Even if the economy were doing better, it is disingenuous to state that - for a fact - any improvement is a result of the stimulus.
Stimulus or no stimulus, plenty of variables are involved. However, I can't understand how people say that doing nothing would somehow improve the economy? Tax cuts/credits, and spending/works are vital during economic downtimes.
In addition to the fact that economies have been naturally recovering long before the stimuli suggested by John Maynard Keynes, a lot of other factors have changed since 2007-2008, independent of the stimulus.
I agree, there is other factors involved. The ideas suggested by JMK were revolutionary, and in reality for those who say WWII got the US out of the damn, WWII was a extremely large public works project. It's also further proof of the fed gov't not doing enough during the New Deal.
For instance, we've gone from oil at $145 a barrel to around $28; we've had the federal reserve do everything in its power to boost the money supply; TARP legislation; the list goes on and on. [
The federal reserve has done it's job for the most part, in conjunction with JMK's theories. I would raise inflationary targeting.
No one knows the effect the stimulus has had on the economy because there are simply too many variables in the equation. I'm surprised that Bam resorts to saying it should have been bigger without recognizing that it might not have "needed" to be anything larger and might have in fact been smaller had it been more focused and not spent on so many ridiculous pork projects.
The stimulus was desperately needed, obviously in politics pork will be involved. The stimulus had to provide demand, and with the risk of a deflationary trap it was urgently needed. Why I'm saying the 1.4 trillion-1.5 trillion range:
Overkill is better
More aid to state govt's
More infrastructure spending
More public works
Possibly even more short-time tax cuts/credits, health aid.
EDIT: to point out that I'm not necessarily disagreeing with the fact that a stimulus is beneficial in a recession, I'm pointing out (1) that they are not always necessary; and (2) we can't simply attribute an increase in economic activity to the stimulus when there were a lot of other factors working here.
The stimulus was absolutely needed. The CBO was originally estimating 2.9 trillion shortfall over three years.