The economy post-Covid

[Vol737]

I remember hearing all the same dire predictions during the 08/09 financial crisis. Let US get back to our businesses and jobs, get the govt out of the way and we will do what we have always done...move forward and get through it. Not saying it won’t be ugly, but somehow state governments went from “14 days to flatten the curve” to “stfu and do what we say!” Don’t think so.

 

[vols40]

Even people that live in Cali will come unhinges on their govt before long. JMO.

Californians will do nothing. California is such a lost cause of a state. I have zero confidence in anything from that state. Haven't since the sham court ruling reversing prop 187

 

[volfanhill]

Whatever dude. Continue to follow Fauci and his scare tactics of we need more testing before kids can go to school this fall while science says kids are the least vulnerable. Lol. At the very least the president is accountable to the voters. Who is Dr Fauci accountable to? . This is me praying that I never have to work for a boss like you

I never said I agree with him. I simply stated that ultimately the blame falls on Trump. And even with Trump, and the doctor, I am reasonable enough to say what the hell do you expect from anyone during a once a 100 year pandemic. People are going to get stuff wrong. No where on this board can you find where I have criticized Trump for his handling of this. I do take issue with people blaming the scientific community. They aren’t making the decisions. If Trump feels the doctor is so inept he should fire him. Problem is the scientists behind him agree with him for the most part. Doesn’t make them right. Ultimately, the person in charge has to make decisions based on what they think is right. And I think it’s sad that you wouldn’t want to work for a boss who owns the decisions they make. Including ones where they have to own listening to the wrong person.

 

[LouderVol]

For the good news part, we will also (should also) see an entrepreneurial explosion (creative destruction). So many of our behaviors/processes/products/services have suffered from institutional inertia. Being forced to question "why do we do it that way" is the door to reimagined solutions. Necessity is the mother of invention as they say. We already have a thread dedicated to telecommuting. There will be structural change across nearly every aspect of our economy and countless opportunity for those who have the 1) vision, 2) capabilities/skills, and 3) access to sufficient capital (the wildcard).

Historically pandemics have made room for great expansions. Pretty much for the reasons you mentioned. The old way couldnt work for one reason or another so something new had to be done.

 

[vols40]

I never said I agree with him. I simply stated that ultimately the blame falls on Trump. And even with Trump, and the doctor, I am reasonable enough to say what the hell do you expect from anyone during a once a 100 year pandemic. People are going to get stuff wrong. No where on this board can you find where I have criticized Trump for his handling of this. I do take issue with people blaming the scientific community. They aren’t making the decisions. If Trump feels the doctor is so inept he should fire him. Problem is the scientists behind him agree with him for the most part. Doesn’t make them right. Ultimately, the person in charge has to make decisions based on what they think is right. And I think it’s sad that you wouldn’t want to work for a boss who owns the decisions they make. Including ones where they have to own listening to the wrong person.

Until this post that's not the vibe you were putting out. The problem is "the scientific community" is not responsible to anyone. They say it's science and we are supposed to eat it and be thankful. Bloated government is bloated government. Excuse me if I am cynical towards a group of "Drs" who are entrenched in the cesspool that is the federal government. The scientific response to this is junior high at best. The president must face the American people in November. Who do the Fauci's have to face? Fauci is on record as saying that he believes that we will eventually have a vaccine for this. And that's a good thing. But why the positivity on this Corona Virus when to my knowledge we still don't have a vaccine for SARS?

 

[BlackCreekVol]

You still don't understand how this works, do you? We never are going to pay back the debt. We have an unlimited credit card.

I better get paid back for the bonds I hold

 

[LouderVol]

I am flabbergasted that we’ve made up all this needless debt out of thin air for over a decade and inflation hasn’t gotten out of control.

I think it's why you see two different sides arguing the wage argument.

You have the Ras types which points out that due to inflation people arent really making anymore than they used to.

Or you have those that dont understand economics and just believe raising the minimum wage fixes things.

It's the same problem seen from two different levels of understanding. Inflation has kept up and nullified a lot of the gains we should be seeing.

I dont know my economics enough to know who actually drives that inflation but I am biased towards paying the government does it. It allows them to talk out of both sides of their mouth. They get to praise the job they have done on minimum wage, but as it changes nothing they still have a boogey man to push.

The pandemic and economic fallout are just going to strengthen the inflation issue allowing them to keep or expand power. See the first, second and fifth amendments.

 

[lawgator1]

I think it's why you see two different sides arguing the wage argument.

You have the Ras types which points out that due to inflation people arent really making anymore than they used to.

Or you have those that dont understand economics and just believe raising the minimum wage fixes things.

It's the same problem seen from two different levels of understanding. Inflation has kept up and nullified a lot of the gains we should be seeing.

I dont know my economics enough to know who actually drives that inflation but I am biased towards paying the government does it. It allows them to talk out of both sides of their mouth. They get to praise the job they have done on minimum wage, but as it changes nothing they still have a boogey man to push.

The pandemic and economic fallout are just going to strengthen the inflation issue allowing them to keep or expand power. See the first, second and fifth amendments.

The deflation we are seeing right now in a lot of areas is emblematic of the other side of the problem, which is that flat earnings, in real terms, for the middle class and below means no real growth in consumer spending. We have done things to artificially pump up demand, or to insulate failing industries from downturn in demand, but at the end of the day, as wealth is concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, there are less dollars available to be spent on consumption of typical middle class goods.

And what happens when the banks start to teeter and credit suddenly freezes up or becomes too expensive? Less cars, new refrigerators, etc.

 

[Rocky_Top_Vol13]

Everything will go back to normal. Not sure where the 40% of jobs aren't coming back. I'd like to know what type of jobs those are and why they wouldn't come back..

I have a friend that works for Nissan, mid-level management, and he thinks that there will be several layoffs between the Smyrna and Decherd plants shortly after they reopen. He told me that Nissan has been over producing for a while now and this little recession was going to blow things up. I imagine this to be the case with several manufacturing jobs in the near the future.

 

[LouderVol]

The deflation we are seeing right now in a lot of areas is emblematic of the other side of the problem, which is that flat earnings, in real terms, for the middle class and below means no real growth in consumer spending. We have done things to artificially pump up demand, or to insulate failing industries from downturn in demand, but at the end of the day, as wealth is concentrated in fewer and fewer hands, there are less dollars available to be spent on consumption of typical middle class goods.

And what happens when the banks start to teeter and credit suddenly freezes up or becomes too expensive? Less cars, new refrigerators, etc.

As our government has so recently proven proven (2trillion here , 3 trillion here, 1 trillion deficits) there is no limit on the "dollars" in the system. We have never operated under a fixed amount of wealth. Even when backed by gold there wasnt a set amount like you are thinking.

So the rich having more and more does not take away from the poor. Not directly. Now if you have a bunch of dumb poor people making bad investments and a bunch of rich smart people making good investments there may be individual cases of the rich taking from the poor. But it's not a system problem.

Propping up demand and the industries is where the inflation comes into play imo. We have been "hiding" our inflation in those bail outs and other government programs any time they touch the economy they are doing this. Which is why things stay the same. Inflation is a corrective curve. The government just keeps resetting the curve without addressing it. Which is why you have wealth stagnation.

You get the government out of the way, let inflation hurt us for a bit and then let the market come out on it's own and you will see real change. Cant say if the change will be better or not. But I can say keeping the governments thumb on the scale doesnt fix anything.

The longer the government keeps its thumb down on the economy to offset inflation the heavier it has to get to offset the ever increasing inflation they are hiding. That economic weight they are putting out eventually falls over into the private rights area. Which is why wealth redistribution keeps getting brought up, and why people believe people are actually hoarding wealth to the determinant of society. The economic balance is off, and that throws off our perspectives on the rest.

 

[LouderVol]

I have a friend that works for Nissan, mid-level management, and he thinks that there will be several layoffs between the Smyrna and Decherd plants shortly after they reopen. He told me that Nissan has been over producing for a while now and this little recession was going to blow things up. I imagine this to be the case with several manufacturing jobs in the near the future.

Yup. The market needed a correction. We got bucked harder than we should have because the government tied us down instead of allowing us to adjust.

 

[37L1]

Yup. The market needed a correction. We got bucked harder than we should have because the government tied us down instead of allowing us to adjust.

It seems to me that we are always getting bucked hard by government.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Everything will go back to normal. Not sure where the 40% of jobs aren't coming back. I'd like to know what type of jobs those are and why they wouldn't come back..

I'm not sure where you have been, but the economy has been shut down for 2 months where I live at. Most small businesses cannot survive that.
Not sure where you live, but maybe it is different there...

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Good luck with that. Lawyers are gonna get rich fighting that one.

They can't force you to get a vaccine.

Or, they can tell employers to not allow non-vaccinated employees to work... set it up as some kind of OSHA regulation or something like that. So technically, you are not being mandated to take the vaccine.

We are in a whole new world where anything is on the table.

 

[vols40]

Or, they can tell employers to not allow non-vaccinated employees to work... set it up as some kind of OSHA regulation or something like that. So technically, you are not being mandated to take the vaccine.

We are in a whole new world where anything is on the table.

As crazy as this sounds this is how the public should think about things

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

I am flabbergasted that we’ve made up all this needless debt out of thin air for over a decade and inflation hasn’t gotten out of control.

The stock market, housing market, and college tuition... that is where your inflation was...

Now look for it in groceries and anything that has long supply chains that reach to Asia... and the stock market.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

How many times will you miss the fact that I said yes ultimately the president is responsible. But you can answer this with your big ole brain....
Your the president of a major corporation and one of your underlings come to you with a doomsday scenario such as this. You take that advice and close up only to find out 2 months later that it was 180° off. Do you resign or fire the MFer who advocated closing it down?
Fauci is in this for Fauci. He honestly believes that he is the smartest guy in the room. And I for one was glad to see Rand Paul call him out for it.
Wrong prediction after wrong prediction after wrong prediction. He is right. What can Dr Fauci claim to have been right about during this pandemic? And the last question is not a rhetorical question. WTF has he been right about?

He is an American hero.

 

[vols40]

He is an American hero.

His time is up. As I said earlier give him his watch and thank him.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

I better get paid back for the bonds I hold

They will pay you back every penny they owe you. Seriously, they will.

They'll just start up the printing press and pay you back.

The question you may want to ask is how much purchasing power will those dollars have when that is all said and done?

Oh, the same story with Social security. You'll get paid every penny they owe you in that scheme, also.

 

[NorthDallas40]

The stock market, housing market, and college tuition... that is where your inflation was...

Now look for it in groceries and anything that has long supply chains that reach to Asia... and the stock market.

Yeah I know you’re theory we’ve gone over it. I don’t call debt inflation.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

And what happens when the banks start to teeter and credit suddenly freezes up or becomes too expensive? Less cars, new refrigerators, etc.

Well, this is the flaw in our economic system right now. We are built on an idea of ever increasing consumer consumption, which means that in order to fuel that consumption, we need an equal or greater growth in the rate of debt.

We need for consumers to rollover cars avery 4-5 years to keep the Ponzi machine running. if you suddenly have a situation where consumers are not engaged in the same amount of consumption (driving their cars for 8-10 years), then the system collapses.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Yeah I know you’re theory we’ve gone over it. I don’t call debt inflation.

When did I call debt inflation?

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

I have a friend that works for Nissan, mid-level management, and he thinks that there will be several layoffs between the Smyrna and Decherd plants shortly after they reopen. He told me that Nissan has been over producing for a while now and this little recession was going to blow things up. I imagine this to be the case with several manufacturing jobs in the near the future.

No s^^t... just go to Cool Springs Mall area and you will see several parking lots stacked with Nissans and Infinitis.

 

[PointGuard]

Early on, when I was driving home from work and passing all of these small restaurants and bars -- not franchised, just stand alone places with regular crowds -- that was my thought. They cannot endure the lost income and have no way to fund ramping up a re-open even when its allowed.

Will someone come in and buy it at a huge discount? Put up the money to pass inspection and buy supplies and pay people up front to be there when it can reopen?

There is a tremendous underground cash economy. Restaurants who squirreled away unreported cash will survive longer than those who did not

Ditto on other cash businesses

 

[NorthDallas40]

When did I call debt inflation?

When you called the stock market, the housing market, and college tuition inflation ?