Those calling for an upset in Orgeon

#227
#227
albedo33 said:
Regardless of what the scoreboard says when it's over, I just want to see some things we haven't seen in a while:
1. UT defenders able to make a one-on-one open field tackle.
2. An OL that can actually create holes for the RB.
3. A UT team playing as well in the 3rd quarter as it did in the first.
4. Eleven players on the field, no more and no less, on every play of the game.
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Boca Vol said:
That's just crazy talk, right there. :crazy:
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Derek Dooley does not approve of this message :eek:lol:
 
#229
#229
Vols4us said:
Both run up tempo offenses. Both run plain vanilla 4-3 defenses using a lot of zone to contain the big plays. Jones has successfully been a head coach at two different ascending programs. Helfrich was promoted up from OC to head coach of the Ducks. Oregon runs the same system it has for a number of years. For UT it is a new system, but a type of system that was run partially at UT previously with Chaney as well as many high schools around the country (less sophisticated versions).

Finally, per Rivals the talent on both rosters is exactly even. From 2010-2013 UT ranked #'s 9, 13, 17, 21. Oregon ranked #'s 13, 9, 16, 22. Could not be more alike in talent with any other team in the country if you believe their rankings. The wild card is redshirt seniors. UT ranked #10 in 2009, while Oregon ranked #32. Of these RS seniors there are 4 that will start or otherwise play a lot of snaps in Moore, Walls, Couch and Hood along with a couple guys that could help in Oliver and King. On offense two guys will contribute a lot in Bullard and LS Carr. Oregon shows no RS seniors and only 3 RS juniors on their roster. So it appears the roster experience edge goes to UT.

Playing at home is big for Oregon. But there is nothing to suggest UT will not be able to hold their own. Definitely not going to predict a win at this point since there are too many unknowns, but they sure could make it interesting.
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This is exactly the same evaluation that I have made in other posts. People don't understand that talent is the predictor of almost 70% of the games, regardless of location or who is coaching. The other 30 or so % can be explained by coaching. Kelly was like Petrino in that he always got more out of his roster than talent would explain. That isn't a system that can just be created and ran by anyone, or everyone would do it. Jones is a similar coach as he over performs by an average of 3 games a year above his talent.

Oregon is more likely to experience a post Petrino Arkansas style let down than people think. The fact is that Arkansas last year without Petrino, performed exactly as their latent talent would predict. That shows you how important coaching is in those unique sorts of systems.

So the eyeball test tells many people that Oregon is more talented than they are while UT is less talented than they are. The reality is neither, they are similarly talented teams who had coaches that greatly affected the outcome of several seasons.

These two teams are polar opposite exceptions to the general rule that talent is the predictor of a win and not coaching.

Talent predicts that UT goes 7-4 this year, with the toss-up being Oregon. The predicted losses are against Bama, Florida, Auburn and Georgia. That is if Butch only performs to his talent level as he did his first year at Cincy, when they only won 4 games. Yes, Auburn is a team with incredible recruiting history and a far more talented roster than their record last year would indicate. With solid coaching, that will be a tough game to win.
 
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#232
#232
THINK boys and girls. What coach in ALL THE WORLD knows Oregon's game more than Chip Kelley? Here's another one... What coach in all of college football has something to prove more than all the others? (careful, that's a trick question). Now here's a third one. What team is ;bigger, younger, faster, has more stamina? I'll give you a clue on that last one...it ain't Oregon.
 
#233
#233
IluvdoubleD's said:
THINK boys and girls. What coach in ALL THE WORLD knows Oregon's game more than Chip Kelley? Here's another one... What coach in all of college football has something to prove more than all the others? (careful, that's a trick question). Now here's a third one. What team is ;bigger, younger, faster, has more stamina? I'll give you a clue on that last one...it ain't Oregon.
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you think UT is faster than oregon?
 
#235
#235
IluvdoubleD's said:
THINK boys and girls. What coach in ALL THE WORLD knows Oregon's game more than Chip Kelley? Here's another one... What coach in all of college football has something to prove more than all the others? (careful, that's a trick question). Now here's a third one. What team is ;bigger, younger, faster, has more stamina? I'll give you a clue on that last one...it ain't Oregon.
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Jesus, you can't possibly believe this. There's homerism and then there's utter foolishness. I'll give you a clue, you fall in the latter category.
 
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#236
#236
VolFan4Life87 said:
Obviously there's a chance. There's people on this board talking like we have a better chance of beating them than we do South Carolina or UGA, teams actually almost beat last year. Oregon can and perhaps will score 50+ on a decent UT defense, let alone last year's..
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I'm not convinced Oregon would beat the top teams in the SEC on a consistent basis. Oregon struggles against teams who are good in the trenches. LSU beat their brains out and Auburn held them far below their season averages. Stanford smashes on them regularly as well. Just because ESPN and our younger bandwagon generation love Oregon, I've seen nothing that makes me think they could walk thru UT's schedule. Oregon would get a rude awakening in this league.

They've also lost Barner. Along with Dion Jordan and Kyle Long, both were first round picks. Oh yeah, how could I forget? They lost one of the 3-5 best coaches in the country....but I'm sure that won't have an impact, now will it? SMDH...

I'm not sure what's gonna happen when we go to Oregon. But I know that saying we have zero chance is a boatload of bullsh*t! We have the best o-line in the entire nation. I'll be really disappointed if CBJ tries to uptempo Oregon and beat them at their own game. We have the o-line to slow it down...smash them, keep their offense off the field. I'm rather optimistic about this game. But that's just me.
 
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#237
#237
TreeGreen said:
You are a braver person than I. We would need a perfect QB performance or a bruising defense to win. The odds are terrible.
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40 carries by our RBs and forcing 3 turnovers IMO=UT win. QB just can't make mistakes. OL can win this ball game for us. Defense just has to keep things in front of them. Watch how Stanford played & beat Oregon last year. Stanford plays an SEC style and it can beat the ducks. Tennessee can go into Autzen and win.

:loco:
 
#239
#239
RichRollin said:
I'm not convinced Oregon would beat the top teams in the SEC on a consistent basis. Oregon struggles against teams who are good in the trenches. LSU beat their brains out and Auburn held them far below their season averages. Stanford smashes on them regularly as well. Just because ESPN and our younger bandwagon generation love Oregon, I've seen nothing that makes me think they could walk thru UT's schedule. Oregon would get a rude awakening in this league.

They've also lost Barner. Along with Dion Jordan and Kyle Long, both were first round picks. Oh yeah, how could I forget? They lost one of the 3-5 best coaches in the country....but I'm sure that won't have an impact, now will it? SMDH...

I'm not sure what's gonna happen when we go to Oregon. But I know that saying we have zero chance is a boatload of bullsh*t! We have the best o-line in the entire nation. I'll be really disappointed if CBJ tries to uptempo Oregon and beat them at their own game. We have the o-line to slow it down...smash them, keep their offense off the field. I'm rather optimistic about this game. But that's just me.
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I have no problem if CBJ wants to go up tempo at OR. As long as a lot of the up tempo plays are handing/pitching the ball to a RB, if the UT OL is smashing people, the results will be the same. Now if we could get a 10-14 point lead, then I would hope he would slow it down and run clock while STILL handing the ball off. Worley just needs to be 18 of 30 or so passing and not turn the ball over. Keep the OR defense honest and I think UT can get the win.
 
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#240
#240
LebanonVolunteer said:
I have no problem if CBJ wants to go up tempo at OR. As long as a lot of the up tempo plays are handing/pitching the ball to a RB, if the UT OL is smashing people, the results will be the same. Now if we could get a 10-14 point lead, then I would hope he would slow it down and run clock while STILL handing the ball off. Worley just needs to be 18 of 30 or so passing and not turn the ball over. Keep the OR defense honest and I think UT can get the win.
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Pound the rock fo sho! The only reason I say slow it down is because they score so quick. If a slower tempo gives you 5-6 minutes extra on the time of possession at the end of the day that's a couple what would be scoring drives in some instances for them. But we would need to execute regardless what the tempo is. And yes...get off the bus running the football. I'm not sure they have an answer for our o-line. Neal's speed with Hill's bruising style...hell yeah, run it 40 times!
 
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#242
#242
Upset? 3rd gm of the season, highly unlikely. I'd better like our chances if it were switched w/ Mizzou or Auburn.
 
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#243
#243
RichRollin said:
I'm not convinced Oregon would beat the top teams in the SEC on a consistent basis. Oregon struggles against teams who are good in the trenches. LSU beat their brains out and Auburn held them far below their season averages. Stanford smashes on them regularly as well. Just because ESPN and our younger bandwagon generation love Oregon, I've seen nothing that makes me think they could walk thru UT's schedule. Oregon would get a rude awakening in this league.

They've also lost Barner. Along with Dion Jordan and Kyle Long, both were first round picks. Oh yeah, how could I forget? They lost one of the 3-5 best coaches in the country....but I'm sure that won't have an impact, now will it? SMDH...

I'm not sure what's gonna happen when we go to Oregon. But I know that saying we have zero chance is a boatload of bullsh*t! We have the best o-line in the entire nation. I'll be really disappointed if CBJ tries to uptempo Oregon and beat them at their own game. We have the o-line to slow it down...smash them, keep their offense off the field. I'm rather optimistic about this game. But that's just me.
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Yeah Rich!...Tell em!...People on here acting like this is going to be a remake of Bloodsport...our boys are bigger and after this summer...MEANER!!!
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#244
#244
1972 Grad said:
Or the 1979 Rutgers game . If he wants to go back 27 seasons ago, instead of the last 1/4 century , I'll add the North Texas State loss.
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I hate to break this to you but 1988 was 25 years ago. Doesn't seem possible, does it? Those losses you're referring to are going on 35-40 years. :cray:<---- to getting old.
 
#247
#247
butchna said:
Yeah Rich!...Tell em!...People on here acting like this is going to be a remake of Bloodsport...our boys are bigger and after this summer...MEANER!!!
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I don't know, they might smash us, but I don't see it. I've seen much crazier things happen than for us to beat them.

People have it in their minds that this hot shot offensive coordinator is gonna keep things going and not skip a beat for Oregon. As of losing the best coach in their program's history isn't a big deal. CBJ led his Cinci teams to both Knoxville and Norman Oklahoma....damn near upset Oklahoma a couple years ago. I think he's gonna be well prepared for the vastly over rated Outzen Stadium, and he'll have our boys ready as well.

Again, this is my opinion. No source, links, I'm no insider, etc...lol
 
#248
#248
I'm not calling an upset but the general sentiment regards us as a lower division program and intimates that we may get hurt..(Hey Tony Basillio)...if they beat us...even handily...they're going to need the tubs as much as us..imo
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#249
#249
College football is one of the few sports professional gamblers and bookies used to deride as far too unpredictable to bet on. The growth of gambling and time has changed things a bit, but it still retains a huge element of unpredictability and many large bettors still shy away from it.

Take our 98 team. They never should've won a championship according to most wisdom and even many cold assessments of talent. Notre Dame should've never went undefeated and made it to the BCS this past year. A&M wasn't nearly as talented as Bama. And it goes on and on.
 
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