The economy post-Covid

#103
#103
We will lose about 10 percent of businesses that had very low profit margins before this and were barely making it.

We have already lost a few restaurants in the area who had dick landlords who locked them out when they fell behind. These were the first wave.

The second wave will be those we try to reopen but cant regain footing. These will fad away late summer early spring.

Third wave will happen after the holiday season for those who don't get into the black.


This has not impacted as much main street business as people may think so as grocery stores and gas stations but it creamed the hospitality industry.

Car manufacturers will probably ask for a bail out soon as the car market has collapsed. 19s are still on many lots and the 21s come in soon. They csnt just stop though as the UAW's contracts require certain levels of manufacturing.

I also believe this will push automation in the hospitality industry even faster and many jobs such as cashiers will disappear faster than they would have. Pilots McDonalds have in the north will go across the us faster

I dont think we get under 10 percent unemployment for a long time.

You will also see more migration from heavily taxed blue states to red states as those with capital will look for a way to offset losses in growth income.
 
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#104
#104
Rasputin_Vol said:
I'm not sure where you have been, but the economy has been shut down for 2 months where I live at. Most small businesses cannot survive that.
Not sure where you live, but maybe it is different there...
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I live near Peachtree City, GA. Probably not the best microcosm of the USA as a whole, almost 90% White and six figure average incomes.

That being said, its America. If all these businesses fail there will be plenty of chances to revisit them. Gotta remember its a virus keeping people home. Once it passes everything will go back to normal. In fact here in Georgia the weekend when restrictions were lifted it was like Black Friday+Christmas eve with people shopping..

But I could be way off and totally wrong. I'm still rather shocked that our governments strategy involves educating people on how to wash their hands. Seems so many common sense things aren't actually common..
 
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#106
#106
Rasputin_Vol said:
No s^^t... just go to Cool Springs Mall area and you will see several parking lots stacked with Nissans and Infinitis.
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Lol. This has been going on for a few years with Nissan. The plant in Smyrna stores overflow production at the now closed Nashville Superspeedway
 
#107
#107
vols40 said:
Lol. This has been going on for a few years with Nissan. The plant in Smyrna stores overflow production at the now closed Nashville Superspeedway
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Thats weird because that seems to go against everything the Japanese stand for when it comes to product production and total quality management.
 
#109
#109
I think that commercial real estate will suffer for a long time. Many business will revaluate the necessity of having their employees work in corporate office spaces. I think working from home will become the norm for many industries in the not too distant future. People that have stake in these sorts of properties might well have one foot in the grave at this point
 
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#110
#110
lawgator1 said:
What about all these relief packages? We will have to pay for those, too.
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I don't think enough people understand that their is a cost associated with these stimulus checks. I'm not a currency expert, but doesn't this devalue our currency? Which if it did basically accomplishes one of the China's probable goals when they launched this thing on us
 
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#111
#111
lukeneyland said:
I don't think enough people understand that their is a cost associated with these stimulus checks. I'm not a currency expert, but doesn't this devalue our currency? Which if it did basically accomplishes one of the China's probable goals when they launched this thing on us
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Of course it will. Printing money out of thin air will result in inflation. It’s coming people.
 
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#112
#112
DC_Vol said:
Of course it will. Printing money out of thin air will result in inflation. It’s coming people.
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I know very little about economics, but can you have inflation with almost 0% interest rates? There is/has been talk about going negative rate like in Europe.
 
#113
#113
Orangeburst said:
I know very little about economics, but can you have inflation with almost 0% interest rates? There is/has been talk about going negative rate like in Europe.
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Nope but they are artificially low right now. We’ll see 80’s level interest rates in the next 10 yrs, IMO.
 
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#114
#114
FLVOL_79 said:
I live near Peachtree City, GA. Probably not the best microcosm of the USA as a whole, almost 90% White and six figure average incomes.

That being said, its America. If all these businesses fail there will be plenty of chances to revisit them. Gotta remember its a virus keeping people home. Once it passes everything will go back to normal. In fact here in Georgia the weekend when restrictions were lifted it was like Black Friday+Christmas eve with people shopping..

But I could be way off and totally wrong. I'm still rather shocked that our governments strategy involves educating people on how to wash their hands. Seems so many common sense things aren't actually common..
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I thought only pilots lived there.
 
#115
#115
NEOCON said:
Car manufacturers will probably ask for a bail out soon as the car market has collapsed. 19s are still on many lots and the 21s come in soon. They csnt just stop though as the UAW's contracts require certain levels of manufacturing.
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Really???
 
#116
#116
NEOCON said:
Car manufacturers will probably ask for a bail out soon as the car market has collapsed. 19s are still on many lots and the 21s come in soon. They csnt just stop though as the UAW's contracts require certain levels of manufacturing.
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Really???
 
#117
#117
FLVOL_79 said:
That being said, its America. If all these businesses fail there will be plenty of chances to revisit them. Gotta remember its a virus keeping people home. Once it passes everything will go back to normal. In fact here in Georgia the weekend when restrictions were lifted it was like Black Friday+Christmas eve with people shopping..
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You're not factoring in how long it will take after all of these small businesses go belly up before they get replaced. And, that is assuming they do get replaced and not automated out of existence. And just because a restaurant is "open" that doesn't mean that everything is all good and gravy. They lost 2 months of income.

I'm really not sure why you can't understand the seriousness of this calamity. Even though you are in TL Metro, you do realize that not all areas had as loose regulations as GA, correct? That is something else you have to factor in.
 
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#118
#118
Rasputin_Vol said:
Really???
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That's what a forecaster I am friends with told me. He does the forecasting for a car manufacturer here in tn.

He also said that there is a fear that after the 6 months deferred payments stop some people will just give the cars back and stop making payments.

Guess we will find out.
 
#119
#119
Rasputin_Vol said:
Really???
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Not really . All Union / Company contracts ive ever seen or worked with have emergency clauses in them to allow the company to override the contract if needed . ( I guess I should put that this is purely anecdotal ) .
 
#120
#120
FLVOL_79 said:
I live near Peachtree City, GA. Probably not the best microcosm of the USA as a whole, almost 90% White and six figure average incomes.

That being said, its America. If all these businesses fail there will be plenty of chances to revisit them. Gotta remember its a virus keeping people home. Once it passes everything will go back to normal. In fact here in Georgia the weekend when restrictions were lifted it was like Black Friday+Christmas eve with people shopping..

But I could be way off and totally wrong. I'm still rather shocked that our governments strategy involves educating people on how to wash their hands. Seems so many common sense things aren't actually common..
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Cool. I was on business there years ago. You ride around in a golf cart?
 
#122
#122
A sales tax will need to replace the income tax (and raise more money), people will quit paying their taxes if the choice is not eating or no housing. Healthcare will need to be socialized to the extent that there are no out-of-pockets costs for any patient or the population will face critical issues that will result in more deaths and disabilities.

There's much, much more...
 
#123
#123
Dumbledorange said:
A sales tax will need to replace the income tax (and raise more money), people will quit paying their taxes if the choice is not eating or no housing. Healthcare will need to be socialized to the extent that there are no out-of-pockets costs for any patient or the population will face critical issues that will result in more deaths and disabilities.

There's much, much more...
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I would like to hear! Please explain further!
 
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#125
#125
Dumbledorange said:
A sales tax will need to replace the income tax (and raise more money), people will quit paying their taxes if the choice is not eating or no housing. Healthcare will need to be socialized to the extent that there are no out-of-pockets costs for any patient or the population will face critical issues that will result in more deaths and disabilities.

There's much, much more...
Click to expand...
I admit, you've got me hooked...
 
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