Turkey: Our NATO Ally

[Grand Vol]

I can't believe junior officers were behind this either, however, the whole thing is fishy..

I really feel that Erdogan sees himself and Turkey as the "key" between US/Russia relations...therefore, he has power that others don't..

He's a lunatic and both sides know this. Neither trust him and neither think he's the ideal statesman/leader...however, when you play hardball, guys like Erdogan are beneficial/unbeneficial depending on the side..

Believe it or not, I think Putin isn't as hardcore as some of you would like to believe. He keeps trying to work with "our partners"(America) in Syria, regardless the pressure that we have put upon him...

Erdogan has power here, but in the end, hes got to choose a side. He wont survive long standing alone...

It's all about the location. If Erdogan was leader of a country in Central Asia or the middle of Africa, he would be no more than just another tin pot dictator we wouldn't even pay any mind to. However, being that Turkey controls some decent real estate, we are forced to deal with him. Same goes with Putin, the EU and the rest of the world for the most part. I know Azerbaijan has a couple of pipelines running into the ports in Turkey for oil and NG exports (I might assume Russia does to, don't know) as well as controlling the Bosphorus Strait which allows Russia access to the only warm water ports they have. And again, it's a convenient jumping off point into the Middle East for the U.S.

Sadly, he's just one of those people we must deal with. But his tactics in the aftermath of the failed coup are pretty scary and is fundamentally transforming Turkey from a moderate democracy into what the rest of the Middle East has for nations. But I could almost guarantee you the EU won't look favorable upon entry by Turkey if the trend continues.

 

[Grand Vol]

This is your second time in the last few comments to mention how "weak" Obama is.

Tell me, how would a "strong" president handle Turkey?

Considering the first was an agreement with another poster, I'm not sure how you single me out for this all too common reaction concerning Obama's strengths (or lack thereof). However, yes, the second time it was repeated as it is true.

How would a strong leader deal with Turkey? Easy enough. Revoke the NATO nuclear sharing agreement with them in particular and pull the bombs out of Turkey. And dare them to object otherwise. It's U.S. property, with U.S. maintenance and support with the U.S. paying the bill on the upgrades to the storage facilities. And if Erdogan didn't like it? Eat a fat one because we just don't care. WTF are you going to do about it? Threaten our troops and threaten to seize the weapons that are rightfully ours and in direct violation of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty you signed? I don't think so, Scooter.

Open another base in a nearby friendly country for operations against ISIS to continue and remove all U.S. forces from Turkey. Support the calls for a independent Kurdistan and recognize their independence if they gained it. Remind them civilized nations don't go after judges, politicians and military members because they have a difference of opinion in political matters.

Remove their position of perceived power and remind them they aren't the only ones with valuable real estate in that part of the world. If they fall into the sphere of Russia's influence, so be it. That's their loss.

 

[red butler]

Considering the first was an agreement with another poster, I'm not sure how you single me out for this all too common reaction concerning Obama's strengths (or lack thereof). However, yes, the second time it was repeated as it is true.

How would a strong leader deal with Turkey? Easy enough. Revoke the NATO nuclear sharing agreement with them in particular and pull the bombs out of Turkey. And dare them to object otherwise. It's U.S. property, with U.S. maintenance and support with the U.S. paying the bill on the upgrades to the storage facilities. And if Erdogan didn't like it? Eat a fat one because we just don't care. WTF are you going to do about it? Threaten our troops and threaten to seize the weapons that are rightfully ours and in direct violation of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty you signed? I don't think so, Scooter.

Open another base in a nearby friendly country for operations against ISIS to continue and remove all U.S. forces from Turkey. Support the calls for a independent Kurdistan and recognize their independence if they gained it. Remind them civilized nations don't go after judges, politicians and military members because they have a difference of opinion in political matters.

Remove their position of perceived power and remind them they aren't the only ones with valuable real estate in that part of the world. If they fall into the sphere of Russia's influence, so be it. That's their loss.

The Kurdistan angle is a really good one. There's already a huge air base in Kirkuk. Of course it's probably too close to the border to risk nukes. There's still plenty of good real estate in Kurdistan though. The Kurds are good people too, we'd finally have an ally in the region I'd trust.

 

[volprof]

Considering the first was an agreement with another poster, I'm not sure how you single me out for this all too common reaction concerning Obama's strengths (or lack thereof). However, yes, the second time it was repeated as it is true.

How would a strong leader deal with Turkey? Easy enough. Revoke the NATO nuclear sharing agreement with them in particular and pull the bombs out of Turkey. And dare them to object otherwise. It's U.S. property, with U.S. maintenance and support with the U.S. paying the bill on the upgrades to the storage facilities. And if Erdogan didn't like it? Eat a fat one because we just don't care. WTF are you going to do about it? Threaten our troops and threaten to seize the weapons that are rightfully ours and in direct violation of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty you signed? I don't think so, Scooter.

Open another base in a nearby friendly country for operations against ISIS to continue and remove all U.S. forces from Turkey. Support the calls for a independent Kurdistan and recognize their independence if they gained it. Remind them civilized nations don't go after judges, politicians and military members because they have a difference of opinion in political matters.

Remove their position of perceived power and remind them they aren't the only ones with valuable real estate in that part of the world. If they fall into the sphere of Russia's influence, so be it. That's their loss.

Excellent post. I couldn't agree more. I would certainly pursue the diplomatic route to all other possibilities were exhausted, and I think you'd agree with that, but if he persists and continues to threaten to move in on the base, I'd want our president to do exactly what you said. And, off the record, I would remind him that we could reduce all of his nation's military installations to complete rubble in 30 minutes with both tactical and strategic nuke strikes. (I only add this part because of the threat he would take our own nuclear weapons; nuke strikes aren't something I just advocate in war, but this is an exceptional situation.)

Perhaps the biggest bargaining chip to avoid a war, if it looks like he is going to go in is to let it be known that Kurdistan as a recognized nation becomes effective immediately in the event of that move. And we still have the international clout to push the majority of the rest of the world community to acknowledge our checkmate.

 

[volprof]

interesting development, and theoretical. what do you guys feel about a potential "swap" of allies. Russia gets Turkey, which ousts Iran who we firm things up with.

obviously it will take a ton of work for us to even have normal relations with Iran but just thinking/wondering if they start to feel like a jilted lover.

That's a good question, and a hard call. Both Turkey and Iran, or Ottoman and Persian, if you like, historically work. They're the only countries/societies in the Middle East that do, a result of near ethnic homogeneity and defensible borders. Both are strong partners in that part of the world for anyone.

If I had to choose, it would be Iran though. Iran has access to the Indian Ocean and to the major energy fields of both the Middle East and Central Asia. Even if we were to lose the Bosphorus, we could still choke the Russians off at Gibraltar and the Suez, although they'd admittedly be able to run wild in the Mediterranean. Plus, over time, I think Iran has a lot more potential as an economic and military power than Turkey.

Unfortunately, such an alliance will not develop anytime soon, if ever. Best case scenario, it would take at least 2-3 more decades, time enough for all the loudmouth rednecks on both sides, ours and theirs - Israel butt-kissers and Ayatalloh crotch-sniffers - to die off.

 

[LouderVol]

That's a good question, and a hard call. Both Turkey and Iran, or Ottoman and Persian, if you like, historically work. They're the only countries/societies in the Middle East that do, a result of near ethnic homogeneity and defensible borders. Both are strong partners in that part of the world for anyone.

If I had to choose, it would be Iran though. Iran has access to the Indian Ocean and to the major energy fields of both the Middle East and Central Asia. Even if we were to lose the Bosphorus, we could still choke the Russians off at Gibraltar and the Suez, although they'd admittedly be able to run wild in the Mediterranean. Plus, over time, I think Iran has a lot more potential as an economic and military power than Turkey.

Unfortunately, such an alliance will not develop anytime soon, if ever. Best case scenario, it would take at least 2-3 more decades, time enough for all the loudmouth rednecks on both sides, ours and theirs - Israel butt-kissers and Ayatalloh crotch-sniffers - to die off.

we can replace the bosphorous choke point with an Aegean one. not as effective but a carrier battle group in that area pretty much grounds whatever we want.

 

[volprof]

we can replace the bosphorous choke point with an Aegean one. not as effective but a carrier battle group in that area pretty much grounds whatever we want.

That is well put, as the Italian "boot" and the Sicilian "football," coupled with the Tunisian "punt returner," could indeed serve as such a choke point.

Heck, it's possible that even the Greek Isles (which will never be on Turkey's side of any alliance, other than one they're included in, such as NATO) could serve as a choke point, only leaving us a gap between them and the North African coast to cordon. That would be risky though, as it would leave us exposed to the Ottomans. The Aegean, as you said, is probably the wiser of the two, although it would still allow the Black Sea Fleet and the Turkish naval joke to still run a bit in the Mediterranean.

But, again, this is why I think Iran would be a far better long-term strategic partner. As far as Israel is concerned, I really couldn't give a damn. I hope they make it, and I support their democracy, something so rare in that part of the world, but they really mean nothing more to me than an intelligence partner. They're not going to help us win a major war, should the crap ever fly. A Turkey or an Iran, however, would, and I'll take Iran out of those two.

 

[Grand Vol]

That is well put, as the Italian "boot" and the Sicilian "football," coupled with the Tunisian "punt returner," could indeed serve as such a choke point.

Heck, it's possible that even the Greek Isles (which will never be on Turkey's side of any alliance, other than one they're included in, such as NATO) could serve as a choke point, only leaving us a gap between them and the North African coast to cordon. That would be risky though, as it would leave us exposed to the Ottomans. The Aegean, as you said, is probably the wiser of the two, although it would still allow the Black Sea Fleet and the Turkish naval joke to still run a bit in the Mediterranean.

But, again, this is why I think Iran would be a far better long-term strategic partner. As far as Israel is concerned, I really couldn't give a damn. I hope they make it, and I support their democracy, something so rare in that part of the world, but they really mean nothing more to me than an intelligence partner. They're not going to help us win a major war, should the crap ever fly. A Turkey or an Iran, however, would, and I'll take Iran out of those two.

I think you're crazy about Iran.

 

[Grand Vol]

we can replace the bosphorous choke point with an Aegean one. not as effective but a carrier battle group in that area pretty much grounds whatever we want.

Or dig a 21st Century Suez or Panama Canal across Greece and Bulgaria

That would at least give those two nations something for the refugees to do.

 

[volprof]

I think you're crazy about Iran.

Crazy about them, or crazy for thinking they're the ones we ought to be allies with?

I should say that if Turkey were a persistent democracy, then I'd go with them, but they're always going to be up and down. They're too torn between the West and Islam, unfortunately. And there is no doubt in my mind that, if you can kill the high clerics, you can have something with Iran. I'm under the impression that most Iranians really don't mind the US; it's just that their "opinion-makers" currently dictate terms. Get rid of them, and we can make it work.

 

[Tin Man]

What do you do with a problem like Turkey?

[youtube]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=s-VRyQprlu8[/youtube]

Marry Turkey off to the EU?

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Considering the first was an agreement with another poster, I'm not sure how you single me out for this all too common reaction concerning Obama's strengths (or lack thereof). However, yes, the second time it was repeated as it is true.

How would a strong leader deal with Turkey? Easy enough. Revoke the NATO nuclear sharing agreement with them in particular and pull the bombs out of Turkey. And dare them to object otherwise. It's U.S. property, with U.S. maintenance and support with the U.S. paying the bill on the upgrades to the storage facilities. And if Erdogan didn't like it? Eat a fat one because we just don't care. WTF are you going to do about it? Threaten our troops and threaten to seize the weapons that are rightfully ours and in direct violation of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty you signed? I don't think so, Scooter.

Open another base in a nearby friendly country for operations against ISIS to continue and remove all U.S. forces from Turkey. Support the calls for a independent Kurdistan and recognize their independence if they gained it. Remind them civilized nations don't go after judges, politicians and military members because they have a difference of opinion in political matters.

Remove their position of perceived power and remind them they aren't the only ones with valuable real estate in that part of the world. If they fall into the sphere of Russia's influence, so be it. That's their loss.

What you detailed is simply a change in policy, not necessarily a show of strength. I doubt very seriously if Obama isn't just as capable as anyone else of doing what you stated. And I'm sure he wouldn't get much static from congress or the general public. So it wouldn't be a courageous or bold move.

 

[Grand Vol]

What you detailed is simply a change in policy, not necessarily a show of strength. I doubt very seriously if Obama isn't just as capable as anyone else of doing what you stated. And I'm sure he wouldn't get much static from congress or the general public. So it wouldn't be a courageous or bold move.

I think you far overestimate the sack Obama has.

And a policy change is a show of strength.

 

[LouderVol]

The Aegean, as you said, is probably the wiser of the two, although it would still allow the Black Sea Fleet and the Turkish naval joke to still run a bit in the Mediterranean.

not really. as long as we hold a line it isn't worth while for Russia to try and push out against our navy head to head holding the Aegean. It becomes the battleship paradox. is it worth risking losing what you have to attack the other guy? I know Russia's navy aint worth much in a stand up naval fight, I doubt Turkey's is in any better shape. even if they did defeat and sink a battle group we could roll another into the area. I think we have 6. put one of ours in there with allies to back up, France and Italy may be the only ones. and suddenly its a game of attrition Russia doesn't want to play. and even with them taking back the Crimean dock yards they don't have the capability to produce more ships.

so again if we hold the line, Russia would be smart to do the same. they risk exposing their flank to us in the Black Sea and we could easily take back their docks at that point.

 

[Tin Man]

As for Turkey, the question to be answered is its political future - Will it devolve into a dictatorial Presidency? Or, will elections throw off Erdogan and centralized power, returning to parliamentary governance?

If the former prevails, then Turkey's allies will rethink their relationships, and alternatives for basing NATO/US forces in the region will be undertaken. [Note: There is no optimal alternative for access to present areas of conflict.] If the latter prevails, then Turkey's allies will be well served by their restraint during times of domestic upheaval.

Simply, it isn't as clear or quick as some on this thread frame it.

 

[volprof]

As for Turkey, the question to be answered is its political future - Will it devolve into a dictatorial Presidency? Or, will elections throw off Erdogan and centralized power, returning to parliamentary governance?

If the former prevails, then Turkey's allies will rethink their relationships, and alternatives for basing NATO/US forces in the region will be undertaken. [Note: There is no optimal alternative for access to present areas of conflict.] If the latter prevails, then Turkey's allies will be well served by their restraint during times of domestic upheaval.

Simply, it isn't as clear or quick as some on this thread frame it.

The last election was rigged.

And what "isn't as clear or quick as some on this thread frame it"? What is "it"?

New input is always welcomed here, so thanks for stopping by. I sincerely hope you're not another Kremlin butt-sniffer, as some on here are, but it doesn't sound like you're headed that route and, even if you are, it is certainly your right to sniff Kremlin butt should you so choose. This is America, after all.

 

[Grand Vol]

Crazy about them, or crazy for thinking they're the ones we ought to be allies with?

Yes lol

Crazy as to think that 40 years of animosity would be quickly wiped out by being allied with them.

We have friends of convenience in that part of the world rather than true allies. Save Israel (though I know your feelings on the matter) and maybe Kuwait.

I should say that if Turkey were a persistent democracy, then I'd go with them, but they're always going to be up and down. They're too torn between the West and Islam, unfortunately. And there is no doubt in my mind that, if you can kill the high clerics, you can have something with Iran. I'm under the impression that most Iranians really don't mind the US; it's just that their "opinion-makers" currently dictate terms. Get rid of them, and we can make it work.

Most Iranians probably could give a darn either way, you are correct. However, see answer above about animosity.

 

[Tin Man]

The last election was rigged.

If so, do you assert that free & fair elections are no longer possible in Turkey? Expound.

And what "isn't as clear or quick as some on this thread frame it"? What is "it"?

The question of Turkey's future and which other countries should take what action when.

New input is always welcomed here, so thanks for stopping by. I sincerely hope you're not another Kremlin butt-sniffer, as some on here are, but it doesn't sound like you're headed that route and, even if you are, it is certainly your right to sniff Kremlin butt should you so choose. This is America, after all.

Actually, I have a sounder and more balanced perspective than that you which reveal through your posts. I'm not a "Kremlin butt-sniffer." You're not the Lord of the Flies, and I don't need your acquiescence to post anywhere on VN. As you say, "This is America."

I do enjoy reasoned sociopolitical discourse. There is a dearth of it, both online and otherwise. Lively debate interspersed with humorous feints is satisfying. Seemingly omnipresent bumper-sticker labeling, name calling, and shizzle slinging are tiresome.

 

[volprof]

If so, do you assert that free & fair elections are no longer possible in Turkey? Expound.


The question of Turkey's future and which other countries should take what action when.


Actually, I have a sounder and more balanced perspective than that you which reveal through your posts. I'm not a "Kremlin butt-sniffer." You're not the Lord of the Flies, and I don't need your acquiescence to post anywhere on VN. As you say, "This is America."

I do enjoy reasoned sociopolitical discourse. There is a dearth of it, both online and otherwise. Lively debate interspersed with humorous feints is satisfying. Seemingly omnipresent bumper-sticker labeling, name calling, and shizzle slinging are tiresome.

Your post was incoherent, and I rightfully called you out on it, in as nice a way as I could. Good to know you're not a Kremlin butt-kisser though. About the rest, I couldn't care.

 

[Pacer92]

Considering the first was an agreement with another poster, I'm not sure how you single me out for this all too common reaction concerning Obama's strengths (or lack thereof). However, yes, the second time it was repeated as it is true.

How would a strong leader deal with Turkey? Easy enough. Revoke the NATO nuclear sharing agreement with them in particular and pull the bombs out of Turkey. And dare them to object otherwise. It's U.S. property, with U.S. maintenance and support with the U.S. paying the bill on the upgrades to the storage facilities. And if Erdogan didn't like it? Eat a fat one because we just don't care. WTF are you going to do about it? Threaten our troops and threaten to seize the weapons that are rightfully ours and in direct violation of the Nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty you signed? I don't think so, Scooter.

Open another base in a nearby friendly country for operations against ISIS to continue and remove all U.S. forces from Turkey. Support the calls for a independent Kurdistan and recognize their independence if they gained it. Remind them civilized nations don't go after judges, politicians and military members because they have a difference of opinion in political matters.

Remove their position of perceived power and remind them they aren't the only ones with valuable real estate in that part of the world. If they fall into the sphere of Russia's influence, so be it. That's their loss.

I agree with the stance, but I don't think it's that easy. We can dictate to most countries, but Turkey is not one, imo. Nuclear weapons are within spitting distance in any direction of Turkey, on both sides...and the influence of that is permanent and substantial in many ways. I think the economic influence is often overlooked...

The geographics of Turkey is unfortunate/fortunate depending on the agenda. Economically, the ban of Russian tourism by Putin after the jet shooting has hurt Turkey more than most realize. Russia is the most populated country in that sphere with very few vacay destinations..

Bottom line is that both us and Russia can offer Nuclear defense. The combination of open borders, which allow the infux of people who hate Erdogan(terrorism) and economic sanctions have hit Turkey where it hurts any country...the pocketbook and public support..

Erdogan is a desperate man, imo. Not to be trusted and will do whatever he has to, to cling onto power.

 

[IPleadInsanity]

That is well put, as the Italian "boot" and the Sicilian "football," coupled with the Tunisian "punt returner," could indeed serve as such a choke point.

Heck, it's possible that even the Greek Isles (which will never be on Turkey's side of any alliance, other than one they're included in, such as NATO) could serve as a choke point, only leaving us a gap between them and the North African coast to cordon. That would be risky though, as it would leave us exposed to the Ottomans. The Aegean, as you said, is probably the wiser of the two, although it would still allow the Black Sea Fleet and the Turkish naval joke to still run a bit in the Mediterranean.

But, again, this is why I think Iran would be a far better long-term strategic partner. As far as Israel is concerned, I really couldn't give a damn. I hope they make it, and I support their democracy, something so rare in that part of the world, but they really mean nothing more to me than an intelligence partner. They're not going to help us win a major war, should the crap ever fly. A Turkey or an Iran, however, would, and I'll take Iran out of those two.

Bad news is the Iranian religious leadership wants to kill us all and they would not help us in a war with any Muslim nation.

 

[Pacer92]

Bad news is the Iranian religious leadership wants to kill us all and they would not help us in a war with any Muslim nation.

There are over 350,000 Christians in Iran. When Iran starts forcefully taking land, building walls, miltarily policing Christian neighborhoods, waging undercover genocide...like Israel does Palestinians, I might agree...

 

[Grand Vol]

There are over 350,000 Christians in Iran. When Iran starts forcefully taking land, building walls, miltarily policing Christian neighborhoods, waging undercover genocide...like Israel does Palestinians, I might agree...

lol

 

[tumscalcium]

There are over 350,000 Christians in Iran. When Iran starts forcefully taking land, building walls, miltarily policing Christian neighborhoods, waging undercover genocide...like Israel does Palestinians, I might agree...

Christians in Iran kill, terrorize and are a major threat to other Iranians?

 

[Pacer92]

lol

What's funny?