'19 TX WR Isaiah Neyor

#701
#701
The fact that so many 2* get drafted is relevant. A kid that is not rated just didn't get looked at. A 2* is someone the recruiting sites chose to evaluate... and decided they had little talent.
 
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#702
#702
sjt18 said:
Literally NOTHING in that argument refutes what I said and the numbers COMPLETELY support what I'm saying. Maybe for some reason you just don't understand... I don't know. But that very article established that 40% of 5* were overrated using the draft as the standard. Almost 80% of 4* were overrated. In total, they accurately rated 27% of the guys they called blue chips.

In the meantime... they missed 65% of the guys with enough talent to play in the NFL. They gave 2* to EXACTLY the same number of NFL draftees as they gave 5*.

What does that mean? It means that if a coach can find and correctly evaluate talent... he can build a great roster without going after the same players Saban et al pursues... and without having highly rated classes.

I have very often said and still hold that the ratings are "generally true" but not specifically true. The class position is probably about right plus or minus 10 or 15 places when it comes to REAL talent. The average star rating means more than the rating of any particular player. That's true in part because that's the game the recruiting sites play... as evidenced by the article you linked.
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Using the NFL is useless. The recruiting services are right way more often than wrong for COLLEGE.
 
#703
#703
sjt18 said:
The fact that so many 2* get drafted is relevant. A kid that is not rated just didn't get looked at. A 2* is someone the recruiting sites chose to evaluate... and decided they had little talent.
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No it isn’t. You are using a flawed argument. You are talking about a guy that’s played 3-4 years in college versus a high school kid.
 
#704
#704
BigOrangeTrain said:
No it isn’t. You are using a flawed argument. You are talking about a guy that’s played 3-4 years in college versus a high school kid.
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And? All HS recruits are "potential". Not a single one has proven they can play when they step up to MUCH higher competition. Either they can evaluate talent to the level of perfection you guys claim... or they cannot.
 
#708
#708
utvolmaniac said:
Fisher’s pocketbook hasn’t suffered. Point being he was a 2* and is still playing in the league.

If that isn’t a good enough example, try this one on for size:

View attachment 428982
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If your point is they miss some players, no one is arguing against that. They miss some guys. Some guys develop more than anyone projected. Some guys they projected highly end up injured or in off field trouble.

No one is denying any of those nor is anything proclaiming its a perfect process.

But it’s a good process for sure and we should as fans be concerned with the results
 
#710
#710
Vol8188 said:
If your point is they miss some players, no one is arguing against that. They miss some guys. Some guys develop more than anyone projected. Some guys they projected highly end up injured or in off field trouble.

No one is denying any of those nor is anything proclaiming its a perfect process.

But it’s a good process for sure and we should as fans be concerned with the results
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This all started with someone else’s comment about Neyor only being a 2* out of HS. See post #600 in this thread.

And your post is spot on…that is the argument…these recruiting services miss often, both ways.
 
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#712
#712
Vol8188 said:
You limited me to players after Murray. Murray came out in 2019. So you intentionally gave an incredibly small pool of rookie QBs and guys who've been in league for 1 year. You provided a loaded question, intentionally and are now pretending an inability to provide a list of "elite" QBs who have been in the NFL for less than 2 years invalidates the system. Even you realize how dumb that is.
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I didn’t limit you. He was the only Elite 11 QB (recent or otherwise) I could recall at the moment. Matt Stafford prolly fits…I’m not sure how far back your preferred reality show tracks. They’re the “exception not the norm” amongst starting QBs in the league. The current best, Aaron Rodgers also a 2 star.
 
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#714
#714
butchna said:
I didn’t limit you. He was the only Elite 11 QB (recent or otherwise) I could recall at the moment. Matt Stafford prolly fits…I’m not sure how far back your preferred reality show tracks. They’re the “exception not the norm” amongst starting QBs in the league. The current best, Aaron Rodgers also a 2 star.
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Rodgers was 5’10 160lbs coming out of high school and if I’m not mistaken you said since or after KM
 
#715
#715
Vol8188 said:
A pro-bowl has 0 to do with ability, talent, or how well you played. Vince Young and Derek Anderson made pro-bowls. Fans voting on LT is not a valid measure.
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Vince Young made a Pro Bowl in his rookie season…when he was playing at a level that led his team to exciting wins. Not so much afterwards. Same with Anderson. They didn’t make Pro Bowls in seasons they were average or below. Elite 11 is a farcical reality show and you base whole arguments off of it…while we’re covering “valid”. 😉
 
#718
#718
bvol said:
Some 5*s are good, some suck
Some 2*s suck, some are good
I'm sure everyone understands this. Can we get back to Neyor.
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That’s where this started. Someone taking a shot at his high school rating and lying that we were calling him the “next Randy Moss”. We’ll GET BACK when they go back to the FF.
 
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#720
#720
Vol8188 said:
If your point is they miss some players, no one is arguing against that. They miss some guys. Some guys develop more than anyone projected. Some guys they projected highly end up injured or in off field trouble.

No one is denying any of those nor is anything proclaiming its a perfect process.

But it’s a good process for sure and we should as fans be concerned with the results
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Too many elite players missed by the glorified eggheads to fret over.
 
#721
#721
Vol8188 said:
As a % do you believe the elite 11 or every other high school qb has a greater chance of going in the 1st round?

The answer is obvious. The odds any one of the elite 11 being drafted or drafted in the first round is far, far higher than the odds of the rest of the field.
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It is quite obvious, You fit the questions or paraphrase your comments to fit your agenda and argument. Odds, Odds and Odds don't always agree with the facts. You go check it out. Forget the first round and go to how many elite 11 QBs are even drafted vs the rest of the field.....You don't get it....

Stars do matter but they are not the measuring stick for this comparison, It works both ways.
The point that is being Driven is that the Recruiting Agencies are throwing Darts blindfolded aided by offer lists and which schools are seeking this talent.
Nothing More, Nothing Less, Nothing Else.
 
#722
#722
Vol8188 said:
There's over 250 spots in the draft. There's 1,500 to 1,800 3* players. Idk why you think that is impressive. There's 32 5* players. Obviously the majority of guys drafted will not be 5* players. Yet, they have the highest probability by a long, long shot. The numbers dictate the majority of players drafted will be 3* or less just because the majority of players are 3* or less.

Still 5* players have the highest chance of being drafted (over 10x more likely than a 3*). 4* players have the next highest chance (around 4x as likely as a 3*).

Yes, the roughly 1 out of 20 3* guys unlike the other 19/20 are the exceptions. I'm not sure why that's a difficult concept.

If we want to win at a high level, we have to recruit at a high level.
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The real question should be is ------why is there only 32 5 stars in the entire country? Of the thousands of high school players only thirty-two of them are superstars-----I personally don't buy it.
 
#723
#723
Vol8188 said:
When was the last time the Elite 11 failed to have at least 1 of their QB's drafted in the first round? I'll wait while you go back over a decade.
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Considering you have 11 chances each year of the top Hs QBs this isn’t exactly the best comparison to use. Obviously overall the rankings and stars matter. It’s all about the right coach finding the right stars that matter and fit their system. Got to recruit to your system. Some 5 stars are 3 stars in wrong system and some 3 stars are 5 stars in right system. It’s about knowing wtf you can do as a coach and fitting a scheme to the personell. If you want to win it all you have to have talent stacked across the board. In meantime you got to take steps and work your way to that level. I for one am excited to see if Huepel gets to that point of having elite talent all over roster because I’d love to see how he would coach a team like that. He did at Oklahoma but has learned and changed a lot since then. Love to see it now
 
#724
#724
Batman1948 said:
The real question should be is ------why is there only 32 5 stars in the entire country? Of the thousands of high school players only thirty-two of them are superstars-----I personally don't buy it.
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Asked and answered because their percentages would drastically drop to the mid 40s to low 50s and agencies work off of advertising and clicks.
 
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