One of the few times where I agree with your analysis.
Now as far as Russia going all the way to Galicia/Lviv? Right now that is 50/50, imo. I say that because that area is staunchly pro-Western and would have an insurgency that would be hard to manage and govern. A drain on resources if they do take it. Putin has hinted at thinking that he doesn't really consider that area part of "Russkiy mir". There is an argument that could be made that they may offer tacit permission for Poland to handle it or for that to be part of some greater de-militarized buffer zone for NATO/EU to worry about.
But then again, the other side of that argument would be to just go all the way to the Polish border and just make sure you control as much as possible. That would be at a great expense and would be more of a headache, however, for the reasons I mentioned above.