I think their inside guys would have a field day against our interior defense, based on what I saw this weekend. If our posts get back to playing as they did the majority of the SEC season, we can certainly beat the Cards.
The Cards play excellent half court defense. But they really can't score that easily. They are pretty much the diametric opposite of UT in that respect. Their point guard play is suspect. Edgar Sosa is their best pg and he's seem confused all year. They have two guys that can shoot the trey (Jerry Smith and Andre Mcgee) and one guy who we want to shoot as many treys as possible (Terrence Williams, or twill...he misses them, a lot).
The offense basically runs through Padgett. His backup is Derrick Caracter, who makes at least one bad decision every minute he is in the game. They can't score without Padgett in the game. Period. Louisville is barely a tournament quality team without Padgett. If we get David Padgett in foul trouble, we win.
I actually like our chances against the 'ville. The way they can beat us is with their interior play, as hat alluded to. One guy that is key for them on the interior (in addition to Padgett) is Earl Clark. His play is somewhat similar to T Smith, though I think T Smith is the better of the two. But with both Padgett and Earl Clark in the game, they have the edge on us as far as interior play is concerned. The play of B Dub and Duke is key in this game. B Dub will likely get a lot of minutes, as I think he can do a good job on Padgett.
Terrence Williams is not a shooter, as I've said. But he is an excellent defender and rebounder. We don't have anybody as athletic as twill. He could be a difference maker.
But I do think we can win this game, because we can simply score easier than they can. UL's biggest weakness was exposed at the end of the game against G-town and Pitt: when they need to score, they can't necessarily do it. They don't have a clear go-to guy on the offensive end.
I will post much more about this game if it comes to fruition.