'19 TX WR Isaiah Neyor

[VolFanNC09]

Not that my view matters, but a 5* basically has the physical skills and attributes to start at most P5 schools as a freshman.

The thing about this is people who are 2 and 3* can actually have a growth spurt or go through a college S&C program and do the work and grow in their sport. You normally see breakout players for 2* and 3* when they are juniors.

At the same time a 5* can be a bust if they don’t do the work.

 

[Sudden Impact]

When was the last time the Elite 11 failed to have at least 1 of their QB's drafted in the first round? I'll wait while you go back over a decade.

Kind of Funny......the reverse of this is more interesting. How many non Elite 11 players were drafted in the 1st round?

 

[sjt18]

Idk how anyone could fail to understand this unless it’s just willful ignorance.

How recruiting rankings fare projecting future NFL Draft picks

Literally NOTHING in that argument refutes what I said and the numbers COMPLETELY support what I'm saying. Maybe for some reason you just don't understand... I don't know. But that very article established that 40% of 5* were overrated using the draft as the standard. Almost 80% of 4* were overrated. In total, they accurately rated 27% of the guys they called blue chips.

In the meantime... they missed 65% of the guys with enough talent to play in the NFL. They gave 2* to EXACTLY the same number of NFL draftees as they gave 5*.

What does that mean? It means that if a coach can find and correctly evaluate talent... he can build a great roster without going after the same players Saban et al pursues... and without having highly rated classes.

I have very often said and still hold that the ratings are "generally true" but not specifically true. The class position is probably about right plus or minus 10 or 15 places when it comes to REAL talent. The average star rating means more than the rating of any particular player. That's true in part because that's the game the recruiting sites play... as evidenced by the article you linked.

 

[Vol8188]

Kind of Funny......the reverse of this is more interesting. How many non Elite 11 players were drafted in the 1st round?

As a % do you believe the elite 11 or every other high school qb has a greater chance of going in the 1st round?

The answer is obvious. The odds any one of the elite 11 being drafted or drafted in the first round is far, far higher than the odds of the rest of the field.

 

[sjt18]

You're finding the exceptions and pretending those are the rule. Go back and look at the Elite 11 QB classes and you'll find a much higher % of great QBs than you will looking at 2 and 3* players.

Do you really think that 65% of the players taken in the draft represents "exceptions"?

 

[butchna]

He's been above average and it took him what 6 years to make a pro bowl? I don't think that's what anyone is hoping for in the number 1 pick. Granted that was a bad draft class in general.

Pro Bowlers aren’t busts. Doesn’t scream Jamarcus Russell.

 

[sjt18]

The recruiting rankings seem to be more important than any single coach in terms of predicting success.

Who said they only pay attention to a single coach? They're going to look at who Saban, Fisher, Smart, Day, and Dabo pursue for sure. Then they'll look at another tier that might include Cristobal, Mack Brown, and other coaches in the 2nd tier.

How many hours do you think it would take to watch all the film of all the recruits from across the country and accurately compare and rate them? You cannot seriously believe that the recruiting web sites do anything of the sort.

 

[Vol8188]

Do you really think that 65% of the players taken in the draft represents "exceptions"?

There's over 250 spots in the draft. There's 1,500 to 1,800 3* players. Idk why you think that is impressive. There's 32 5* players. Obviously the majority of guys drafted will not be 5* players. Yet, they have the highest probability by a long, long shot. The numbers dictate the majority of players drafted will be 3* or less just because the majority of players are 3* or less.

Still 5* players have the highest chance of being drafted (over 10x more likely than a 3*). 4* players have the next highest chance (around 4x as likely as a 3*).

Yes, the roughly 1 out of 20 3* guys unlike the other 19/20 are the exceptions. I'm not sure why that's a difficult concept.

If we want to win at a high level, we have to recruit at a high level.

 

[Falcons02]

Could y'all please go hijack a different thread and leave this one from this kid's recruitment?

Nice folks, good conversation, like most of you, but digging through tangential comments for real updates has become tedious.

 

[butchna]

As a % do you believe the elite 11 or every other high school qb has a greater chance of going in the 1st round?

The answer is obvious. The odds any one of the elite 11 being drafted or drafted in the first round is far, far higher than the odds of the rest of the field.

After Kyler Murray, where is your elite franchise QB who participated in that overhyped reality show?

 

[Vol8188]

Pro Bowlers aren’t busts. Doesn’t scream Jamarcus Russell.

In year 6? I also put a lot less into the pro bowl than I do All-pro. Given the pro bowl is based on popularity and I discount the opinion of the average fan. There's numerous examples of guys who played poorly and made the pro-bowl.

 

[KPT_VFL]

Teams with mostly 4-5 star are consistently winning the championship. Players of any ranking can turn out to be studs or busts. Both of these can be true. Stop arguing fools.

 

[Rylee_Vol18]

Didn’t quote you

I know.

 

[NighthawkVol]

You're finding the exceptions and pretending those are the rule. Go back and look at the Elite 11 QB classes and you'll find a much higher % of great QBs than you will looking at 2 and 3* players.

The fact that there are exceptions is the point. As is the fact that the rankings coincide with which coaches offer which players. If y’all think dweebs like Tom Lemming are watching these kids and have any idea what they’re looking at, you’re insane. They’re mainly ranking them based on who offers.

There are players of every rating who end up being great and players of every rating who end up being nothing. The key…now hear me out…is to find and sign the GOOD players, regardless of what they’re rated by the dweebs. Coaches who evaluate well do just that.

 

[Sudden Impact]

As a % do you believe the elite 11 or every other high school qb has a greater chance of going in the 1st round?

The answer is obvious. The odds any one of the elite 11 being drafted or drafted in the first round is far, far higher than the odds of the rest of the field.

Jarrett Guarantano was an Elite 11 QB and so was Harrison Bailey. I guess we just bring out the best. Elite 11 QB should not be a measuring stick in this discussion.
You need more than a 5* QB to make a team. How Many 3* QBs went in the first Round or small school QBs probably one or two in the 10 year span.

My point is that there is no way these Recruiting Agencies can or will ever be able to evaluate accurately the 8000+ players and they use the offer list more than they are able to do evaluations.
In the process several will be left out.....

All the NIL hype is going to make it even worse.....because for the most part NIL is several cases is based on followers and social medias.

 

[NighthawkVol]

Jarrett Guarantano was an Elite 11 QB and so was Harrison Bailey. I guess we just bring out the best. Elite 11 QB should not be a measuring stick in this discussion.
You need more than a 5* QB to make a team. How Many 3* QBs went in the first Round or small school QBs probably one or two in the 10 year span.

My point is that there is no way these Recruiting Agencies can or will ever be able to evaluate accurately the 8000+ players and they use the offer list more than they are able to do evaluations.
In the process several will be left out.....

All the NIL hype is going to make it even worse.....because for the most part NIL is several cases is based on followers and social medias.

Wasn’t Maurer as well?

Edit: yep.

https://www.elite11.com/2018

 

[Vol8188]

After Kyler Murray, where is your elite franchise QB who participated in that overhyped reality show?

Considering how recent Murray was drafted (2019), you're not leaving me with many options nor much time for them to become "elite franchise QBs". But your answer is probably Trevor Lawrence.

 

[sjt18]

There's over 250 spots in the draft. There's 1,500 to 1,800 3* players. Idk why you think that is impressive.

I can't help you if you cannot understand the simple meaning of this sentence: "The recruiting sites MISS more players than they FIND using the draft as the measure." It isn't about the % of lower rated players who are drafted. It is the FACT that the recruiting sites DO NOT CORRECTLY RATE those players. And the fact that they artificially limit the number of high grades they hand out. If they didn't then they would be so inaccurate that no one would pay attention to them.

There's 32 5* players. Obviously the majority of guys drafted will not be 5* players. Yet, they have the highest probability by a long, long shot.

Not the issue. You really don't understand that? Fact is that they are only 60% accurate on the guys they claim are the best of the best.... the "can't miss" prospects. At the same time, there are more 2* or lower guys that they miss completely.

The numbers dictate the majority of players drafted will be 3* or less just because the majority of players are 3* or less.

No they don't. There is NOTHING if you are correct about the recruiting sites that keeps them from giving every future draftee a 4/5* rating. They artificially limit the number they give out to give a greater appearance of accuracy. Ostensibly if they were as good as you believe... ALL future draftees would be considered blue chips by 247.

Still 5* players have the highest chance of being drafted (over 10x more likely than a 3*). 4* players have the next highest chance (around 4x as likely as a 3*).

Not even REMOTELY germane to my point. Has nothing to do with it.

If we want to win at a high level, we have to recruit at a high level.

If by "high level" you mean "highly rated" by the recruiting sites... then you're wrong. If you mean that UT must find talent at or approaching the top tier REGARDLESS OF RATINGS... then you are correct.

The rankings are nowhere near as precise as you think.

 

[butchna]

In year 6? I also put a lot less into the pro bowl than I do All-pro. Given the pro bowl is based on popularity and I discount the opinion of the average fan. There's numerous examples of guys who played poorly and made the pro-bowl.

I’m sure GM’s don’t waste their regrets on 8 year starters who make Pro Bowls. Too many real busts who’ve earned said regrets.

 

[Vol8188]

The fact that there are exceptions is the point. As is the fact that the rankings coincide with which coaches offer which players. If y’all think dweebs like Tom Lemming are watching these kids and have any idea what they’re looking at, you’re insane. They’re mainly ranking them based on who offers.

There are players of every rating who end up being great and players of every rating who end up being nothing. The key…now hear me out…is to find and sign the GOOD players, regardless of what they’re rated by the dweebs. Coaches who evaluate well do just that.

It's dweebs who watch these kids for Bama, Georgia, Texas A&M etc.

 

[sjt18]

Jarrett Guarantano was an Elite 11 QB and so was Harrison Bailey. I guess we just bring out the best. Elite 11 QB should not be a measuring stick in this discussion.
You need more than a 5* QB to make a team. How Many 3* QBs went in the first Round or small school QBs probably one or two in the 10 year span.

My point is that there is no way these Recruiting Agencies can or will ever be able to evaluate accurately the 8000+ players and they use the offer list more than they are able to do evaluations.
In the process several will be left out.....

All the NIL hype is going to make it even worse.....because for the most part NIL is several cases is based on followers and social medias.

Why these guys can't get this simple concept is beyond me.

 

[butchna]

Considering how recent Murray was drafted (2019), you're not leaving me with many options nor much time for them to become "elite franchise QBs". But your answer is probably Trevor Lawrence.

He’s an “elite QB”? Pretend you understand words.

 

[Vol8188]

I’m sure GM’s don’t waste their regrets on 8 year starters who make Pro Bowls. Too many real busts who’ve earned said regrets.

A pro-bowl has 0 to do with ability, talent, or how well you played. Vince Young and Derek Anderson made pro-bowls. Fans voting on LT is not a valid measure.

 

[Vol8188]

He’s an “elite QB”? Pretend you understand words.

You limited me to players after Murray. Murray came out in 2019. So you intentionally gave an incredibly small pool of rookie QBs and guys who've been in league for 1 year. You provided a loaded question, intentionally and are now pretending an inability to provide a list of "elite" QBs who have been in the NFL for less than 2 years invalidates the system. Even you realize how dumb that is.

 

[sjt18]

It's dweebs who watch these kids for Bama, Georgia, Texas A&M etc.

Not sure if you know this but every major program uses a real recruiting consultant to help them find and evaluate recruits. Their work isn't for public consumption.

The recruiting sites in addition to offer lists, comments by coaches, and the intensity with which top programs pursue players... will look at HS performance, camp performance, and measurables. But those are confirmations more often than foundations for ratings. They have neither the time nor the expertise to recognize competition level or how that might shade a player's talent.

Do you remember Chris Donald? There was a dog fight over him that eventually came down to ND and UT with UT "winning". He had the right measurables (at least publicly) and seemed to play good competition. Top recruiters were after him. Rivals gave him 5*... sure fire can't miss kind of LB. In the end, he couldn't even start for UTC. Fulmer and others misjudged him and Rivals followed them right down that hole.