The Aftermath: What are the possibilities?

#77
#77
red butler said:
I expect some type of monetary system reset due to all the stresses created by the quarantine. The current system has been showing signs of cracking for decades now. I'm sure it's a false hope, but I'm cautiously optimistic that TPTB will adopt something like the Chicago Plan that had been endorsed by several of the best economists in history. The plan is similar to pre-WWI Germany's monetary system. The colonies also used a similar system prior to the revolution.

IMF - The Chicago Plan revisited

Summary of the plan:
- Treasury creates all currency debt free, separating the the monetary and credit functions of the banking system
- Banks are required to maintain 100% reserves for the loans they issue

Pros:
- Much better control of business cycle fluctuations
- Complete elimination of bank runs
- Dramatic reduction of private debt as money creation no longer requires simultaneous debt creation.
- Steady state inflation can drop to zero without posing problems for the conduct of monetary policy
- Banks would once again have to compete for deposits. Increasing interest earned on savings
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I'm going to walk back my optimistic prediction. The Chicago Plan was the best case IMO for everyday Americans, but it looks like TPTB are going the opposite way. I did a little bit of research and found that the Federal Reserve reduced the reserve requirement for commercial banks to 0% at the onset of this crisis. At a time when an enormous number of small businesses are going to be closing their doors for good or taking on massive amounts of debts to stay open; the conditions are set for the financial elite and private equity firms to acquire loads of assets at pennies on the dollar. The TBTF banks and corporations will once again get bailouts at the expense of the taxpayer. I predict a bigger transfer of wealth from the middle class to the top .01% than the Great Depression and the 08 financial crisis combined. They're going to make out like bandits as the middle class goes on clearance.
 
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#80
#80
midnight orange said:
We’ve already got businesses and people being fined or warned because busybody neighbors are snitching over the 1-800-STASI numbers.
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Revenge crime will return with a vengence. Thankfully, my closest neighbors are 1/2 mile away. Both family. Both on same family property. Next closest neighbor knows that was me chasing him for poaching a deer in front of the house after the season closed. He won't be any more trouble. I had game warden pay him a visit.
 
#81
#81
My ATL commute time has become almost non existent when factoring idiot drivers causing slow downs
 
#82
#82
GVF said:
Revenge crime will return with a vengence. Thankfully, my closest neighbors are 1/2 mile away. Both family. Both on same family property. Next closest neighbor knows that was me chasing him for poaching a deer in front of the house after the season closed. He won't be any more trouble. I had game warden pay him a visit.
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"In front of"...

That is a key prepositional phrase. Was "the house" your house or his house?

Tattle tail?
 
#85
#85
A Mass Exodus Away From Big Cities On Both Coasts

Today, Los Angeles is a city on the brink. ‘For Sale’ signs are seemingly dotted on every suburban street as the middle classes, particularly those with families, flee for the safer suburbs, with many choosing to leave LA altogether.

British-born Danny O’Brien runs Watford Moving & Storage. ‘There is a mass exodus from Hollywood,’ he says.
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De Blasio’s New York has finally hit an all-time low: the once bustling city is now on the verge of looking like a demilitarized zone. Between the pandemic and the riots in the city, iconic 5th Avenue now looks more like a dystopian nightmare in a recently shot video posted to Twitter.

The video follows a car driving down a deserted 5th Avenue, with almost all of the area’s high end stores boarded up and shut down. There are few people seen on what is usually a busy street.

“Look at everything. Everything’s boarded up. Even the hotel. Boarded up,” the video’s narrator, who is obviously fed up with how the city looks, says.
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#89
#89
^^^ let's take that a step further. Or 2?

What happens to all the EITFs (spelling?) The commercial real estate stocks with the biggest dividends I personally know of, as they are legally required to pay them out, and all the folks invested heavily in them, when many companies downsize or fail now that it is realized that 50% or more office workers need not be at an office at all to do their jobs?

If NYC does truly see 50% of restaurants close and half or even 25% of their big office businesses go elsewhere...are they just a canary in a coal mine? An example of what will happen in many other big cities? Why live in big cities with outrageous rents for tiny apartments when you can get the same paycheck doing your job from anywhere in the US or even world?

If there is a mass exodus from the cities, bringing their liberal politics with them, does that spell the end of conservatives ever getting elected?

Lots of dominoes to come if a large portion of our economy stays home. None of them are good as far as I can see other than maybe pollution.
 
#90
#90
marcusluvsvols said:
If there is a mass exodus from the cities, bringing their liberal politics with them, does that spell the end of conservatives ever getting elected?

Lots of dominoes to come if a large portion of our economy stays home. None of them are good as far as I can see other than maybe pollution.
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Lets hope that many of them will learn their lessons after dealing with the likes of deBlasio, Cuomo, Whittmer and the like during this COVID fiasco and learn how to vote better.
 
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#91
#91
Rasputin_Vol said:
I can name the good and the bad possibilities

Good
* Working and schooling from home will pick up momentum
* With less need for rush hour commuting, less need for some highway expansion projects
* Jobs labeled "non-essential" during the outbreak will get re-examined (public sector and private sector)
* Tougher border laws


Bad
* Forced vaccinations
* Stronger Federal government
* Cellphone surveillance on normal people spikes
* Collapse of commercial real estate with the possible increase in workers from home
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Pretty good assessment
Now if I can just get you to stop hating Jews.
(Nobody get offended Ras is my buddy and knows I’m kidding)
 
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#92
#92
Rasputin_Vol said:
I can name the good and the bad possibilities

Good
* Working and schooling from home will pick up momentum
* With less need for rush hour commuting, less need for some highway expansion projects
* Jobs labeled "non-essential" during the outbreak will get re-examined (public sector and private sector)
* Tougher border laws


Bad
* Forced vaccinations
* Stronger Federal government
* Cellphone surveillance on normal people spikes
* Collapse of commercial real estate with the possible increase in workers from home
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Hmmm... looks like another "Bad" is one I should have seen early on. If they can pay workers that live in Miami or Austin or Phoenix, why couldn't they have workers that live in Kiev or Manila or Lahore that would do the same job for 10% of what they have to pay Americans? Seems like the fear or concern now is that when Biden gets in and reduces the limits on H1B visas, that this will open up the floodgates.

I guess in my mind, this wouldn't have even been a thought had Trump won. He likely would have done what he could to protect those American jobs.
 
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#96
#96
Rasputin_Vol said:
Hmmm... looks like another "Bad" is one I should have seen early on. If they can pay workers that live in Miami or Austin or Phoenix, why couldn't they have workers that live in Kiev or Manila or Lahore that would do the same job for 10% of what they have to pay Americans? Seems like the fear or concern now is that when Biden gets in and reduces the limits on H1B visas, that this will open up the floodgates.

I guess in my mind, this wouldn't have even been a thought had Trump won. He likely would have done what he could to protect those Americawouln jobs.
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Yet he would have cost this country billions of $$ with his inept negotiation skills. He doesn't understand the difference between a distributive negotiation and an integrated negotiation
 
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