The Official Braves Thread Of Volnation

[VolinArizona]

Here is the rundown of which Braves are playing the best:

C. Jones 37.8 VORP
E. Renteria 36.7 VORP
B. McCann 29.9 VORP
A. Jones 28.9 VORP
A. Laroche 16.1 VORP
W. Betemit 11.6 VORP (traded)
M. Giles 8.7 VORP
M. Diaz 4.9 VORP


J. Smoltz 40.0 VORP
K. Ray 15.5 VORP
C. Paronto 11.3 VORP
O. Villarreal 8.4 VORP
T. Yates 8.3 VORP
H. Ramirez 8.0 VORP
T. Hudson 6.1 VORP
C. James 5.0 VORP
M. Remlinger 4.3 VORP
M. McBride 3.8 VORP
B. Wickman 2.1 VORP

Everyone else is playing right at replacement player level, which is why the Braves are so far out in the standings.

 

[VolinArizona]

The Braves now have two decent closers in Baez and Wickman. Their bullpen keeps getting better.

Odd move for the Dodgers... they picked up Baez from the DRays to be their closer because of health concerns with Gagne... Gagne is out for the year and now they shipped off Baez.

Baez is not that great. His VORP before coming over to Atlanta was 4.4, which means so far this season he's been worth .4 of a win over what a replacement level player could do. Wickman had a 3.9 VORP before being traded.

 

[tidwell]

I have absolutely no idea what a VORP is. Baez is still as good if not better than anyone else coming out of the Atlanta bullpen.

 

[VolinArizona]

I have absolutely no idea what a VORP is. Baez is still as good if not better than anyone else coming out of the Atlanta bullpen.

He's not even close to the best reliever the Braves have.

 

[tidwell]

He's proven to be better than most if not all of the Braves' relievers in the majors.

Save for Wickman, Baez is much more experienced than most of the Braves' relievers. Show me another reliever in the Braves' pen that has pitched consistently in the majors for the last 6 years and posted a 3.75 ERA with 111 saves while playing for perennial powers at the time Cleveland and Tampa Bay.

 

[VolinArizona]

He's proven to be better than most if not all of the Braves' relievers in the majors.

No, not at all.

VORP is a statistic that stands for Value Over Replacement Player. It takes all of those stats we look at (ERA, WHIP, etc) and the ones we don't (BABIP, k/9, bb/9, etc) and makes one great statistic that compares that player to what a replacement player would be.

Official definition: "Value Over Replacement Player. The number of runs contributed beyond what a replacement-level player at the same position would contribute if given the same percentage of team plate appearances. VORP scores do not consider the quality of a player's defense."


Someone with a VORP of 10 has roughly given that team 1 more win than a replacement player. Baez's total 2006 VORP so far is around 5, which means he's worth half a win more than a replacement player.

One win in baseball is huge, so you can see the difference between Baez's VORP of 5 and Ken Ray's 15.5 VORP.

Ray, Paronto, Villarreal, and Yates are all better this season.

 

[VolinArizona]

He's proven to be better than most if not all of the Braves' relievers in the majors.

Save for Wickman, Baez is much more experienced than most of the Braves' relievers. Show me another reliever in the Braves' pen that has pitched consistently in the majors for the last 6 years and posted a 3.75 ERA with 111 saves while playing for perennial powers at the time Cleveland and Tampa Bay.

So, do you still consider Adrian Beltre a player worth $12m+ per year?

 

[tidwell]

That shows how useless a stat like that is, especially for relievers. The team has to come from behind or score more runs more often than not for a reliever to get the win. I'd take a proven commodity over several years than I would over some of those Braves' relievers that split time between Atlanta, Richmond, and Mississippi.

 

[tidwell]

So, do you still consider Adrian Beltre a player worth $12m+ per year?

Absolutely not. He had one huge year. I don't get the comparison however, Baez has had more than one solid season as a reliever/closer.

 

[VolinArizona]

That shows how useless a stat like that is, especially for relievers. The team has to come from behind or score more runs more often than not for a reliever to get the win. I'd take a proven commodity over several years than I would over some of those Braves' relievers that split time between Atlanta, Richmond, and Mississippi.

I really mean no offense, but you didn't understand the statistic. The stat does not incorporate pitchers' win and loss records. Nor does a VORP of 10 say a pitcher won 1 game. It just means a Braves team that went 90-72 with Baez this year would be 91-71 with Ray this year. It doesn't mean Ray would be 3-5 or 4-5 or anything like that. It's widely considered the best overall stat to compare players, period. It's funny you call it useless without reseraching or even caring.

The FACT is that there are 4 relievers the Braves have who are performing better than Baez in 2006. Yes, Baez has been solid before 2006, but IN THIS SEASON, as of right now, he's the Braves' 5th best reliever.

 

[tidwell]

You're right, I'd never even heard of that stat until you came in here calling a proven reliever the 5th best pitcher in a bullpen that has been nothing short of wildly inconsistent this season.

 

[GAVol]

Baez has two things that nobody else in the bullpen other than Wickman has; a power arm and proven closer ability.

...and I know more about WHIP, VORP and OPS than I care to admit.

 

[VolinArizona]

You're right, I'd never even heard of that stat until you came in here calling a proven reliever the 5th best pitcher in a bullpen that has been nothing short of wildly inconsistent this season.

Listen man, I haven't had any attitude in this discussion. I've given you my thoughts in a very civil manner, keeping to facts. It's true, you didn't understand the stat, and that's okay. I didn't either when I first heard of it. You don't need to act rudely when unprovoked. It's unbecoming.

The fact of the matter is that the best baseball minds (Bill James, BP guys) happen to think VORP is one of, if not the best, statistic to measure value to a team. Baez, in the past, has had better seasons. However, this season he has been outperformed by 4 Atlanta relievers.

Here are the stats you probably care about:

Ken Ray: 3.31 ERA
Chad Paronto: 3.03 ERA
Oscar Villarreal: 4.22 ERA
Tyler Yates: 2.83 ERA
Danny Baez: 4.35 ERA

So, even there, you can see that Baez is the 5th best reliever in terms of ERA in 2006. Will Baez outperform those 4 next season? He very well could. Does he help the Braves in the pen? Absolutely. Is he their best reliever in 2006? Not really close.

And the Betemit trade hurt the Braves a little in terms of overall value, but it helps them in need areas.

 

[VolinArizona]

Baez has two things that nobody else in the bullpen other than Wickman has; a power arm and proven closer ability.

...and I know more about WHIP, VORP and OPS than I care to admit.

If you know about VORP, WARP, eQa, WS, etc, then you would know that closers and the "saves" stat are both extremely overrated.

 

[tidwell]

Wasn't getting rude or anything, just saying I'd take Baez this year or any other year over any of the current cast of Braves' relievers.

I am intrigued by this VORP stat however, since I've never heard of it obviously. What players have the highest VORP's in baseball? I'm guessing it's guys with the best stats like a Hafner, Pujols, Ortiz, etc. Illuminate me.

 

[tidwell]

If you know about VORP, WARP, eQa, WS, etc, then you would know that closers and the "saves" stat are both extremely overrated.

Brad Lidge and the Houston Astros may disagree.

 

[VolinArizona]

Wasn't getting rude or anything, just saying I'd take Baez this year or any other year over any of the current cast of Braves' relievers.

I am intrigued by this VORP stat however, since I've never heard of it obviously. What players have the highest VORP's in baseball? I'm guessing it's guys with the best stats like a Hafner, Pujols, Ortiz, etc. Illuminate me.

Top 10 hitters:

1. Pujols
2. Hafner
3. Jeter (he's very rarely this high; his defense is also terrible)
4. Wells
5. Utley
6. Mauer
7. Sizemore
8. Beltran
9. M. Ramirez
10. Tejada

Top 10 pitchers:

1. Webb
2. Liriano
3. Halladay
4. Santana
5. Verlander
6. C. Zambrano
7. Carpenter
8. Arroyo
9. Oswalt
10. Schmidt

The one problem VORP has is that it doesn't incorporate defense, so Jeter's value would drop, and someone like Izturis goes up (but nowhere near enough to get close to Jeter).

baseballprospectus.com has some of the stats available for free, but the rest is subscription, which I don't have.

 

[VolinArizona]

Brad Lidge and the Houston Astros may disagree.

Closers and saves are overrated. Billy Koch is the best example of a smart GM bloating a closer's save numbers then getting a GREAT trade when another GM values saves too much. There is research out there (my book is at home, so I can show you tonight) that shows that using your best reliever in save situations shows very very little difference than putting your 3rd or 4th best in save situations.

 

[tidwell]

I'd say I'm a little more than surprised that Ortiz isn't in the top 10 hitters, especially considering it doesn't count defensive contributions.

Jeter won a gold glove last year if I'm not mistaken.

What's the formula for calculating a player's VORP?

 

[VolinArizona]

I'd say I'm a little more than surprised that Ortiz isn't in the top 10 hitters, especially considering it doesn't count defensive contributions.

Jeter won a gold glove last year if I'm not mistaken.

What's the formula for calculating a player's VORP?

As much as I hate to say this, gold gloves look only at errors, which are misleading, too. He did have his best fielding year in 2005 with a FRAA with 13, which is 13 fielding runs above average. So he basically saved 13 runs in the field. However, here are the prior years to 2005:

2004: -3
2003: -13
2002: -15
2001: -18
2000: -18
1999: -17
1998: -11
1997: -15
1996: -12

Going to dinner, more soon

 

[Freak]

Listen man, I haven't had any attitude in this discussion. I've given you my thoughts in a very civil manner, keeping to facts. It's true, you didn't understand the stat, and that's okay. I didn't either when I first heard of it. You don't need to act rudely when unprovoked. It's unbecoming.

Relax, I don't think he had any attitude at all.

 

[TennFan]

Well, now after the Mets sweep of the Braves, what are the chances the Braves still have to mathmetically stay alive in the wild card? Guess they need to take the series from the Pirates and at least 2 of 3 from the Reds. I think the Braves need to win over 40 games the rest of the season to make the wild card. Is that a good forecast? I know they've had a tough season to now-too many people on the DL, not the best starting pitching. Hudson has sucked this season. If we count the Braves out after mid August, what besides starting pitching or the bullpen do the Braves need and who do the put up for bait? Should they get rid of John Smoltz? I think not-keep him for at least one year with an option. Did the Braves do the right thing in getting rid of Greg and Tommy at the right time? Maybe?
I think the Braves had two of the best outfielders in the league in Andruw Jones and Jeff Franceour. Both had "great arms."

 

[OrangeSquare]

For what it's worth, the Braves and Cardinals traded with each other today.

The Atlanta Braves dealt Jorge Sosa to the St. Louis Cardinals for a minor leaguer at the trade deadline Monday, one day after the disappointing pitcher was designated for assignment.

 

[OrangeSquare]

Well, now after the Mets sweep of the Braves, what are the chances the Braves still have to mathmetically stay alive in the wild card? Guess they need to take the series from the Pirates and at least 2 of 3 from the Reds. I think the Braves need to win over 40 games the rest of the season to make the wild card. Is that a good forecast? I know they've had a tough season to now-too many people on the DL, not the best starting pitching. Hudson has sucked this season. If we count the Braves out after mid August, what besides starting pitching or the bullpen do the Braves need and who do the put up for bait? Should they get rid of John Smoltz? I think not-keep him for at least one year with an option. Did the Braves do the right thing in getting rid of Greg and Tommy at the right time? Maybe?
I think the Braves had two of the best outfielders in the league in Andruw Jones and Jeff Franceour. Both had "great arms."

Braves are only 6.5 back in the wildcard, and only 2 games out of like third place in the wildcard.

The trade deadline was today, so they can't trade anyone until late this year, in November/December.

Letting Tom and Greg go was something I hated, but it had to be done.

Not sure why you are discussing Jones and Franceour in the past tense, but I think the Braves have one of if not THE the best group of outfielders in the National League.

 

[GAVol]

The trade deadline was today, so they can't trade anyone until late this year, in November/December.

Trades can still be made until September 1, the players involved just have to clear waivers first, so it's a little bit more difficult to get a deal done since teams lower in the standings can make a waiver claim and foul things up.