War in Ukraine

#64,501
#64,501
scooty_vol said:
I hope not, I'm not sure we can send enough weapons fast enough for Ukraine to push Russia out.
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at this point that doesn't seem to be the plan.

you can take it a couple ways.
1. we simply can't provide enough.
2. We don't want the Ukrainians to win outright and end the war.
3. We don't trust the Ukrainians with "enough". We give them a little, knowing they have to use it, or lose the war. We give them "too much" and they can turn around and sell it with little risk of losing if they don't use it.
4. We don't think the Ukrainians will actually win. If we give them a huge stockpile, and they lose, that all ends up in the hands of the Russians. This is why everything we are sending them are the export versions with the latest tech removed.
5. We don't want Ukraine to win and push into Russia. This would almost undoubtedly drag in more of Russia's allies, and may lead to nukes. similar to 2.
 
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#64,502
#64,502
LouderVol said:
at this point that doesn't seem to be the plan.

you can take it a couple ways.
1. we simply can't provide enough.
2. We don't want the Ukrainians to win outright and end the war.
3. We don't trust the Ukrainians with "enough". We give them a little, knowing they have to use it, or lose the war. We give them "too much" and they can turn around and sell it with little risk of losing if they don't use it.
4. We don't think the Ukrainians will actually win. If we give them a huge stockpile, and they lose, that all ends up in the hands of the Russians. This is why everything we are sending them are the export versions with the latest tech removed.
5. We don't want Ukraine to win and push into Russia. This would almost undoubtedly drag in more of Russia's allies, and may lead to nukes. similar to 2.
Click to expand...

yeah, we've put alot in the pot when do we get to the point that we either go all in or fold. we trickle weapons in, will there be enough Ukrainians to use them? it's a bad situation for the Ukrainians
 
#64,503
#64,503
LouderVol said:
lol. We took Baghdad with 34 losses. Battle of Baghdad (2003) - Wikipedia

it took 2 weeks, about 1800 dead Iraqi civilians, 0.0002% of the pop, city of about 7 million at the time, their most important city, and it was about 500km from the border.

I have seen claims of 20k dead Russians taking Mauripol which is clear bs, realistically it seems to be 2 or 3 thousand. it took Russia 2 months, about 1500 dead Ukrainian civilians, (Ukraine claims 25k dead civilians but I can't find any numbers backing that up) 0.003%, Mauripol has a population of 500k, 14x smallera, and is directly on the border.

the Russians are fielding T64s, what do you think took out enough T-90s, T-80s, T-72s to an extent where T-64s were needed? Javelins and other western provided MANPADS are probably the number 1 contributor.
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Iraq is also on the opposite side of the globe from the US. The logistical prowess needed to do that is amazing.
 
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#64,504
#64,504
Why aren't Eastern Europeans more grateful to the USSR?

FvngwWuWwAIPJdA
 
#64,506
#64,506
I always wondered why Putin let Medvedev be President. That whole period was odd to me. I never really understood it.
 
#64,507
#64,507
KB5252 said:
I always wondered why Putin let Medvedev be President. That whole period was odd to me. I never really understood it.
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At the time, it would have been unconstitutional for Putin to continue for a third term. They swapped chairs to get around the constitutional limitation. I think Putin got the constitution changed later.
 
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#64,508
#64,508
PKT_VOL said:
Iraq is also on the opposite side of the globe from the US. The logistical prowess needed to do that is amazing.
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eh, we built up for a couple years in a country that let us launch military operations from Iraqs direct border.

IMO Afghanistan was more impressive logistically. Everyone else who tried to conquer it had a land border they could rely on. granted we weren't fighting an organized military.
 
#64,509
#64,509
Velo Vol said:
Why aren't Eastern Europeans more grateful to the USSR?

FvngwWuWwAIPJdA
Click to expand...
I will be interested to see what their Victory Day parades look like this year. I could definitely see Ukraine doing something to spoil them, and it will be interesting to see how much gets displayed. They will of course claim they are only limiting the parades due to threats, but the deployment and losses in Ukraine absolutely will/would matter too.
 
#64,514
#64,514
General negative public mood on upcoming UAF counteroffensive.

I think they'll do just fine. Likely to happen around the upcoming new moon (18th) or next month (19th) if the weather, troops, plans, whatever not ready.

 
#64,519
#64,519
Velo Vol said:
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40 year old ripoff copy of F-15. Not going to make much difference.

Superficial copies are a Russian tradition. When the US came out with our primary "Class of 41" Boomer Subs, the Russians came out a couple of years later with their first one copied off the George Washington class. In fact, the first Yankee class subs turned out to be exact copies of the Ravel models. In seems the box had diagrams of Ravel's take on the US internal design, so the Ruskies copied that.
 
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#64,521
#64,521
MontyPython said:
General negative public mood on upcoming UAF counteroffensive.

I think they'll do just fine. Likely to happen around the upcoming new moon (18th) or next month (19th) if the weather, troops, plans, whatever not ready.

Click to expand...

I know its not happening, but it would have been great timing if they could have started their counteroffensive while Russia was doing the Victory Day Parades.

Hopefully the Ukrainians pick some limited strategic goals and stick to them. Try to do too much and Russia will absolutely make them pay. Not sure what all their next goals would be.

Could be to push south from Kherson. Push towards Crimea. I would say push into Crimea but that is a huge bottleneck, and they would need to push decently far east to secure that access. if they didn't get into Crimea itself I am not sure it does a lot for them. maybe push into Melitopol. I kinda like this idea the best. Doesn't give them a big win, but it sets them up for another offensive. and they would have choices the next time. They could then push south or east, and stand to gain.

Maybe they strike around Bakhmut, relieve the pressure there. Would be a big moral victory, but not very strategic imo. it could cut one of the Russian supply lines, which would make attacking Bakhmut a lot less preferable to Russia.

Pushing Dontesk/Mauripol would be another option. Kinda similar to pushing towards Crimea it would separate some Russian forces. But it also would leave them in between two Russian forces which isn't ideal. Not sure where the closest River would be to have a natural border to help protect a flank. IF accomplished it would defnitely change the calculus Russia is using.

Maybe something up near Severodonetsk. But again I am not sure they will be able to hold if they just create a salient. but this may be less defended, Ukraine was able to make large territorial gains in the area the last time.

maybe they just keep pushing from the Kharkiv direction. secure some more of the border, would help redirect some Russian logistics.
 
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#64,523
#64,523
LouderVol said:
at this point that doesn't seem to be the plan.

you can take it a couple ways.
1. we simply can't provide enough.
2. We don't want the Ukrainians to win outright and end the war.
3. We don't trust the Ukrainians with "enough". We give them a little, knowing they have to use it, or lose the war. We give them "too much" and they can turn around and sell it with little risk of losing if they don't use it.
4. We don't think the Ukrainians will actually win. If we give them a huge stockpile, and they lose, that all ends up in the hands of the Russians. This is why everything we are sending them are the export versions with the latest tech removed.
5. We don't want Ukraine to win and push into Russia. This would almost undoubtedly drag in more of Russia's allies, and may lead to nukes. similar to 2.
Click to expand...
#3 for sure. And a slight combo of #2 and 4.
 
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#64,525
#64,525
LouderVol said:
I know its not happening, but it would have been great timing if they could have started their counteroffensive while Russia was doing the Victory Day Parades.

Hopefully the Ukrainians pick some limited strategic goals and stick to them. Try to do too much and Russia will absolutely make them pay. Not sure what all their next goals would be.

Could be to push south from Kherson. Push towards Crimea. I would say push into Crimea but that is a huge bottleneck, and they would need to push decently far east to secure that access. if they didn't get into Crimea itself I am not sure it does a lot for them. maybe push into Melitopol. I kinda like this idea the best. Doesn't give them a big win, but it sets them up for another offensive. and they would have choices the next time. They could then push south or east, and stand to gain.

Maybe they strike around Bakhmut, relieve the pressure there. Would be a big moral victory, but not very strategic imo. it could cut one of the Russian supply lines, which would make attacking Bakhmut a lot less preferable to Russia.

Pushing Dontesk/Mauripol would be another option. Kinda similar to pushing towards Crimea it would separate some Russian forces. But it also would leave them in between two Russian forces which isn't ideal. Not sure where the closest River would be to have a natural border to help protect a flank. IF accomplished it would defnitely change the calculus Russia is using.

Maybe something up near Severodonetsk. But again I am not sure they will be able to hold if they just create a salient. but this may be less defended, Ukraine was able to make large territorial gains in the area the last time.

maybe they just keep pushing from the Kharkiv direction. secure some more of the border, would help redirect some Russian logistics.
Click to expand...

If they drive to the coast near Melitopol, they can both cut off the East/West supply line to Crimea AND be in range to hit the Kerch Bridge.

Net/Net: Russian troops cut off. It's Kherson Pt. II.
 
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