortment of issues, we barely have a top 25 class in 2009. I would be embarrassed to even look at last years!!!

Just because Kiffin's highly rated recruits didn't work out has no affect on rather we should go after highly ranked recruits right now. Again all I'm saying is to be a annual SEC contender a school must recruit highly ranked classes consistently and have a good coaching staff, which has proven to be true if you look at who has been winning the SEC.

 

[Volnidas]

Which do you think would be better- A #20 ranked class with little to no attrition or a #10 class with half the 4-5* players gone within the first two years? Who has a better shot at contributing, a 3* player on your roster or a 5* player who isn't?

But probably more relevant to what Dooley seems to be trying to do... Can you develop a 3* player over 3 years so that in his 4th and 5th years he can bring more skill to the field than a 4 or 5 star Fr/Soph?

Those aren't the only 2 options. The best thing to have is a top 10 class with minimal attrition. And if a team is recruiting top 10 classes every year they can afford to lose 1 to 3 players to attrition in each class. Look at the teams that are recruiting top 10 classes every year right now, they lose a couple to attrition in each class but it doesn't affect them because they have top 10 talent to fill those spots up with. It would be better to have 4 and 5 star jr/sr than 3 star jr/sr. Don't you think Dooley's approach has been tried by other coaches in the SEC. Getting a bunch of 3 stars coaching them up so they can contribute the jr/sr seasons seems like what arkansas, ole miss, mississippi state and USCjr doing for a while, hasn't been working. It doesn't work because you are taking 3 star jr/sr and competing with Bama, UF and LSU who have 4 and 5 star jr/sr.

 

[Kevinyaheard]

Just because Kiffin's highly rated recruits didn't work out has no affect on rather we should go after highly ranked recruits right now. Again all I'm saying is to be a annual SEC contender a school must recruit highly ranked classes consistently and have a good coaching staff, which has proven to be true if you look at who has been winning the SEC.

Dude do you seriously believe that we are not even going after highly ranked recruits? Rome was not built in a day. Look at Bama and the gators for instance. Zook had the roster stocked for Meyer when he got there, and I don't think anybody with any sense would disagree that Saban was at least twice as well off as Dooley was.

Saban already had a NC on his resume, coupled with him just coming from the NFL, he was a known commodity.

Meyer won with Zook's recruits, and anybody with any sense would agree, wins equal recruiting success.

1) Dooley is a relatively unknown in the "Big Time" coaching ranks among recruits. 2) Tennessee has been mediocre for at least the extent of the current seniors high school careers.

How can you expect to Tinkerbell to come through the window and wisk us all away to never never land? Dude, its going to take time genius! Dooley is the best that Tennessee could get.

Go back and read the many valid points that you have continued to overlook and contemplate why you are the only one not understanding the many VALID points of the argument here.

 

[Kevinyaheard]

Those aren't the only 2 options. The best thing to have is a top 10 class with minimal attrition. And if a team is recruiting top 10 classes every year they can afford to lose 1 to 3 players to attrition in each class. Look at the teams that are recruiting top 10 classes every year right now, they lose a couple to attrition in each class but it doesn't affect them because they have top 10 talent to fill those spots up with. It would be better to have 4 and 5 star jr/sr than 3 star jr/sr. Don't you think Dooley's approach has been tried by other coaches in the SEC. Getting a bunch of 3 stars coaching them up so they can contribute the jr/sr seasons seems like what arkansas, ole miss, mississippi state and USCjr doing for a while, hasn't been working. It doesn't work because you are taking 3 star jr/sr and competing with Bama, UF and LSU who have 4 and 5 star jr/sr.

Just because Rivals or Scout says they are 4 and 5 star guys doesn't make them 4 or 5 star guys. Why do you think there is such big discrepancies between the services themselves? We are getting the best guys that we can get, as evaluated by our coaching staff.

Do you seriously think our coaches are sitting around and saying, "Naw man, I told you I don't want the 4 star guy man, I want the 3 star cause I don't think he is that good." That is what you are saying.

They are paid the evaluate the talent, not idiot number 2 with the computer.

All things being equal and there is a 3 star and 4 star player, ok? Except the 4 star player, which is just a little better, has some grade issues and only has a 50/50 chance of even getting into school. I'm taking the 3 star that is almost as good but has 100% chance getting in and at least ATTEMPTING to contribute.

Simply math ten 3 star recruits are better than five 4 star recruits IMHO.

 

[sjt18]

Just because Kiffin's highly rated recruits didn't work out has no affect on rather we should go after highly ranked recruits right now. Again all I'm saying is to be a annual SEC contender a school must recruit highly ranked classes consistently and have a good coaching staff, which has proven to be true if you look at who has been winning the SEC.

No. Kiffin's guys along with Fulmer's 5* attrition demonstrate the point that when you pick over someone else's leftovers.... you get more 4-5* busts.

I never said there were no risks trying to find the 3* gems. There is. But there's no more than sorting through the scraps these instate schools throw in the trash.

 

[NashVol11]

Please cite where I said there were no "moral victories". I think there ARE losses that you can build off of and losses that do nothing but damage. A young UT team that is really outclassed physically that is in the position to beat UF late and does not quit has accomplished more and has a better place to build from than the one that collapsed vs Oregon.

Sure. They're better than they were the game before. That doesn't mean they were anywhere close to actually beating Florida nor does it mean that they would "consistently beat the top tier" or whatever you said if we had a few more players of the caliber that Dooley is pulling.

UT wasn't thoroughly dominated on the LOS. In fact, that as much as anything is what kept it close. Yes they were beaten at times on both sides of the ball but UT contained UF's run game and protected Simms enough.

...And Brantley had all day to do whatever he wanted and we had 23 carries for 29 yards, but sure.

No. I have stated something very clearly that is very true. In the last 10 years, all of the BCS champions have come from states with high levels of HSFB and high concentrations of talent. Schools from outside those states have tried in vain to raid those states for enough talent to beat teams from within those states.

Eight teams have won at least one NC since 01. Over 110 have failed. Roughly 62 BCS level schools have tried to raid states like FL, LA, TX, and CA for the talent to win a NC. ALL have failed.

Have I now been clear enough? Do you think that 62 teams over 10 years trying to do the same thing but failing isn't enough proof to take a step back and say, "Hey, maybe I should try something a little different."?

And what about 12 years ago? How did we win it? By raiding Georgia? Oh, right. What was Kiffin trying to do? Raid Florida and Georgia? And it was working? Oh, okay.

It's that simple. We win when we have success in those states. If anything, your data proves that teams have to have success in those states to win. That is where the talent is. Oklahoma wins by raiding Texas. Wandering around Tennessee looking for 3*s is never going to cut it if we want to be any better than mediocre. Plenty of other coaches try to find diamonds in the rough in random other states, and they don't win. It's been tried before. It just doesn't work.

 

[sjt18]

Those aren't the only 2 options. The best thing to have is a top 10 class with minimal attrition.

Well let's just call Dominos and order one up.

Seriously, think about what is being said here.

For instance, there will be around 50 4-5* players in FL this year if it is a typical year. Between Miami, UF, FSU, and USF... 30-40 won't leave the state. EVERYONE in the eastern half of the US will be recruiting the others.

Easily 25% of those will be character/academic risks... which ones do you think the instate schools are trying to get? Who do you think has the best connections and most fan loyalty ties with the recruit?

And if a team is recruiting top 10 classes every year they can afford to lose 1 to 3 players to attrition in each class.

Do your own work this time. Go and look at the actual attrition rate among highly rated players at UT over the last several years. Look at the inordinate number of busts. Fulmer avg'd right around a top 10 class over his last 6 years or so... where did it leave UT?

Look at the teams that are recruiting top 10 classes every year right now, they lose a couple to attrition in each class but it doesn't affect them because they have top 10 talent to fill those spots up with.

Their attrition rates aren't as high because they take the picks of the litter. They leave the "runts". Take another look at those teams and note where most of them are located... and where ALL of the ones who've won an NC in the last 10 years are located.

It would be better to have 4 and 5 star jr/sr than 3 star jr/sr. Don't you think Dooley's approach has been tried by other coaches in the SEC.

No. Not exactly because he isn't them and they aren't him.

Saban said that Dooley had an exceptionally good eye for talent. If he succeeds it will be because he does... not because Rivals rankings say he does.

Getting a bunch of 3 stars coaching them up so they can contribute the jr/sr seasons seems like what arkansas, ole miss, mississippi state and USCjr doing for a while, hasn't been working.

When Auburn was good, it worked for them. When Ark was good, it worked for them.

Arkansas just took Bama to the wire and should have beaten them... check the "stars" on their roster.

It doesn't work because you are taking 3 star jr/sr and competing with Bama, UF and LSU who have 4 and 5 star jr/sr.

Actually Bama's NC team last year depended heavily on 3* guys.

But they're winning because they have talent and are well coached... not because someone ranked their recruits one way or the other

The recruiting svcs miss more great players than they find. They tend to miss the ones who aren't from major HSFB states, play mediocre or poor competition, don't go to camps, don't send their film in, etc.

 

[sjt18]

Sure. They're better than they were the game before. That doesn't mean they were anywhere close to actually beating Florida nor does it mean that they would "consistently beat the top tier" or whatever you said if we had a few more players of the caliber that Dooley is pulling.

YOU don't "know" what "caliber" of players Dooley is pulling in. You won't know until they get in the program. You think you do simply because the recruiting svcs haven't drooled over them.

FTR, I don't know either. They could be a collection of duds that will cost Dooley his job in 3 years... but I'm not claiming to know more than guys getting paid big bucks to find talent.

And what about 12 years ago? How did we win it? By raiding Georgia without the benefit of Rivals or Scout assigning "stars" to HS players.

FYP

Oh, right. What was Kiffin trying to do? Raid Florida and Georgia? And it was working? Oh, okay.

Was it? Of the six 09 4-5* signees he pulled in, 3 are gone and two because they got in legal trouble. As I said, teams who pick over the scraps... get alot of "dung".

It's that simple. We win when we have success in those states. That is where the talent is. Wandering around Tennessee looking for 3*s is never going to cut it if we want to be any better than mediocre.

Dooley is recruiting those states. He's also not ignoring the instate guys.

Please explain to me how it is demographically possible for the state of TN not to have "talent" proportionate to other states? Competition raises skill level and exposes talent but it does not create talent. Talent you are mostly born with. So do you agree that the raw talent is there... somewhere?

 

[sjt18]

Demps' ypc this year by week: 12.25, 12.64, 2.81, 7.13... enough?

 

[Kevinyaheard]

(From another Thread)
just this past year the All American list consisted of on offense

2 5 star recruits
10 4 star recruits
16 3 star recruits
5 2 star recruits
1 not even ranked

thats just the first 3 teams from offense on the AP All American team.

Kids are labeled as 5 stars because of projections on the perceived growth of 18 year olds. Kids that have proven what they can do on the football field but dont fit a certain mold get lower rankings........

 

[NashVol11]

I didn't say anything about getting just warm bodies... good grief, the disease is spreading.

Three star players with talent step in and play just like 5* players with talent.

King did. Bohannon did. Fulton has. Propst is getting quality PT on special teams. Z Rogers, A Johnson, S Frazier,... all contributed as Fr. All 3* players.

You're not going to build a team of "3* players with talent," go up against Alabama, and win. Rivals is often wrong, but it isn't a crapshoot. The percentages are much lower, as you say yourself right below this, and you can't really expect that Dooley is just so much better than everyone else at evaluating that he magically finds all the underrated, talented ones in the minority. Guys like Saban and Orgeron are very likely better than anyone on our staff at finding 3*s with talent, and then they find 4*s and 5*s with more talent. That's what we eventually have to keep up with.

By the way, 2 of our 13 2-3*s are really contributing right now on a very bad team. Our 4-5*s include Hunter, James, Miller, Milton, Neal, Rogers, Smith, Stone and our best commit for 2011 (Loften). You tell me which group is helping us more right now.

That isn't true. They don't become stars at as high of a percentage but just as many if not more becomes great players.

Yeah, because there are something like 50 times as many of them. Extrapolate those percentages out to an 85-man roster and you'll see the difference in the number of truly talented players we would have.

UT can keep trying it that way in hopes of the 1 in a million roll of the dice will be them or they can try to find a different way to get the talent needed to win. Regardless of Rivals or Scout rankings... there aren't alot of championship caliber/character 4-5* players leaving FL, TX, or CA to play their college football.

Seriously? Yeah, Michigan, Notre Dame, and Oklahoma just get lucky every time they have success. In fact, considering how many times they've beaten those crazy one-in-a-million odds, they must be REALLY lucky.

Oregon will probably be the 2nd best team UT faces this year. They haven't had a Rivals top 10 class in the last 5 years.

Three of their top 4 rushers were 3*.

Four of their top 5 receivers were 3*.

In their top 11 tacklers, the first 8 either 3* or 2*. The next 3 were 4*.

Starting OL: three 2*, one 3*, one 4*.

IF a coach can find the right players regardless of their recruiting svc love... they can build a championship caliber team.

And what championship is Oregon winning?

 

[utmba93]

You make this way too complicated. Talent wins. When did we win our last national title? Oh, right, when we were insanely talented. If freaking Fulmer could find enough players in Georgia and elsewhere, why can't anyone else? You're acting like my idea has been proven wrong, when it's been proven right EVERY SINGLE YEAR that the teams with the best players win.

Spot on!

 

[NashVol11]

Which do you think would be better- A #20 ranked class with little to no attrition or a #10 class with half the 4-5* players gone within the first two years? Who has a better shot at contributing, a 3* player on your roster or a 5* player who isn't?

Interesting that you would ask. Half? You sure about that? Would you rather have a class full of Martaze Jacksons and Raiques Crumps or Kiffin's 2009 class minus Edwards, Green, Nuke, and Myles? Yeah, I really don't think we needed to raid Louisiana for Janzen Jackson; we should have just gone after LSU's leftovers.

 

[NashVol11]

No. Kiffin's guys along with Fulmer's 5* attrition demonstrate the point that when you pick over someone else's leftovers.... you get more 4-5* busts.

I never said there were no risks trying to find the 3* gems. There is. But there's no more than sorting through the scraps these instate schools throw in the trash.

Wanna rethink how overboard you're going right now? Last year, our QB, RB, top 2 WRs, 4/5 OL, 3/4 DL, best LB, and both safeties were 4-5*s. Pretty much every playmaker we had. They helped us a lot more than the 3*s did.

 

[utmba93]

Interesting that you would ask. Half? You sure about that? Would you rather have a class full of Martaze Jacksons and Raiques Crumps or Kiffin's 2009 class minus Edwards, Green, Nuke, and Myles? Yeah, I really don't think we needed to raid Louisiana for Janzen Jackson; we should have just gone after LSU's leftovers.

SJT has basically resigned himself to the same argument he keeps making about why UT hired Dooley... it's the best we can do.

They quit. Game over for them.

Keep up the fight! If we don't insist on a coach who can recruit talent, we cannot compete for championships... EVER!

These guys just want to give away 85 schollies to whomever is Homer enough to agree with them. It's not about winning for that crowd. It's about having a full page of players listed in the program.

 

[NashVol11]

YOU don't "know" what "caliber" of players Dooley is pulling in. You won't know until they get in the program. You think you do simply because the recruiting svcs haven't drooled over them.

Um, no...everyone was pretty positive that King and Fulton were underrated 4* talents before they got here. The same was true of Milton and Bray, until Rivals moved them up to 4*s. It's not that hard to tell. But to compete with the best, we have to bring in a class FULL of underrated, 4* talents (as in, something like 20/25) every year. And what percentage of 3*s are really talented? You think it's anywhere near 80%, or do you just think Dooley is that good even though he didn't find many underrated gems at La Tech?

FYP

Yeah, and we weren't getting Georgia's or anyone's "scraps," either...which kind of completely contradicts your point.

Was it? Of the six 09 4-5* signees he pulled in, 3 are gone and two because they got in legal trouble. As I said, teams who pick over the scraps... get alot of "dung".

JaWuan James, Ted Meline, Da'Rick Rogers, Chaz Green, and if not for Bowden leaving we would have Christian Jones and Jeff Luc as well. All of those guys were highly sought after, and that's just one recruiting class off the top of my head. Yes, it was working.

Please explain to me how it is demographically possible for the state of TN not to have "talent" proportionate to other states? Competition raises skill level and exposes talent but it does not create talent. Talent you are mostly born with. So do you agree that the raw talent is there... somewhere?

It's not anywhere near developed enough for us to be able to compete nationally fielding a team of it. Illinois, Missouri and Kentucky all have plenty of people and "talent" there, but that doesn't mean schools can start expecting championships when they lock down those powerhouse states.

 

[utmba93]

Saban said that Dooley had an exceptionally good eye for talent.

Dooley said his wife could recognize the kind of talent UT needs. Using your logic, why not appoint her as recruiting coordinator?

This Saban says this or that stuff is not evidence to support these arguments. He is the head coach of a team who wants to kick our arse every year.

Saban and Meyer didn't like Kiffin because they knew he could beat them. They like Dooley for the opposite reason. He'll keep us right where they want us... below them. That's what your 3* strategy guarantees.

 

[VOLFAN_MTSUALUM]

If you are looking for stars, go to Hollywood. The rest of us will cheer for the VOLS and give Dooley his time to field a team that will have a winning trend albeit it no stars or 5 from some group, do you really think they can analyze every player at every school????

 

[VolunteerHillbilly]

Fulmer walked in on a stacked program. When he and his staff were recruiting the players that would later win the BCSCG in the early and mid 90s, they were recruiting from a position of strength. Majors had won the SEC in 1989 and 1990, and took the team to the Fiesta Bowl in 1991. UTK was winning big and still on the ascendancy. Dooley is going to have to do the same thing Majors did in the 1970s. That's where the Vols are now. We are not UF in 2005, Bama in 2007 or even UGA in 2001. The 2010 Vols are more like 1977 Vols. IF the powers that be were wise enough (or merciless enough depending on your perspective) to pull the trigger on Coach Fulmer after 2005 then the program would not be where it is now. What's done is done. We are staring at a long term rebuilding project. A couple of elite athletes are not going to make any difference against the upper echelon of the conference when you have an OL that can't block (run or pass), an undersized DL and LBs who can't get to the corner. I do think the kicking game might be alot better in 2011. Everything else is going to take time.

 

[cmelton7]

Yes some intelligent 3 stars can be coached up but a lot can't be. If recruiting 3 stars and coaching them up was a legit way of getting back to the top I would support it, but its been proven that this strategy doesn't work. If it did work teams like Mississippi State, Ole Miss and Arkansas would have a lot more success historically. The proven way of winning championships is to recruit 4 and 5 star players and coach them up.

THIS. However, you have got to start somewhere. You can't come off what UT has done the last 4 years ( the legnth of "most" recruit's stay in H.S.) and get a bunch of 5 stars. A few people could, but UT didn't have 10 mill to throw at them per year. There are a hand full of teams with the built in recruiting base, and tradition to do that, and UT is not one of them. We have to take these guys, and win. Every up and coming program over achieves at first. Then they get the big time recruits (except Ron Zook).

 

[tm3]

Dooley is going to have to do the same thing Majors did in the 1970s.

no rivals and scout in 1976, but according to lwsvol CJM's first recruiting class had more parade all americans than any class before or since. if there had been ranking services, it would almost certainly have been the #1 class. which makes sense, as CJM was coming off a NC and was a hot item. and the recruiting success continued, landing such players as reggie white (are there enough stars in rivals' universe to rank reggie?).

but it still took johnny 8 years to win the SECC.