Tennessee ranking

#128
#128
MemphisCanes said:
What is all this "expected" garbage? What about record vs. top 25? Top 100?

Take out your make believe stuff, and the resumes aren't comparable.
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Expected values are a statistical concept, not just some made up descriptive word. They're based on data, not pure guesswork. In KPs case, the use of expected values comes from simulations of future games based on past data from this season. He's essentially saying that the data indicate that the remaining games will be distributed as a certain proportion of wins and losses based on a probability function he has modeled.

In other words, based on the NCAA data, there's a pretty good likelihood that each team's record will fall within a game or two of this estimation, and a much smaller likelihood that it won't. Could there be an outlier? Sure, a team could deviate from his expected value model - that's why they play the games. But, as it currently stands, there is little reason to believe that there is any meaningful gap between these teams, based on their performance so far and remaining schedule.

Best to remain quiet and thought possibly a fool, than to open ones mouth and remove all doubt, MC.
 
#132
#132
Mount LeConte said:
Is this guy's ranking really worth a flip?
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It is at least based on mathematics used to predict future results vs an opinion based poll like the AP or Espn/Coaches poll.

In the grand scheme of things, none of the rankings mean anything really. That's why they play the games.
 
#133
#133
cncchris33 said:
It is at least based on mathematics used to predict future results vs an opinion based poll like the AP or Espn/Coaches poll.

In the grand scheme of things, none of the rankings mean anything really. That's why they play the games.
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Agreed. We all read the fiasco with the HOF votes against Maddux today so sports writers are not my favorite people right now. Sorry to go beisbol in the baloncesto forum. Merge if necessary.
 
#135
#135
MemphisCanes said:
What is all this "expected" garbage? What about record vs. top 25? Top 100?

Take out your make believe stuff, and the resumes aren't comparable.
Click to expand...

Rpiforecast.com

Remove the projections, and this is what you get...

Memphis:
10-3 (1-1)
SOS: 29
Top 50 Wins: 1
Bad Losses: 0


Tennessee:
10-4 (1-0)
SOS: 23
Top 50 Wins: 2
Bad Losses: 1


Still not comparable? Ok.
 
#136
#136
bleedingTNorange said:
Rpiforecast.com

Remove the projections, and this is what you get...

Memphis:
10-3 (1-1)
SOS: 29
Top 50 Wins: 1
Bad Losses: 0


Tennessee:
10-4 (1-0)
SOS: 23
Top 50 Wins: 2
Bad Losses: 1


Still not comparable? Ok.
Click to expand...

Those are nothing alike!!!
 
#140
#140
VolGee4 said:
Up until last night, I might have agreed. But we beat LSU, who is Memphis' second best win. Memphis has two wins against the top 100. UT has at least 4. Just because you beat a top 10 team doesn't mean it's a better résumé. Objectively, UT has the better résumé, and I am not sure how you can argue that.
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If you honestly believe that then there's nothing I can do for you.
 
#141
#141
bleedingTNorange said:
Rpiforecast.com

Remove the projections, and this is what you get...

Memphis:
10-3 (1-1)
SOS: 29
Top 50 Wins: 1
Bad Losses: 0


Tennessee:
10-4 (1-0)
SOS: 23
Top 50 Wins: 2
Bad Losses: 1


Still not comparable? Ok.
Click to expand...

Alright, since you're trying to play a shell game.

Memphis
RPI: 29
SOS:28
Record: 10-3
vs top 50: 1-3
vs. top 50-100: 1-0
vs. top 100+: 8-0
Best win: Oklahoma State (RPI 15)
Worst loss: Cincinnati (RPI 19)

Tennessee
RPI: 46
SOS: 22
Record: 9-4
vs top 50: 2-2
vs top 50-100: 2-1
vs top 100+: 5-1
Best win: Xavier (RPI 27)
Worst loss: MF'n UTEP (RPI 140)

Add to that, there are exactly zero (0.00) brackets on the bracket matrix that rank UT on the same seed line as Memphis.

Memphis in all 35 brackets as a 6 seed average, UT in only 24 as a 12 seed.

It's ridiculous that I had to even take the time to type this out. File this away in the "Education of BTO"; that file is getting pretty thick.
 
#142
#142
Let's see what the next brackets that come out say MC, assuming you lose today and we win Saturday....I'm betting we will be damn close to the same seed line, if not ahead of you.

Out of curiosity what does KP have you finishing at, you're a fan of his.
 
#143
#143
bleedingTNorange said:
Let's see what the next brackets that come out say MC, assuming you lose today and we win Saturday....I'm betting we will be damn close to the same seed line, if not ahead of you.

Out of curiosity what does KP have you finishing at, you're a fan of his.
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Are you expecting a win over a truly pathetic A&M squad is going to vault you guys to a six seed? What planet do you live on?

Pom has us finishing 22-9, but I suspect that status quo will set back in and we'll get back up to the top 20 after a few games. That has us at 7 losses, which is what I predicted for the season. That's probably a 4 seed with our schedule, maybe better.
 
#144
#144
I'm having a hard time understanding this...

Tennessee and Memphis doesn't play this year

Tennessee and Memphis are not in the same conference

Tennessee and Memphis have absolutely nothing to do with each other when it comes to who gets a bid to the dance.

We've never recruited Memphis well and Memphis deosn't come to East Tennessee to recruit

Soooo what's the big deal here? Who cares how many top 10-100-or 1000 wins each team has. The season's early. Geeeeez to both sides!!
 
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#145
#145
bleedingTNorange said:
Let's see what the next brackets that come out say MC, assuming you lose today and we win Saturday....I'm betting we will be damn close to the same seed line, if not ahead of you.

Out of curiosity what does KP have you finishing at, you're a fan of his.
Click to expand...
Sweep FLA and we'll be 2nd conf and a solid 4 seed. It's in our hands.
 
#147
#147
MemphisCanes said:
Add to that, there are exactly zero (0.00) brackets on the bracket matrix that rank UT on the same seed line as Memphis.

Memphis in all 35 brackets as a 6 seed average, UT in only 24 as a 12 seed.
Click to expand...

How do you criticize people for touting kenpom, then go on to tout the freaking bracket matrix?
 
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