War in Ukraine

#69,502
#69,502
Rasputin_Vol said:
It could have been a none issue had it not been for the Kyiv Coup by the US State Department.
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it would have been a non-issue if the Russians didn't clearly buy off Yanukovych....
it would have been a non-issue if Russia hadn't sent in their agents and mercenaries to establish "independent" regions.
It would have been a non-issue if Russia didn't directly intervene to save those mercenaries.
It would have been a non-issue if Russia had never crossed the border and maintained their previous agreements.
 
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#69,503
#69,503
Vol737 said:
Bold move. No doubt they've gotten a lot of intel and tactics from the West, but something must tell them this is a worthwhile risk.... or they have an ace up their sleeve. Thoughts?
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could be they found a weak spot and will make actual gains. Or could be that after months of probing attacks found the weakest point, but it could still be too strong, and they don't do much of nothing.

I find it hard to believe that anyone calling themselves a friend of Ukraine is announcing their intentions. you don't do that.

Could be a desperate final ploy, or it could be the death blow to the Russians, my money is on it being somewhat effective but not changing the war. I could see them getting down towards Melitopol, and then being held.

Strategically this makes the most sense. Its the most isolated place. Furthest from Russia, taking it doesn't bring Ukrainian forces closer to Russia, which would make Russia's job easier. They could theoretically cut off Russian forces in the area, which would be more difficult/impossible to do elsewhere. Its also one of the few places where the geometry of the overall battlefield favors them. This is a Russian salient, so the Ukrainians have access to multiple sides to keep the pressure on which will be key if they make a real advancement. It doesn't help if some units make a break through if you can't follow it up, and you can't surround the Russians unless you can pin them in place with other forces. This area *could* allow that to happen.
 
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#69,504
#69,504
Velo Vol said:
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Thats interesting, that village is closer to Mariupol than Melitopol.

Mariupol is the last major city held by Russians.

If they are attacking from Staromaiorske to the Dniper that is an almost 100 mile front. I will be interested to see how this develops and where they are actually pushing, if they are successful.
 
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#69,505
#69,505
Vol737 said:
Bold move. No doubt they've gotten a lot of intel and tactics from the West, but something must tell them this is a worthwhile risk.... or they have an ace up their sleeve. Thoughts?
Click to expand...
I’m actually wondering if there could have been pressure to show results. A political pressure to insure support remains high. But I really hope that isn’t it. Regardless I’m sure we armed them with every bit of Intel we had to help insure the offensives success.
 
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#69,508
#69,508
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#69,514
#69,514
evillawyer said:
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has anyone seen a graphical, or descriptive break down of the Russian defense lines?

like in this tweet they claim to break several defensive lines before making this primary defensive line.

as I understand it the Russians have multiple lines, but are those only mentioning the "primary" lines mentioned above? Or would the defensive lines be some of those, and the primary would just be the biggest/most defended? and how are the mine fields counted?

if they are just now only making the first of several "primary" lines, that sounds like trouble. If they have reached a primary as the main/last/biggest, then its a good thing. where they are going to bleed the most is in between the lines. you lose a lot of momentum trying to go from one line to the next, and if there are minefields inbetween then it gets even worse. especially as any decent artilleryman is going to have those areas zeroed.
 
#69,515
#69,515
LouderVol said:
has anyone seen a graphical, or descriptive break down of the Russian defense lines?

like in this tweet they claim to break several defensive lines before making this primary defensive line.

as I understand it the Russians have multiple lines, but are those only mentioning the "primary" lines mentioned above? Or would the defensive lines be some of those, and the primary would just be the biggest/most defended? and how are the mine fields counted?

if they are just now only making the first of several "primary" lines, that sounds like trouble. If they have reached a primary as the main/last/biggest, then its a good thing. where they are going to bleed the most is in between the lines. you lose a lot of momentum trying to go from one line to the next, and if there are minefields inbetween then it gets even worse. especially as any decent artilleryman is going to have those areas zeroed.
Click to expand...
ISW’s update today called out the western analysts commentary as probably setting the expectations too high for near term AFU gains. ISW points out they are making gains and getting to key defensive points and in fact breaching them. They just don’t thing the highly detailed western public commentary is helpful with operations still ongoing.

Institute for the Study of War
 
#69,516
#69,516
NorthDallas40 said:
ISW’s update today called out the western analysts commentary as probably setting the expectations too high for near term AFU gains. ISW points out they are making gains and getting to key defensive points and in fact breaching them. They just don’t thing the highly detailed western public commentary is helpful with operations still ongoing.

Institute for the Study of War
Click to expand...
thats what I was saying earlier. Loose lips sink ships.
 
#69,517
#69,517
LouderVol said:
has anyone seen a graphical, or descriptive break down of the Russian defense lines?

like in this tweet they claim to break several defensive lines before making this primary defensive line.

as I understand it the Russians have multiple lines, but are those only mentioning the "primary" lines mentioned above? Or would the defensive lines be some of those, and the primary would just be the biggest/most defended? and how are the mine fields counted?

if they are just now only making the first of several "primary" lines, that sounds like trouble. If they have reached a primary as the main/last/biggest, then its a good thing. where they are going to bleed the most is in between the lines. you lose a lot of momentum trying to go from one line to the next, and if there are minefields inbetween then it gets even worse. especially as any decent artilleryman is going to have those areas zeroed.
Click to expand...

Ukraine Interactive map - Ukraine Latest news on live map - liveuamap.com
 
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#69,522
#69,522
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#69,524
#69,524
hog88 said:
No idea how credible this guy is but his accusations are certainly plausible.

Zelensky Allegedly has Knowledge of Biden’s Wrongdoings and is Using It as ‘Leverage,’ Famed Political Biographer Claims
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the whole case is based around someone who worked for Zelensky was at this meeting. that is broad enough where it is impossible to disprove, and vague enough where it never fully explain anything.

Supposedly this author has access to this form, but can't/won't drop actual names besides Hunter?

like I said before the whole idea doesn't make sense, and I am at the put-up-or-shut-up phase of this particular story.
 
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