The details aren’t provided but his model likes the development of Bailey, Santi, and JJJ for next year. I think the concept is based on a similar player profile like KenPom does. Finds historically similar players based on height/weight, statistical profile and class. Then sees how those players progress into the next season and then uses that to forecast their production.
Statistically and size wise, Santi has some pretty favorable player comps. His first two years he’s tracked similarly to Ryan Arcidiacono. Which is interesting since he began his career playing point but then played more 2 in his last 2 years and helped win a title in that role.
Bailey comps with Dayton’s Jordan Sibert and Texas’ Andrew Jones. Both were high usage players their senior season and interestingly played more at the 3.
JJJ had some pretty favorable comps last year, Levi Randolph, Aaron Nesmith, Davon Reed. This year though he comps w lesser known but still good players for their teams. Seton Hall’s Jared Rhoden, Charleston’s Willis Hall, and Miami’s Anthony Lawrence, and Furman’s Clay Mounce. Most of the minutes between them are in the 4 spot which makes some sense based on JJJ’s style of play this year. If we get more help in the front court and JJJ can get his 3pt shot going then hopefully that changes.
His projection for Fulk is the exact same for this year. None of his comps played 6 years so it doesn’t know what to do so just leaving his numbers the same. Which I believe if Fulk comes back I’d expect him to be more like the Fulk from ‘20.