Vols Favored Big vs USCe -- How?

[OrangeVolMan]

I think that is crazy. Tennessee held the ball for 22 minutes. That's an eternity to the offense CJH runs. They did it by abusing the WRs at the line and pressure on the line. Same thing Georgia did last year, the same thing USC did, the same thing Florida's defense did, and USC will try the same thing again. Strong corners that don't let receivers release and an attacking line has beaten this team three times. Any team with bullying corners and a respectable line appears to be a problem.

Commonly seen against Tennessee
1. Beat up the WR's and and have the line control the QB
2. Try to control the clock and not allow anything deep
3. Shootout

I have only seen number one beat Tennessee since the "on-switch" was hit.

USC beat us by scoring 63 points. UT scored 38 points, threw for 355 yards and had over 500 yards in offense. So saying USC will do the same thing they did last year is not an issue.

 

[sgacock]

A look at the history of the games in the past 20 years (basically the post-Fulmer era. Yeah, it was all Vols before then.) The majority of games have been decided by less than 2 touchdowns. Indeed, about half the games have been decided by less than 1 TD.

08 through 09 set a precedent for 3 straight years of "blowouts as is potential this year

I would think he spread should be about 6.5

22	September 27, 2003	Knoxville, TN	#8 Tennessee	23	South Carolina	20OT
23	October 30, 2004	Columbia, SC	#12 Tennessee	43	South Carolina	29
24	October 29, 2005	Knoxville, TN	South Carolina	16	#23 Tennessee	15
25	October 28, 2006	Columbia, SC	#8 Tennessee	31	South Carolina	24
26	October 27, 2007	Knoxville, TN	Tennessee	27	#15 South Carolina	24OT
27	November 1, 2008	Columbia, SC	South Carolina	27	Tennessee	6
28	October 31, 2009	Knoxville, TN	Tennessee	31	#21 South Carolina	13
29	October 30, 2010	Columbia, SC	#17 South Carolina	38	Tennessee	24
30	October 29, 2011	Knoxville, TN	#14 South Carolina	14	Tennessee	3
31	October 27, 2012	Columbia, SC	#17 South Carolina	38	Tennessee	35
32	October 19, 2013	Knoxville, TN	Tennessee	23	#11 South Carolina	21
33	November 1, 2014	Columbia, SC	Tennessee	45	South Carolina	42OT
34	November 7, 2015	Knoxville, TN	Tennessee	27	South Carolina	24
35	October 29, 2016	Columbia, SC	South Carolina	24	#18 Tennessee	21
36	October 14, 2017	Knoxville, TN	South Carolina	15	Tennessee	9
37	October 27, 2018	Columbia, SC	South Carolina	27	Tennessee	24
38	October 26, 2019	Knoxville, TN	Tennessee†	41	South Carolina	21
39	September 26, 2020	Columbia, SC	#16 Tennessee†	31	South Carolina	27
40	October 9, 2021	Knoxville, TN	Tennessee	45	South Carolina	20
41	November 19, 2022	Columbia, SC	South Carolina	63	#5 Tennessee	38
42	September 30, 2023	Knoxville, TN

 

[Cartervol]

I'd take SC and those points, it's too many looking at both these teams so far this year. Going to be one of those ugly grind it out type of games. Attitude game. Can't let SC be the aggressor this time or they might beat the Vols twice in a row. These two teams look pretty evenly matched except at QB.

 

[SpaceCoastVol]

Why would the odds go down that much getting closer to kickoff?

I don't know. I don't gamble, but that's what happened with FU.

 

[volbound1700]

I think that is crazy. Tennessee held the ball for 22 minutes. That's an eternity to the offense CJH runs. They did it by abusing the WRs at the line and pressure on the line. Same thing Georgia did last year, the same thing USC did, the same thing Florida's defense did, and USC will try the same thing again. Strong corners that don't let receivers release and an attacking line has beaten this team three times. Any team with bullying corners and a respectable line appears to be a problem.

Commonly seen against Tennessee
1. Beat up the WR's and and have the line control the QB
2. Try to control the clock and not allow anything deep
3. Shootout

I have only seen number one beat Tennessee since the "on-switch" was hit.

I would like to see TOP for first half when Florida won the game. Tennessee did play better in second half and if they could gave capitalized on a few plays and not had a couple of bad calls, who knows. First half they got dominated though.

 

[volfan102455]

Florida played defense with their offense and that is the secret against Tennessee. Don't let Tennessee's offense on the field by taking advantage of our garbage defense to run clock. Then by the time our offense gets the ball, they are not crisp. If you let Tennessee's offense get the ball often, we will get hot and pour on the points. If you sustain long drives and keep it out of the hands of the offense, they won't play crisp. This even worked some last year.

This is what they did. Some will disagree because they want to blame the QB for not scoring enough points but that is the pattern that teams are using.

Bama did not do that last year, because they had weapons too, and it ended up being a race to the finish line.

 

[OrangeBeachVol]

Just the opening bet line, it will change as the week goes on. The betting for both sides will determine the final point spread. Vegas is about making $ off the point spread, not who wins.

 

[lifeisdeep]

I would like to see TOP for first half when Florida won the game. Tennessee did play better in second half and if they could gave capitalized on a few plays and not had a couple of bad calls, who knows. First half they got dominated though.

There were more than a couple bad calls. That game was as corruptly officiated as any in the history of professional sports. Every one of those refs deserves to get hit by a bus. Repeatedly.

 

[Volways]

1) Night game in Neyland
2) Revenge factor

 

[volgr]

Taking SC with that big of a spread seems like easy money = sucker bet usually.

 

[Manchester Vol]

Tennessee rush offense: #4
South Carolina rush defense: #105

I like this but the delta of quality of competition was/is enormous.

 

[ftsandersvol]

Early lines are from 11 to 13.

How is this possible?

Pro gamblers in Vegas know the crew calling the game on Saturday night.

 

[TC 83]

Maybe I am just an old man yelling at a cloud but I think the whole "vols by fiddy" is so dumb.

It is but it’s funny. The “doesn’t/don’t matter” just hits.

 

[mayneland]

Sooner or later we'll play like we did against Clemson!! Florida was a toss-up,could've went either way. Everybody on our schedule is highly beatable, even Georgia and Alabama. They're both struggling.

 

[ftsandersvol]

Not trying to be negative here, but we need to take our stats so far with a grain of salt. We’ve only played one legitimate team and didn’t fair too well in any stat category in that game. We’re going to have to play a lot better than that if we want to come out with a win on Saturday night.

 

[Manchester Vol]

Pro gamblers in Vegas know the crew calling the game on Saturday night.

This is the truth.

 

[Pride85]

You guys are focusing on the offense for USC. What you are overlooking is how bad their rushing attack and defense is right now. They are ranked 120th in rushing offense and 120th in total defense. They are the worst rushing offense and worst defense in the SEC and nearly the entire country. There is little chance they will be able to stop us, and we might be able to stop them by playing the pass.

 

[sechamp2012]

Another factor
UT #1 in SEC Sacks 17

USCjr #1 in SEC Sacks allowed 16

 

[SScarbrough]

Well, they beat us last year and we had alot better team.

 

[gray0306]

refs already have the game figured out ....a ton of holding and off sides call against SC will benefit Tenn. Again, refs already know the winner

 

[JMSqb11]

SCAR sucks and mays is gonna be back. Night atmosphere. Sounds fair to me.

This has makings of Kentucky game last year. Only I doubt the media will have the “trap game” narrative as everyone knows Heupel and Milton will be out for blood after last year…. Probably more about doing it for Hendon than anything. Crowd should be electric.

 

[TNinSC]

sadly, i saw that spread as a kiss of death...

 

[UTFranklinVol]

Maybe we’re not as bad as the nay sayers keep saying around here?

We arent playoff contenders and have a ton of issues but we ought to be well favored over a horrible USCe team with no OL on our home field at night.

 

[KTrain]

We started at -8.5 against Florida and lost by 13. A big line means nothing.

The difference here is simple.
1. We play in Neyland. This year UF was at Swamp & their better than ppl thought & last year SC@ W. Brice tough super loud venues.
2. We lead SEC in Sacks 17 by our D. USCe O Line has given up 16 sacks most in SEC.
3. We lead the SEC in Rushing yards. SC is last in rushing yards.
4. Will that translate into a W , who knows but this is why the line is around 11.
Simple as that
I will add our team does not respond well at loud rowdy venues (see UGA 2022), so even if we do slide by USC, TAM.
The big hurdle to take this team to another level would be to tame the Tuscaloosa crowd. GBO

 

[CAVPUT]

sadly, i saw that spread as a kiss of death...

Let me add to your concern. We're going to be paying tribute to the '98 national championship team on Saturday. We don't seem to play our best in these "tribute" games. Plus, any time I see Fulmer on the field, my stomach feels a bit sour.