Keeton is coming off an injury. Much of his passing effectiveness is predicated on his ability to force teams to respect his running ability. If he can't run then he will struggle. He's most effective throwing the ball short. His completion % is helped alot by the number of screens they run. He tends to float the ball badly at times when throwing deep.
USU loses their top 2 WR's from last year and top 2 RB's. Reynolds who was their top statistical WR was also the guy who "showed up" against the better opponents. Their listed starters at WR totaled about 800 yds last year. They have little to no depth behind them.
Seven of the top 11 tacklers from last year's team are gone. They lost good DB's and do not have size at DB.
In short, I have gone from believing this would be a challenge and a "scare" to believing UT should beat them handily. They simply do not return the kind and amount of talent they need to hang with the Vols.
It is football. Weird stuff happens. But this should be a game that UT controls and wins by 20 or better.
glad to see some real talk on the game. also glad to see some informed analysis.
"Keeton is coming off an injury. Much of his passing effectiveness is predicated on his ability to force teams to respect his running ability."
Definitely true. He is a good runner. He is practicing now, which is 3.5 months ahead of schedule, so I feel good about his return. He had been walking without crutches for a few months already.
"His completion % is helped alot by the number of screens they run. He tends to float the ball badly at times when throwing deep."
Half true. We ran a lot of screens with Kerwynn Williams two seasons ago, but not last year. I'd say Keeton threw around 6-10 screens all season before he got hurt. We threw a few more with the backup QB to get him into the rhythm of games though. As for the deep ball, keeton has an excellent one. He completes a fairly high percentage of them and it is rarely intercepted. Over his career, he is 83/110 on 3rd and long (7+ yards) which is 75%. I don't know how many of those are long passes, and I wish there was a way to see stats on a true deep ball, but I think that is indicative that he can complete longer passes.
"USU loses their top 2 WR's from last year and top 2 RB's. "
This is true going by the stats. At WR, we will miss reynolds and Van Leeuwen for sure. Swindall is good and our most athletic receiver; natson is tiny but very very fast. We had good depth last year, and I'm not worried about WR at all. I think we go six deep just fine. They don't have the numbers, but they backed up some 4 year starters and two who went on to the NFL (one quit, one is on the 49ers).You mentioned we return 800 yards at WR, but it's more like 1,200. I know that you have a lot of good WRs coming in, but for comparison, your leading WR returning has under 300 yards. I'm not saying ours are better. I'd take your freshman WR recruits over ours without hesitation. I'm just saying that if inexperience hurts one set of receivers, it isn't ours.
As for RB, we lose two guys who started out 3rd and 4th on the depth chart but moved up due to injuries. Demartino ended up being good, although he wasn't explosive. He really stepped up and played well when we needed him to, especially in the bowl game. However, Joe Hill, our main RB who was injured last year, is a very good player that has played behind 3 RBs drafted in the last 2 years to the NFL. If not for that, he would have some better production on paper. He has great hands and is speedy, but is coming off an ACL. He suffered it the first week of October, so I imagine he will be back to full strength, but you never know. If he can't go week 1, we are in a little trouble. I think we'd be okay, but it won't be a strength like it will if Hill can go full speed.
"They lost good DB's and do not have size at DB."
Definitely true about losing good ones. One will be drafted and a safety has a shot.
As for the size, I don't know what size you expect at DB. we go 5-11 170/5-11 185. Yours are 6-1 180 and 5-10/177. Very similar to me. Safeties go 6-3 205/6-1 201. Yours go 6-0 199/6-1 204. So you average 1 pound more and 1 inch taller at CB and 1.5 inches shorter and 4 pounds less at safety. It's a wash to me, and I wouldn't call either side really very small.
The biggest concern you left off is OL. We lost a center who will be drafted and 3 other starters. We have 3 guys who have starting experience, but it is always hard to replace a 4-year starting NFL guy. I haven't seen the line play yet, so I don't know how they'll be. Our OL likes to cut block on the line to tire out bigger DLs, so expect a lot of that.