Vols vs Florida Atlantic? Thoughts?

#226
#226
What the Ref's consider a foul this game will go a long way to determine the game. If they call every touch it will cause Tenn problems. This year players that drive the basket then jump into the defender as they shoot often get rewarded with the foul (I think you will see this called a lot) I believe we will make them work hard to make 3's but they will offset that by driving hard to the paint. We need one of our bigs to have a really good offensive game, if we get that, I think we win.
 
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#230
#230
Vols are 23rd in total steals on the season with 290, FAU is 88th in total steals with 241.
Vols are 12th in total rebounds on the season with 1346, FAU is 5th with 1401.
Vols are 77nd in blocks on the season with 129, FAU is 233rd with 91.
Vols are 249th in turnovers on the season with 425, FAU is 219th at 416.

On the year we have 578 fouls and FAU had 564.

So really this game will be about turnovers and rebounds, if they do better in those categories then we'll be missing the Elite Eight. But if we out rebound them and take care of the ball I think we'll win the game.

FAU shoots in the top 60 in both FG% and 3PT %, so if they're getting clean looks and easy buckets they'll take advantage.
 
#231
#231
vols 30 said:
Disagree
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Your average fan only looks at offense. Missouri is much better than either of those teams on the defensive end...which made both teams' offense look good. If Tennessee plays defense with its normal intensity, FAU will struggle on offense. And if FAU plays defense like it did last night, Tennessee will be just fine on offense.
 
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#232
#232
MoCo_Vol said:
Vols are 23rd in total steals on the season with 290, FAU is 88th in total steals with 241.
Vols are 12th in total rebounds on the season with 1346, FAU is 5th with 1401.
Vols are 77nd in blocks on the season with 129, FAU is 233rd with 91.
Vols are 249th in turnovers on the season with 425, FAU is 219th at 416.

On the year we have 578 fouls and FAU had 564.

So really this game will be about turnovers and rebounds, if they do better in those categories then we'll be missing the Elite Eight. But if we out rebound them and take care of the ball I think we'll win the game.

FAU shoots in the top 60 in both FG% and 3PT %, so if they're getting clean looks and easy buckets they'll take advantage.
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Let's also consider what teams those stats were compiled against. OIe Miss was one of the best teams on FAU's schedule. Ole Miss was one of the worst teams on UT's schedule. FAU hasn't played a Kansas, a Texas, or an Alabama. Or a Duke, for that matter.

Don't get me wrong, winning that many games is impressive, even against a mid-major schedule. But when comparing stats against their schedule vs. stats against UT's, it's apples and oranges.
 
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#233
#233
I watched both of their games; they do not scare me. If we play ball we will beat them, if we don't we lose. They were kinda lucky that the refs didn't see Memphis calling timeout before the tie up; we could easily be playing Memphis and Penny on TH.
 
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#234
#234
FAU played North Texas, top rated scoring defensive team, twice and scored a total of 116 points (50 & 66). The only other top 50 defense's was Charlotte(17th) (x2 games 70 & 67) and S. Alabama (45th) [84 points]. They did score over 100 points 3 times (UTSA - 325, Rice - 323, & E. Mich - 347) but it was against atrocious defenses. Maybe it's me but looking at their schedule and how they got their record, it's not surprising since they haven't played a P5 school since mid November, until they faced Memphis. Maybe they come out and shoot "lights out" for a consistent 40 minutes, because that would be the only way I can see us losing, or maybe horrible officiating in calling fouls. If they think N. Texas was a tough defense, they will be in for a long night against us. Maybe it's my orange colored glasses but I see it 79 - 61 Vols!

Go Vols!!
 
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#235
#235
I can't imagine us losing to a mid-major like Florida Atlantic in a game with this much at stake. Losing to Mich St or K State is another story though.
 
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#237
#237
I think Mashack and Philips have great games offensively. FAU is quick and fast but I’m anticipating the lanes will be open 1 on 1 with a collapse to stop ON and Aidoo. The press will hurt us so we will probably need 36 min out of Santi.
 
#238
#238
I don't think the team will lose focus, and they've been in the March mindset all season. Even with the tough losses and the injuries they've always been focused on what they needed to do in the tournament. I think TN would have beat Memphis and FDU, but I don't think FAU would have beaten Louisiana and Duke.

Still FAU is a good 3 ball shooting team, they have plenty of guards as well to play fast and loose. We can't try to run with them, we gotta play our game and see if they can handle it.
 
#241
#241
Just so we're keeping score, FAU coach Dusty May was on a sports talk show today saying he didn't have a problem with the windmill dunk attempt at the end of the game. "I wish he hadn't done it, but at the end of the day I don't have a problem with it." Said in the opposite situation, he was less angry about a team showing off at the end than he was his team not playing defense to stop it. There's no denying this guy is cocky and confident in his brand of basketball.
 
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#242
#242
JohnnyD1024 said:
Bto, it feels like that you think we are gonna lose on Thursday and you're trying to prepare people for that outcome.
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I think the game is a lot tougher than people are thinking, maybe we blow them out, but there’s a reason Vegas & KenPom and just about every other analytical site has this around 5pts. I see posters talking double digits, saying this is one of the worst teams we’ll have played, folks saying this is a last place SEC team, there’s some major overlooking going on.
 
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#243
#243
walkenvol said:
Again, they created those shooting stats against a bunch of very weak opponents so stating the statistics without factoring in the huge disparity in quality of opponents isn’t a fair measurement IMO
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Once again, analytics take into account opponent…they just beat a Memphis team that went 3-1 against the SEC and only loss being to Bama.
 
#245
#245
Big, comfortable wins in the NCAA are more the exception than the rule. Eighty percent of the games have been
tight--and that's early-round games. Now, with the stakes even higher....tight games. What we do best, I think, is grind on people and slowly wear them down. A half-court game works to our advantage, I think. I haven't seen FA play--didn't see their game last night--but they
sound like a team that wants to get up and down the floor, shoot the trey, etc. Our game is slower tempo....and
that's what we'll want in this game, yes?
 
#246
#246
Somehow, despite having coached both places, Lane Kiffin has still not tweeted anything about this game, let alone something funny.
 
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#248
#248
The NCAA tourney is all about matchups. We have the decided size advantage. They have the speed and quickness advantage (sure would be nice to have ZZ in this one). Which advantage will win out? Purdue was the better matchup imo. They were slower on the perimeter and we had the bugs to somewhat neutralize Eddy. We need to defend the 3 point line and pound the ball inside. Should be an interesting matchup
 
#249
#249
MoCo_Vol said:
Vols are 23rd in total steals on the season with 290, FAU is 88th in total steals with 241.
Vols are 12th in total rebounds on the season with 1346, FAU is 5th with 1401.
Vols are 77nd in blocks on the season with 129, FAU is 233rd with 91.
Vols are 249th in turnovers on the season with 425, FAU is 219th at 416.

On the year we have 578 fouls and FAU had 564.

So really this game will be about turnovers and rebounds, if they do better in those categories then we'll be missing the Elite Eight. But if we out rebound them and take care of the ball I think we'll win the game.

FAU shoots in the top 60 in both FG% and 3PT %, so if they're getting clean looks and easy buckets they'll take advantage.
Click to expand...
You have to apply some form of a multiplier to these numbers for them to be comparable as we made our numbers against a top 20 schedule whereas their numbers are against a top 200 schedule? Not apples to apples IMO
 
#250
#250
walkenvol said:
You have to apply some form of a multiplier to these numbers for them to be comparable as we made our numbers against a top 20 schedule whereas their numbers are against a top 200 schedule? Not apples to apples IMO
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FAU's SOS was 132nd and VOLs was 43rd. Vols played 12 NCAA tournament teams in the regular season and FAU played 0.

Those are just the totals, the "apply some form of multiplier" is where subjectivity gets introduced. I do think we're the toughest opponent FAU will face all season, but they won't be the toughest we've faced this week. Still we've also played down to lesser opponents before and lost games we shouldn't have (Vandy, Florida, & Colorado).
 
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