I'm still wondering about a reasonable long term plan anybody might have for fighting terror?
Terrorism has been around for all of history. Success comes when ordinary people don't support it and the extremists are forced to operate in the dark and to commit crimes for even their most basic logistical needs.
The key is stability and engagement with nations around the world using all the tools we have available (DIME/PMESII) so that extremists cannot operate in freedom and have limited options on where to train, get equipment, plan and launch their attacks.
Take the Jemaah Islamiyah Islamist terror group in Indonesia. As we know Indonesia is the largest Muslim population in the world. The JI is an extremist group that has conducted several successful terrorist attacks against western tourists and businesses over the past decade. They published a 20 year plan to establish a caliphate in the Pacific/Asia.
Prior to the Free Aceh Movement when the Indonesian SF went overboard, we had a solid relationship with the Indonesians. After sorting that out, and after a couple of horrendous attacks, in 2005 we restarted a military engagement program specifically to discuss and train in counter-terrorist intelligence, planning and operations. But at the same time, we promoted other engagement opportunities, especially economic and social. By building up relationships across the spectrum we remove a lot of the support for the JI and are also able to work cooperatively with the Indonesians to predict and prevent future attacks.
The strategy applies in central Asia as well. A stable Afghanistan, Pakistan and the former Soviet states (we call them the Upickastans), allows for this relationship building, strengthens ties across the spectrum and removes support for the extremists. It is extraordinarily complicated, especially in the Af/Pak border area because those areas have been autonomous for decades. For example, in 2003-04 when the Pak Army put 70,000 troops in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), we had to provide them with updated maps of the region. The Pak Army had never been in the FATA prior to that time.
Now, given the 27 nationalities and languages, the historic hatred of Pashtus and Uzbeks, etc, etc, gaining stability in Afghanistan may prove to be beyond our capability. Certainly the mistakes we make during the heat of battle (or even the perception of mistakes) hurts our effort. But that doesn't mean that stability in Central Asia isn't a US national interest. It most definitely is in our national interest, which is why President Obama has reinforced our efforts in the region. The biggest problem now is communicating that to the country and maintaining our national commitment to the effort--that is where we are really failing right now.