The economy post-Covid

#129
#129
Rasputin_Vol said:
You're not factoring in how long it will take after all of these small businesses go belly up before they get replaced. And, that is assuming they do get replaced and not automated out of existence. And just because a restaurant is "open" that doesn't mean that everything is all good and gravy. They lost 2 months of income.

I'm really not sure why you can't understand the seriousness of this calamity. Even though you are in TL Metro, you do realize that not all areas had as loose regulations as GA, correct? That is something else you have to factor in.
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I look at it as a natural disaster that just eventually goes away. Hurricanes come and go and destroy huge swaths of land and kill people, and a few months later life goes on. The only place I've ever been that had decades lasting impact from a disaster was Homestead AFB, but thats because the government just said F it.
 
#132
#132
Dow futures down 240 points as U.S.-China trade tensions ratchet up, U.S. retail sales tank

Do we really want to further exacerbate the trade war with China right now? Is it in our nation's best interest to beginning unraveling the relationships with one of our principle trade partners because they violate or IP, are communist, etc.?

I don't know the answer, but I do know that a red-hot trade war right now would really hurt our economy. Maybe it's for the best in the long run, I don't know. I'm not sure how I feel about China.
 
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#133
#133
MontyPython said:
Dow futures down 240 points as U.S.-China trade tensions ratchet up, U.S. retail sales tank

Do we really want to further exacerbate the trade war with China right now? Is it in our nation's best interest to beginning unraveling the relationships with the major trade party because they violate or IP, are communist, etc.?

I don't know the answer, but I do know that a red-hot trade war right now would really hurt our economy. Maybe it's for the best in the long run, I don't know. I'm not sure how I feel about China.
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What are you not sure about China in regards to your feelings?
 
#135
#135
MontyPython said:
Considering both commerce, human rights and political beliefs, is our trading relationship with China in our best long term interest?
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I think you know the answer to that. I would say that it would be helpful to have a trading relationship of some kind but not the one that we have now, where we have given up way too much in order to buy cheaper goods. We should never allow ourselves to be at the mercy of another country when it comes to essential products, be it oil, pharma, rare earth, steel or. . . toilet paper. Particularly when that country behaves in a way that Communist China does.
 
#136
#136
37L1 said:
I think you know the answer to that. I would say that it would be helpful to have a trading relationship of some kind but not the one that we have now, where we have given up way too much in order to buy cheaper goods. We should never allow ourselves to be at the mercy of another country when it comes to essential products, be it oil, pharma, rare earth, steel or. . . toilet paper. Particularly when that country behaves in a way that Communist China does.
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You make good points.
 
#138
#138
IMO, a lot of the "the world will never be the same!" calls are overblown. Most things will eventually go back to how they were pre-COVID, however many will come back slowly. I think people will eventually get back to flying like they used to, even for business travel (I think people are already sick of Zoom calls), but it might take 5 years.

One area I do see a permanent change with though is white collar commercial office space. Many companies are still in the midst of a 2 month plus trial run with working from home and are finding that operations have had minimal or no disruption. Stigmas that a lot of companies have against WFH are going away. They are looking to cut costs anyway, and reducing excess/unneeded office space is a great way to do it. That could have a permanent effect on the economies of urban cores. Many bars, restaurants, etc. are able to exist because they are located next to office buildings people commute to everyday. Many residential neighborhoods in and around urban cores are so desirable/expensive, in part, because they are located close to where people work. If "being close to work" is no longer necessary, I see it permanently changing those things.
 
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#140
#140
MontyPython said:
So, the breakthroughs we've made with China dating back to the Nixon administration... a fool's errand? An experiment tried, but failed? Doomed from the start?

Also, this is awkward coming from me, but I'm not being sarcastic. I really haven't solidified an opinion.
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When I was younger, I was 100% on board the "we're f***ed, China is the next world power, China will ultimately screw us when they become able to purchase themselves what they produce instead of needing to have the US buy it, etc.) train.

The older I've gotten, I think that's wrong. Our relationship with them is complicated and in some ways codependent. However, they actually need us more than they need them. China cannot project power outside its own sphere of influence, and that's bad because they are reliant on access to global markets. We do that for them. They have demographic problems - their 35-year-long one child policy is coming back to bite them in the ass. They have serious issues within their own banking system, even worse than ours, and their interest in buying things like US real estate is a sign of capital flight from their own country, not coming to "take over" our own.
 
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#141
#141
MontyPython said:
So, the breakthroughs we've made with China dating back to the Nixon administration... a fool's errand? An experiment tried, but failed? Doomed from the start?

Also, this is awkward coming from me, but I'm not being sarcastic. I really haven't solidified an opinion.
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Yes.

Cheap sh!t at Walmart isn't worth Chinas most favored nation status. Hell..just the fact that we allow China, our legitimate enemy, to manufacture all of our medicine should be a HUGE red flag. The US, like most Western nations, have generously given their enemies the tools to destroy them for decades.
 
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#142
#142
05_never_again said:
When I was younger, I was 100% on board the "we're f***ed, China is the next world power, China will ultimately screw us when they become able to purchase themselves what they produce instead of needing to have the US buy it, etc.) train.

The older I've gotten, I think that's wrong. Our relationship with them is complicated and in some ways codependent. However, they actually need us more than they need them. China cannot project power outside its own sphere of influence, and that's bad because they are reliant on access to global markets. We do that for them. They have demographic problems - their 35-year-long one child policy is coming back to bite them in the ass. They have serious issues within their own banking system, even worse than ours, and their interest in buying things like US real estate is a sign of capital flight from their own country, not coming to "take over" our own.
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Good points.

When I was younger, Japan was going to take our spot as the world leader. Heh. Nope.

Honestly, I don't fear China for several reasons... the primary of them is they are generally a docile lot. Let's face it... we Americans are very pugnacious people. We love fighting. It's what we do, and we're damn ******* good at it. But the history of China is quite the opposite. Zen is an introspective, thoughtful perspective.

In the grand scheme, I think the biggest flaw in China is communism. Should the people revolt and it become a pseudo democracy, they'll take our crown based on sheer numbers. But... will that ever happen.
 
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#143
#143
Japan stole our technology and could only improve on the quality part of it based on American Edward Deming's teachings. China stole our technology and could only improve on our price structure. Nowhere in the Asian culture do they have the ability to originate or innovate without stealing western culture and technology. They can't touch us once we cut them off from our universities and our technology. I'm done with these thieves and I think the Americans that actually work for a living are too.
 
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#145
#145
0nelilreb said:
Not really . All Union / Company contracts ive ever seen or worked with have emergency clauses in them to allow the company to override the contract if needed . ( I guess I should put that this is purely anecdotal ) .
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Do you have any examples of times this override has actually been used in the past 30 years?

Curious about the clauses and if they apply to communicable disease or just a direct loss to a manufacturing plant such as an earthquake taking it out so its no longer useable.

Also, if these clauses are triggered does it take uaw payroll off the books while manufacturing limits are reduced or does pay still happen?
 
#146
#146
MontyPython said:
Dow futures down 240 points as U.S.-China trade tensions ratchet up, U.S. retail sales tank

Do we really want to further exacerbate the trade war with China right now? Is it in our nation's best interest to beginning unraveling the relationships with one of our principle trade partners because they violate or IP, are communist, etc.?

I don't know the answer, but I do know that a red-hot trade war right now would really hurt our economy. Maybe it's for the best in the long run, I don't know. I'm not sure how I feel about China.
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If I was pounding you in the arse every night after you fell asleep but I was helping pay your rent would you throw me out now or keep letting me pound you in the arse till you found a new room mate?
 
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#148
#148
MontyPython said:
Dow futures down 240 points as U.S.-China trade tensions ratchet up, U.S. retail sales tank

Do we really want to further exacerbate the trade war with China right now? Is it in our nation's best interest to beginning unraveling the relationships with one of our principle trade partners because they violate or IP, are communist, etc.?

I don't know the answer, but I do know that a red-hot trade war right now would really hurt our economy. Maybe it's for the best in the long run, I don't know. I'm not sure how I feel about China.
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This post aged well.

And yeah, we do. We need to double or triple the tariffs until Apple and other American companies that do business in China feel the pain and move elsewhere. Don't worry about it hurting the economy, the ChinaFluey has done enough damage that a little more won't be noticed. Strike while the iron is hot.
 
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#150
#150
lukeneyland said:
I think that commercial real estate will suffer for a long time. Many business will revaluate the necessity of having their employees work in corporate office spaces. I think working from home will become the norm for many industries in the not too distant future. People that have stake in these sorts of properties might well have one foot in the grave at this point
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Renovations are going to spike.
 
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