The Official “Regular Posters of the Basketball Forum” Thread

#18,830
#18,830
IndianapolisVol said:
Take away Dalton and compare this roster to last year’s roster. Everyone would agree that we had more scoring potential on last year’s team. Yet, we scored less than 70 PPG in about half of our contests and averaged exactly 70 PPG for the duration of the season.
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I would take the other side of that argument.

Guards
2023: Zeigler, Vescovi, Key
2024: Zeigler, Vescovi, Gainey, Dilione

I'd take 2024 every day. Vescovi's ORTG is virtually the same as it was last year, he just has a smaller role with DK on the team. Gainey/Key might be a wash in the box score, but I'd argue that Gainey's (+ Dilione's occasionally) ability to help run the point and give ZZ a rest has filled a gap that really hurt us last year (crazy how bad our offensive flow looked with Mashack running the point at times). Add to that having Zeigler fully healthy after missing the postseason last year and this position group isn't all that close.

Wings
2023: JJJ, Phillips, Mashack
2024: JJJ, Mashack

JJJ is the same player he was last year. Phillips was a total non-factor offensively late in the year (less than 6 ppg in the last 14 games, including 5 pts in 3 tournament games). Losing that production is more than outweighed by Mashack going from 95->118 in ORTG imo.

Bigs
2023: Nkamhoua, Aidoo, Plavsic, Awaka
2024: Aidoo, Awaka, Estrella

This is probably the closest group, but the best player here is 2024 Aidoo. Nkamhoua was wildly inconsistent but at least he occasionally gave you a chance to win a game by himself so that loss hurts. Plavsic was good for a bucket now and then but also a few really dumb fouls.
IndianapolisVol said:
55 was an exaggeration, and IIRC was even suggested as a question. However, the total would certainly be less than it was last year.
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Already looked at this from a personnel perspective and explained why I disagree. This team (without DK) isn't different enough from last year's to go from 71 ppg to 55 ppg. Not even close.

From a team stats perspective it's an even easier argument to make. Look at NCST/Mississippi (less efficient, less volume DK - both Q2 wins, and so we don't have to argue the merits of beating Georgia Southern...) These were our #2 and #3 best offensive performances of the season according to BartTorvik (and are adjusted for defensive strength). Zeigler/James combined for 43 in the first. Zeigler/Aidoo combined for 41 in the second.

The offensive talent outside of Knecht is there just as much as it was last year. They just need to continue to learn how to coexist with him.
 
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#18,831
#18,831
Vols410 said:
I would take the other side of that argument.

Guards
2023: Zeigler, Vescovi, Key
2024: Zeigler, Vescovi, Gainey, Dilione

I'd take 2024 every day. Vescovi's ORTG is virtually the same as it was last year, he just has a smaller role with DK on the team. Gainey/Key might be a wash in the box score, but I'd argue that Gainey's (+ Dilione's occasionally) ability to help run the point and give ZZ a rest has filled a gap that really hurt us last year (crazy how bad our offensive flow looked with Mashack running the point at times). Add to that having Zeigler fully healthy after missing the postseason last year and this position group isn't all that close.

Wings
2023: JJJ, Phillips, Mashack
2024: JJJ, Mashack

JJJ is the same player he was last year. Phillips was a total non-factor offensively late in the year (less than 6 ppg in the last 14 games, including 5 pts in 3 tournament games). Losing that production is more than outweighed by Mashack going from 95->118 in ORTG imo.

Bigs
2023: Nkamhoua, Aidoo, Plavsic, Awaka
2024: Aidoo, Awaka, Estrella

This is probably the closest group, but the best player here is 2024 Aidoo. Nkamhoua was wildly inconsistent but at least he occasionally gave you a chance to win a game by himself so that loss hurts. Plavsic was good for a bucket now and then but also a few really dumb fouls.

Already looked at this from a personnel perspective and explained why I disagree. This team (without DK) isn't different enough from last year's to go from 71 ppg to 55 ppg. Not even close.

From a team stats perspective it's an even easier argument to make. Look at NCST/Mississippi (less efficient, less volume DK - both Q2 wins, and so we don't have to argue the merits of beating Georgia Southern...) These were our #2 and #3 best offensive performances of the season according to BartTorvik (and are adjusted for defensive strength). Zeigler/James combined for 43 in the first. Zeigler/Aidoo combined for 41 in the second.

The offensive talent outside of Knecht is there just as much as it was last year. They just need to continue to learn how to coexist with him.
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-I’d take Key over Gainey at this point. Both had very low FG% and while I like Gainey’s willingness to put a lot of shots up (something that not many others on this team have) Key impacted the game more defensively, slightly out-hustles him, slightly better rebounder and passer.

-I don’t totally disagree with your assessment for the wing players but I do think Phillips > Mashack. Mashack has taken a big step forward this season and yes Philips was MIA towards the end of last season, but he’s still an NBA talent that scored in double figures in half of his games. JJJ is averaging less PPG than last season, but he’s also taking less shots per game, and his FG% is virtually the same, so that’s a wash.

-Last year’s bigs were a better overall unit with more depth and significantly more physicality than this year’s.

Again, 55 was an exaggeration and that figure was even posed in the form of a question in my original post. However, this squad, without Dalton, would average 5-7 PPG less than last season, if not 7-10.
 
#18,833
#18,833
IndianapolisVol said:
-I’d take Key over Gainey at this point. Both had very low FG% and while I like Gainey’s willingness to put a lot of shots up (something that not many others on this team have) Key impacted the game more defensively, slightly out-hustles him, slightly better rebounder and passer.

-I don’t totally disagree with your assessment for the wing players but I do think Phillips > Mashack. Mashack has taken a big step forward this season and yes Philips was MIA towards the end of last season, but he’s still an NBA talent that scored in double figures in half of his games. JJJ is averaging less PPG than last season, but he’s also taking less shots per game, and his FG% is virtually the same, so that’s a wash.

-Last year’s bigs were a better overall unit with more depth and significantly more physicality than this year’s.

Again, 55 was an exaggeration and that figure was even posed in the form of a question in my original post. However, this squad, without Dalton, would average 5-7 PPG less than last season, if not 7-10.
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Those are all fair points to disagree on, though I do think you're overstating the difference; our performances against NCST/Mississippi indicate that. Key/Gainey had similar stats but Key couldn't run the point at all. Phillips may've been more talented than Mashack but he was hurt. Last year's bigs were deeper but none of them were very good and Aidoo has been great this year. None of those differences add up to 5-10 ppg.

Nothing new to add here though, agree to disagree I suppose. Hopefully Knecht stays healthy so these comparisons remain largely irrelevant anyway.
 
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#18,834
#18,834
IndianapolisVol said:
I don’t understand you and the simpleton @Col_Cathcart rehashing a back and forth I had with BTO. I’ll give you credit because at least you’ll reply to my post directly unlike Col.

My point has always been that if Dalton goes down the team is screwed. You’re apparently too deep in the mud to see that.

If you think this team wins 24-25 games and makes it past the first or second round without Dalton Knecht you’re crazy.
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You can say the same thing about essentially every team in college basketball regarding their best player.
Purdue - Edey
Kansas - Dickinson
UNC - Bacot
And UConn looked pretty average when their 7 footer was injured earlier this season.

You could even apply it to the NBA, NFL and College football.

Yes - if we lose our best player we will be a worse team than if he is healthy all season. Not too hard to understand that. Doesn’t mean we would totally suck though.
 
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#18,835
#18,835
CornbreadVol said:
Okay so besides Knecht who would y'all rather have take the last shot? Vescovi? ZZ?
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Depends if they’re tied, down 1, 2, or 3. ZZ driving to the basket trying to draw a foul or pull a double team (with an open teammate somewhere) might be my choice if tied or down 1. If down 3 I might actually look for JJJ. I think with his length and the opponent guarding the 3PL he might be able to get the best look. If down 3 the percentages are going to be pretty low no matter what. If down 2, just whoever gets open first with everybody crashing the boards. Maybe Aido can get a put back.
 
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#18,836
#18,836
Thunder Good-Oil said:
Depends if they’re tied, down 1, 2, or 3. ZZ driving to the basket trying to draw a foul or pull a double team (with an open teammate somewhere) might be my choice if tied or down 1. If down 3 I might actually look for JJJ. I think with his length and the opponent guarding the 3PL he might be able to get the best look. If down 3 the percentages are going to be pretty low no matter what. If down 2, just whoever gets open first with everybody crashing the boards. Maybe Aido can get a put back.
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If Knecht isn’t taking the final shot, then I think it has to be Aidoo or Vescovi. I would ISO Knecht and design something for him to attack the basket and draw the help side defense. He could then look to dump it to Aidoo if we need a 2 or kick out to Vescovi if we need a 3. Not sure I trust anyone else, even ZZ, to hit the crunch time shot.
 
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#18,837
#18,837
CornbreadVol said:
Okay so besides Knecht who would y'all rather have take the last shot? Vescovi? ZZ?
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Besides Knecht and only down 2, that left handed jump hook from Aidoo would be my first look. Down 3, I'm asking ZZ to make something happen and everybody else clear out and spot up. Unless Lamonte Turner is in the building... lol
 
#18,838
#18,838
If not DK shooting, if it's a clean look I'd take my chances with Santi burying the 3. If we're down 1 I'll take my chances with ZZ driving to the rim off an Aidoo screen. I like the options that creates, a layup or floater if he beats his guy and no one helps. A potential foul and him at the line. A potential lob to Aidoo if both defenders go with ZZ.

If it's a catch and shoot over someone for deep I'll probably take JJJ.
 
#18,840
#18,840
TheMookieMonster said:
If Knecht isn’t taking the final shot, then I think it has to be Aidoo or Vescovi. I would ISO Knecht and design something for him to attack the basket and draw the help side defense. He could then look to dump it to Aidoo if we need a 2 or kick out to Vescovi if we need a 3. Not sure I trust anyone else, even ZZ, to hit the crunch time shot.
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I think that the refs need to be read by the coaches as well. If they haven’t been calling fouls then sending ZZ to the rim is a VERY low percentage option. He’s not going to finish. When he does it’s usually after a defensive breakdown a couple of times a game. He’s not going to get a good look at the rim late in a game. But depending on who’s wearing a whistle he has a chance of drawing a foul.

For Santi it will have to be after a very well run and designed play. Defenses are going to be looking for him. That’s why I like JJJ. He could be overlooked.

Putting Mashack in to drive is a good option if it’s a tie or 1 or 2 point deficit.
 
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#18,841
#18,841
Thunder Good-Oil said:
I think that the refs need to be read by the coaches as well. If they haven’t been calling fouls then sending ZZ to the rim is a VERY low percentage option. He’s not going to finish. When he does it’s usually after a defensive breakdown a couple of times a game. He’s not going to get a good look at the rim late in a game. But depending on who’s wearing a whistle he has a chance of drawing a foul.

For Santi it will have to be after a very well run and designed play. Defenses are going to be looking for him. That’s why I like JJJ. He could be overlooked.

Putting Mashack in to drive is a good option if it’s a tie or 1 or 2 point deficit.
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I think at this point in the season, I would trust Mashack over JJJ if we need a 3. He has taken fewer of them but has proven to be more efficient. JJJ has just lost all confidence in his 3-point shot. I can’t remember the last time he made one.
 
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#18,842
#18,842
TheMookieMonster said:
I think at this point in the season, I would trust Mashack over JJJ if we need a 3. He has taken fewer of them but has proven to be more efficient. JJJ has just lost all confidence in his 3-point shot. I can’t remember the last time he made one.
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I like JJJ in the desperation 3 situation over Mashack just because he has a little more length. It’s going to be a low percentage conversion no matter what when the defense is expecting an attempt to drain a 3. I think that JJJ actually gets decent looks - he’s just not getting them to drop often right now.
 
#18,848
#18,848
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