Those states are the worst because that’s where it spread first, when information was scarce (because we weren’t prepared) And because they’re geographically predisposed to rapid spread.
The death rate has declined as medical providers have adapted and learned effective treatments, so states hit earliest should naturally have worse mortality measures.
Also, the states that got hit early were geographically predisposed to being hit hard. Try comparing states and massive metro areas with the busiest international airports, seaports, and highest population density and you start to see correlations with deaths per million beyond “red” and “blue.” (Louisiana, NYC, CHI, NJ, MASS, LA, Seattle, etc. all have strong correlations when you look at those lists).
Then, look at the infection and death curves over time and you see that, by in large, those blue states got hit very early before it tapered off. Recent death trends (which should be suppressed due to having the benefit of better public information and treatment) tend towards red states with 3 of 4 states with triple digit Covid fatalities over the past 7 days being majority republican.
As to the second question: Trump virus was out of control before the protests and riots. Had the response been going well, followed by a spike in deaths and cases that was geographically centered around those protests, then maybe. But that doesn’t appear to be the whole story, because states like Mississippi, where there was very little protesting and almost no rioting, have also had very serious outbreaks.
