The Numbers Thread

#601
#601
Rifleman said:
I'd say blue-shirting is less likely, sure, but it is not off the table. By definition, it only applies to recruits that won't be on our radar as they can't have any recruiting contact with the staff.

Grayshirting could be on the table for 1 or 2. We will also likely have some attrition from our commit list before NSD, either prompted by the recruit or the staff.

So we will certainly have 4-8 signees not currently committed to Tennessee, maybe more depending on attrition. It is a looong way to February and a lot could shift depending on what happens on the field over the next few months.

Still, I am not anxious about whatever happens as we are lucky to have arguably the best recruiting staff in the nation now.
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I think we end up with about 26-27 and gray shirt one or two
 
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#602
#602
zansdad said:
Nothing you said explains how UT is "obviously" going to get around the 25 limit. They can't back count. I'll believe UT blue-shirts a guy when I see it. And I don't think 4-star and high 3-star guys are going to gray-shirts. Attrition from the current roster applies only to the 85 limit not the 25. Guys currently committed not actually signing isn't getting around the 25 limit. It's simply replacing one recruit with a different recruit. You seemed to imply the UT will sign more than 25 and I'm just curios how that happens in your mind. Or maybe I misunderstood you when you said there where obvious ways to get above 25 in this class.
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Sorry, I likely was not clear enough. When I said we would obviously avoid going over the limit, I did not mean to say that we would obviously sign more than 25 but do so using some sort of trickery. That said, if an opportunity presents itself to greyshirt or blueshirt someone, I'm sure the staff will evaluate that at that time.

There's just a lot that can happen between now and 2015. For example, sometimes a good recruit greyshirts because of an injury that requires a lot of time to heal and they do not want to burn their redshirt, or they may need to get some academics in order before they get on a college campus. To be clear, I'm not saying that will happen, just that it is obviously one of the several things that could happen.

Mainly, what I am thinking and hoped to convey is:

1) taking 25 will not cause a roster crunch in 2015 because normal roster attrition will keep us at or under 85

2) we still have room for a number of the top prospects who we are in on to get on board in this class
 
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#603
#603
Rifleman said:
Sorry, I likely was not clear enough. When I said we would obviously avoid going over the limit, I did not mean to say that we would obviously sign more than 25 but do so using some sort of trickery. That said, if an opportunity presents itself to greyshirt or blueshirt someone, I'm sure the staff will evaluate that at that time.

There's just a lot that can happen between now and 2015. For example, sometimes a good recruit greyshirts because of an injury that requires a lot of time to heal and they do not want to burn their redshirt, or they may need to get some academics in order before they get on a college campus. To be clear, I'm not saying that will happen, just that it is obviously one of the several things that could happen.

Mainly, what I am thinking and hoped to convey is:

1) taking 25 will not cause a roster crunch in 2015 because normal roster attrition will keep us at or under 85

2) we still have room for a number of the top prospects who we are in on to get on board in this class
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While attrition is always a possibility, it's always risky to over sign by say 7-8 kids in a year and then your left hoping enough kids decide to leave UT on their own so you don't have to look like a scumbag and force them out. Over signing by 2-3 is very low risk and a lot of coaches do it. When you're looking at over signing by a large number, IMO you're setting yourself up for problems. JMO
 
#604
#604
LebanonVolunteer said:
While attrition is always a possibility, it's always risky to over sign by say 7-8 kids in a year and then your left hoping enough kids decide to leave UT on their own so you don't have to look like a scumbag and force them out. Over signing by 2-3 is very low risk and a lot of coaches do it. When you're looking at over signing by a large number, IMO you're setting yourself up for problems. JMO
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I really don't see pulling in a full class this year as over-signing and do not see much potential risk. An attrition of 8 players given the youth of our roster is not a lot. That would get us to 85 if we sign a class of 25. I'll bet we'll be under 85 this time next year, just as we are 4 under right now.

Maybe we will be more settled soon, once all the players are recruits of the current staff, and the attrition will subside.

Stanford, for instance, has long-term stability and the best attrition rates in college football and their best 5 year period saw them signing only 102 players.

That is really amazing, especially since Alabama signed 135 players in the same 5 year period.

Of course, Alabama won 3 National Championships during that time.
 
#607
#607
Rifleman said:
I really don't see pulling in a full class this year as over-signing and do not see much potential risk. An attrition of 8 players given the youth of our roster is not a lot. That would get us to 85 if we sign a class of 25. I'll bet we'll be under 85 this time next year, just as we are 4 under right now.

Maybe we will be more settled soon, once all the players are recruits of the current staff, and the attrition will subside.

Stanford, for instance, has long-term stability and the best attrition rates in college football and their best 5 year period saw them signing only 102 players.

That is really amazing, especially since Alabama signed 135 players in the same 5 year period.

Of course, Alabama won 3 National Championships during that time.
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Losing 8-10 kids a year is in no way ideal and or should be something that is expected. Need to consider that the recruits are now almost all CBJ's and not left over from previous coaching staffs. I would think wanting to see the kids succeed vs processing them out is something the staff would like to see play out especially with them now being their guys. As I have mentioned before if you look at SEC recruiting at UGA, LSU, UF, AU, and others, they have all had classes over the last few years with 19, 20, 21, 22 kids in them. They are not over signing the maximum like this board seems to think should just be a given every year. Large classes due to back counting is one thing. Over signing a large number of kids in a class is IMO asking for trouble.
 
#608
#608
Catbone said:
With jefferson out, do we take a CB in his place?
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Maybe it won't be Abernathy OR Martin now. Or possible this means that Settle is a take for sure. Or maybe another LB or Safety. So many possibilities. Would honestly love to see us pick up another WDE. Can't get enough pass rush.
 
#609
#609
Catbone said:
With jefferson out, do we take a CB in his place?
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Tough to say for sure till we see what the coaches end up doing. Maybe the coaches knew Van was not going to be a Vol and Boulware was the next "best available" on their board they felt they could lock up quickly.
 
#611
#611
LebanonVolunteer said:
Losing 8-10 kids a year is in no way ideal and or should be something that is expected. Need to consider that the recruits are now almost all CBJ's and not left over from previous coaching staffs. I would think wanting to see the kids succeed vs processing them out is something the staff would like to see play out especially with them now being their guys. As I have mentioned before if you look at SEC recruiting at UGA, LSU, UF, AU, and others, they have all had classes over the last few years with 19, 20, 21, 22 kids in them. They are not over signing the maximum like this board seems to think should just be a given every year. Large classes due to back counting is one thing. Over signing a large number of kids in a class is IMO asking for trouble.
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Reality:

2010 Class = 28 Signees - 2 are left
2011 Class = 27 Signees - 11 are left
2012 Class = 22 Signees - 11 are left
2013 Class = 23 Signees - 18 are left

2014 - Coach Jones' 1st class of his own recruits had 32 signees

2015 - 23 Commits and the staff is still recruiting hard.
Assuming only these 23 sign and there is no attrition that would put us at 91 scholarship players.

Take from that what you will.

I agree absolutely that the reality we face is not ideal, but it is a lot closer to it than it was two years ago.
 
#612
#612
Rifleman said:
Sorry, I likely was not clear enough. When I said we would obviously avoid going over the limit, I did not mean to say that we would obviously sign more than 25 but do so using some sort of trickery. That said, if an opportunity presents itself to greyshirt or blueshirt someone, I'm sure the staff will evaluate that at that time.

There's just a lot that can happen between now and 2015. For example, sometimes a good recruit greyshirts because of an injury that requires a lot of time to heal and they do not want to burn their redshirt, or they may need to get some academics in order before they get on a college campus. To be clear, I'm not saying that will happen, just that it is obviously one of the several things that could happen.

Mainly, what I am thinking and hoped to convey is:

1) taking 25 will not cause a roster crunch in 2015 because normal roster attrition will keep us at or under 85

2) we still have room for a number of the top prospects who we are in on to get on board in this class
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Ok. I'm with you now.
 
#613
#613
LebanonVolunteer said:
While attrition is always a possibility, it's always risky to over sign by say 7-8 kids in a year and then your left hoping enough kids decide to leave UT on their own so you don't have to look like a scumbag and force them out. Over signing by 2-3 is very low risk and a lot of coaches do it. When you're looking at over signing by a large number, IMO you're setting yourself up for problems. JMO
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We know some schools pay kids to go there. I wonder if a school has ever payed a kid to leave? Not saying we would that, just wondering.
 
#617
#617
By the looks of how many Freshmen and Sophomores are in the 2 Deep just announced for Week 1, I think non-performing upperclassmen will start to see the writing on the wall and will graduate and/or leave the team. I think we easily sign up to the 25 limit this year and won't have to worry about the 85.
 
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#618
#618
UTChicagoV said:
By the looks of how many Freshmen and Sophomores are in the 2 Deep just announced for Week 1, I think non-performing upperclassmen will start to see the writing on the wall and will graduate and/or leave the team. I think we easily sign up to the 25 limit this year and won't have to worry about the 85.
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Unless all the reports saying Swafford's scholarship counts toward the 2015 class was all wrong, 24 is the maximum the staff can sign to a scholarship this cycle.

I suppose you could call it 25 WITH Swafford.

No Jefferson, news that the staff wanted to sign 1 true CB in 2015, plus Jakob, and Berry moving to LB could very well set things up to be a Richmond, Tuttle finish. 24 commitments locked in before Oct 1st. A quiet Nov, Dec, Jan recruiting wise, I'll take it.
 
#620
#620
LebanonVolunteer said:
Unless all the reports saying Swafford's scholarship counts toward the 2015 class was all wrong, 24 is the maximum the staff can sign to a scholarship this cycle.

I suppose you could call it 25 WITH Swafford.

No Jefferson, news that the staff wanted to sign 1 true CB in 2015, plus Jakob, and Berry moving to LB could very well set things up to be a Richmond, Tuttle finish. 24 commitments locked in before Oct 1st. A quiet Nov, Dec, Jan recruiting wise, I'll take it.
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I thought if a walk-on went on scholarship after the 2nd year then it didn't count against the 25 counters for that cycle.
 
#622
#622
zansdad said:
I thought if a walk-on went on scholarship after the 2nd year then it didn't count against the 25 counters for that cycle.
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I found this:

As it currently stands with the NCAA, when a walk-on is rewarded with a scholarship, it counts against the general 85 scholarships the football program is allowed. However, if a walk-on player is given the same benefit within their first two years, it not only counts against the general 85 scholarships, but against the 25 scholarships allowed for the following season’s recruiting class.

With Swafford now on scholarship going into his 2nd year, it looks like he would count toward the 85 plus against the 2015 class making the #24.
 
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