War in Ukraine

#80,952
#80,952
volinbham said:
Are we making any diplomatic efforts to find a resolution to this conflict? (I think I know the answer)
Click to expand...
The US/NATO doesn't engage in diplomacy. Their reasoning is that we don't want to repeat the alleged appeasement of Neville Chamberlain.

We can't talk to our enemies.
 
#80,953
#80,953
  • Like
Reactions: PKT_VOL and NorthDallas40
#80,954
#80,954
NorthDallas40 said:
There is obvious conflict in your stances 😂

The US shouldn’t get involved.

Ok the US is going to get involved and in fact own the negotiations in whole.
Click to expand...

Nope, we SHOULDN'T have gotten involved but we're knee deep into it now and we need to get out. The only way we're going to do that is to negotiate a settlement or the Ukrainian forces get off their azzes and win.
 
#80,955
#80,955
hog88 said:
Nope, we SHOULDN'T have gotten involved but we're knee deep into it now and we need to get out. The only way we're going to do that is to negotiate a settlement or the Ukrainian forces get off their azzes and win.
Click to expand...
Your first statement has been my stance all along. Welcome to enlightenment 😬 On your second statement I think you’re setting us up for further entanglement down the road frankly. If we negotiate the peace (lol… negotiate with Putin 😂) and we force acceptance of what is negotiated then WE own the outcome and long term adherence. It’s MORE entanglement and sets us up for MORE expenditures! If nobody expects Russia to adhere to any diplomatic agreement short of full annexation of Ukraine it would obviously be foolish to seek a self defeating stance. Hey go ahead and continue diplomatic overtures that’s doing our usual due diligence as Bham suggests and I mostly agree. But be realistic and pragmatic in the expected outcomes.
 
  • Like
Reactions: BeardedVol
#80,956
#80,956
NorthDallas40 said:
Your first statement has been my stance all along. Welcome to enlightenment 😬 On your second statement I think you’re setting us up for further entanglement down the road frankly. If we negotiate the peace (lol… negotiate with Putin 😂) and we force acceptance of what is negotiated then WE own the outcome and long term adherence. It’s MORE entanglement and sets us up for MORE expenditures! If nobody expects Russia to adhere to any diplomatic agreement short of full annexation of Ukraine it would obviously be foolish to seek a self defeating stance. Hey go ahead and continue diplomatic overtures that’s doing our usual due diligence as Bham suggests and I mostly agree. But be realistic and pragmatic in the expected outcomes.
Click to expand...

I generally agree with most of your posts here over the years, but I couldn't disagree more on this one.

One, IMO there was a 100% chance that Ukraine would have fallen immediately upon Russia's 2022 invasion were it not for our provision of vast numbers of Javelins and Stingers. Without these two critical weapons (plus intelligence info), Ukraine simply would have buckled under the weight of Russian numbers. So, in hindsight, thank god we were willing to intervene, otherwise Ukraine would likely have already been annexed.

Two, since the beginning of Phase 2 of this war, our policy has evolved significantly. We were initially extremely concerned about setting off WWIII. As such, we wouldn't even give Ukraine tanks. Tanks! Now, we are allowing our weapons to be used and explode *inside* of Russia. This is a huge change of policy.

Yet, to date, I see no real indication that our policy makers *want* Ukraine to actually win this war. My guess is that they're of the opinion that its better to dance with the devil we know (Putin). But, ironically, if Putin - who has now put all of Russia on a war footing economically - is willing and able to fight to the bitter end to slowly, but surely, take over Ukraine at any cost... well, then, that probably changes our calculus.

Our European allies will not - cannot - allow Russia to slowly swallow Ukraine. They simply can't let it happen. As such, NATO will remain the vehicle that will ultimately determine how this all pans out.

My inkling is that we will likely end up fighting a hot war with Russia. Alternatively, there's a coup that removes Putin from within prior to a full-scale war. Russia is already playing with fire, for example, by attempting to assassinate private defense contractors in Germany. This is precisely the type of event that could precipitate a country like Germany to declare war on Russia and enact Article 5 of NATO.

At the end of the day the good news is that Russia's military has largely proven itself incompetent and incapable. Without any doubt, if NATO actually entered the fray, the vast majority of Russian troops in occupied Ukraine would be worm food within a matter of weeks. B2 Stealth bombers dropping 60K of JDAMs a pop - without even entering Russian airspace - has that effect.

The nuclear threats from Medvedev and other Russian jerk offs is all puff and stuff red herring fodder. Sure, Russia can start launching tactical nukes, but where does that get them? Their army in Ukraine destroyed, specifically.

So, at the end of the day, like any bully on the block, Russia just needs to be punched square in the face. That's how this war ends favorably.

When - and if - our policy makers decide that Putin's ouster is the desired outcome, make no mistake... it will happen. The absurd artillery-based ground war slog of attrition that we're currently witnessing is akin to the war the Northern Alliance was fighting v. the Taliban in Afghanistan in 2001. Once we entered the fray with our air power (and, yes, our air force remains vastly superior to Russia's), the ground war effectively ends, and Russia is properly neutered like the bitch she is.
 
Last edited:
#80,957
#80,957
MontyPython said:
I generally agree with most of your posts here over the years, but I couldn't disagree more on this one.

One, IMO there was a 100% chance that Ukraine would have fallen immediately upon Russia's 2022 invasion were it not for our provision of vast numbers of Javelins and Stingers. Without these two critical weapons (plus intelligence info), Ukraine simply would have buckled under the weight of Russian numbers. So, in hindsight, thank god we were willing to intervene, otherwise Ukraine would likely have already been annexed.

Two, since the beginning of Phase 2 of this war, our policy has evolved significantly. We were initially extremely concerned about setting off WWIII. As such, we wouldn't even give Ukraine tanks. Tanks! Now, we are allowing our weapons to be used and explode *inside* of Russia. This is a huge change of policy.

Yet, to date, I see no real indication that our policy makers *want* Ukraine to actually win this war. My guess is that they're of the opinion that its better to dance with the devil we know (Putin). But, ironically, if Putin - who has now put all of Russia on a war footing economically - is willing and able to fight to the bitter end to slowly, but surely, take over Ukraine at any cost... well, then, that probably changes our calculus.

Our European allies will not - cannot - allow Russia to slowly swallow Ukraine. They simply can't let it happen. As such, NATO will remain the vehicle that will ultimately determine how this all pans out.

My inkling is that we will likely end up fighting a hot war with Russia. Russia is already playing with fire, for example, by attempting to assassinate private defense contractors in Germany. This is precisely the type of event that could precipitate a country like Germany to declare war on Russia and enacting Article 5 of NATO.

At the end of the day the good news is that Russia's military has largely proven itself incompetent and incapable. Without any doubt, if NATO actually entered the fray, the vast majority of Russian troops in occupied Ukraine would be worm food within a matter of weeks. B2 Stealth bombers dropping 60K of JDAMs a pop - without even entering Russian airspace - has that effect.

The nuclear threats from Medvedev and other Russian jerk offs is all puff and stuff red herring fodder. Sure, Russia can start launching tactical nukes, but where does that get them? Their army in Ukraine destroyed, specifically.

So, at the end of the day, like any bully on the block, Russia just needs to be punched square in the face. That's how this war ends favorably.

When - and if - our policy makers decide that Putin's ouster is the desired outcome, make no mistake... it will happen.
Click to expand...
So with regards to the timing of how much and when on our supplied hardware. Prior to the 2022 invasion we hadn’t supplied much at all. The only significant lethal aid I can remember were the Javelins from Trump’s admin time. Don’t get me wrong it’s a great weapon. But alone it wasn’t going to stop the invading orc horde. And the Stingers you brought up I just don’t remember those being in the lethal aid prior to 2022 but they could have been I don’t know. There were hum vees and a bunch of non lethal aid but the Javelins and I think small arms stuck out on lethal aid.

Then Feb 2022 happened and Ukraine did the unthinkable. They broke serve on the Kremlin. I was among the surprised that we were still discussing Ukraine resisting the invasion in May of 2022. And they did that largely with what they had available. I believe within the first 90 days we hadn’t been able to get much in the way of lethal aid in theater. And what Ukraine did was nothing short of heroic. But that wasn’t sustainable and they absolutely had to have resupply.

With regards to what the last three admins have wanted for this situation behind closed doors they neither want Ukraine to win or lose, they simply want the whole situation to go away! Were the Kiev regime fold and a Kremlin friendly puppet be installed there is no doubt we would issue many harrumphs and rebukes … but that’s about it. And those cost nothing.

And I hope we don’t wind up in direct conflict with Russia as that is still a scary scenario as the only means of “winning” they would have would be to use their nukes and hope they actually work. Even if only one in five works that’s a lot of dead people. But it’s within the list of possible outcomes if US troops wind up in direct conflict with Russian troops and yes they have shown they are Keystone Cops and could not resist a typical US combined arms assault. Which is why I’m stating that could force the situation to go nuclear as that’s about all they have left.

What happens in here every day is the pro Kremlin propagandists hope to see the invading orcs make massive headway forcing Kiev to sue for an unconditional peace on the Kremlin’s terms while everyone else just wants the whole situation to go away for a litany of reasons. That’s it.

And I’m not sure if you responded to the correct post of mine by reading your reply but as I said in trying to make it all go away if we act as the direct negotiator and force Kiev to accept whatever we negotiate then that is OUR peace not theirs. Thus when it goes hot again and history says it will it becomes OUR war then.
 
#80,959
#80,959
PKT_VOL said:
It's hilarious when they say the quiet part out loud.
Click to expand...
They’re actually stepping on their own small d$&@ when they do it since it works against their need to cease fire, rearm, and rebuild and then move to the next invasion phase and take another bite. Just like they’ve done since 2008. Medvedev is a blowhard airbag moron.
 
#80,960
#80,960
BeardedVol said:
My position is that given Russia's position that there can be no peace with Ukraine outside of surrender, the US has no diplomatic avenue to engage with Russia, as Russia refuses to engage with Ukraine, who must be a party to any peace negotiations, since it's Ukraine that suffers under Russia's invasion, and Ukraine that must suffer under any peace negotiated with them.

The US can't manufacture a diplomatic solution between Russia and Ukraine, no matter how much you think we can, even though you can't fathom what that would even look like.
Click to expand...

I appreciate your clarification - you believe it would have no impact. I disagree and do not see the downside of trying.

As for "fathoming" what it would look like - I simply do not know what if anything either side would agree to but that doesn't mean some solution wouldn't/couldn't emerge.

It appears Ukrainians are becoming more open to some solution

www.thenation.com

New Polling Shows Significant Ukrainian Support for Diplomacy to End the War

There is more dissent from the Zelensky government’s war aims than may appear.
www.thenation.com www.thenation.com
 
  • Like
Reactions: StarRaider
#80,961
#80,961
NorthDallas40 said:
They’re actually stepping on their own small d$&@ when they do it since it works against their need to cease fire, rearm, and rebuild and then move to the next invasion phase and take another bite. Just like they’ve done since 2008. Medvedev is a blowhard airbag moron.
Click to expand...

The problem is that he was President of Russia for 4 years, followed by being Prime Minister of Russia for 8 years, and now heads the Security Council of Russia.

He's not some blowhard pundit.
 
#80,962
#80,962
PKT_VOL said:
The problem is that he was President of Russia for 4 years, followed by being Prime Minister of Russia for 8 years, and now heads the Security Council of Russia.

He's not some blowhard pundit.
Click to expand...

He's saying what Putin is telling him to say, there is only 1 decision maker in Russia.
 
#80,963
#80,963
PKT_VOL said:
The problem is that he was President of Russia for 4 years, followed by being Prime Minister of Russia for 8 years, and now heads the Security Council of Russia.

He's not some blowhard pundit.
Click to expand...
Oh both can be true. He is a lapdog idiot and a blowhard. But to your point he is in a position of power in the Kremlin. Regardless as hog said everyone is doing what Putin wants.
 
#80,964
#80,964
volinbham said:
I appreciate your clarification - you believe it would have no impact. I disagree and do not see the downside of trying.

As for "fathoming" what it would look like - I simply do not know what if anything either side would agree to but that doesn't mean some solution wouldn't/couldn't emerge.

It appears Ukrainians are becoming more open to some solution

www.thenation.com

New Polling Shows Significant Ukrainian Support for Diplomacy to End the War

There is more dissent from the Zelensky government’s war aims than may appear.
www.thenation.com www.thenation.com
Click to expand...
If the tide turns in Ukraine and Kiev wants to sue for peace on terms largely dictated by the Kremlin that is absolutely their choice. And we need to respect that choice get out of the way and let them negotiate their “peace”. And I put that in quotes because nobody should believe it will last history shows us that. But… it is their choice.

And if we block that we are 100% in the wrong.
 
#80,965
#80,965
volinbham said:
I appreciate your clarification - you believe it would have no impact. I disagree and do not see the downside of trying.

As for "fathoming" what it would look like - I simply do not know what if anything either side would agree to but that doesn't mean some solution wouldn't/couldn't emerge.

It appears Ukrainians are becoming more open to some solution

www.thenation.com

New Polling Shows Significant Ukrainian Support for Diplomacy to End the War

There is more dissent from the Zelensky government’s war aims than may appear.
www.thenation.com www.thenation.com
Click to expand...

Part of the nuance there is that the poll doesn't specify the nature of diplomacy. Most Ukrainians are against giving up Ukrainian land; giving up NATO membership bids, etc. would be favored.

The other part of the nuance is that Ukraine was fighting an impossible war after the failed offensive in 2023. They were running out of all type of ammunition. The West has since reversed and given Ukraine much more ammunition.

It also doesn't help that Medvedev recently said the quiet part out loud; that Russia will not give up on conquering Ukraine as the foundation of the war was the deeply held belief in the Kremlin that Ukraine = Russia.
 
  • Like
Reactions: NorthDallas40
#80,966
#80,966
hog88 said:
He's saying what Putin is telling him to say, there is only 1 decision maker in Russia.
Click to expand...

I have a hard time believing Putin wanted him to say that.

NorthDallas40 said:
Oh both can be true. He is a lapdog idiot and a blowhard. But to your point he is in a position of power in the Kremlin. Regardless as hog said everyone is doing what Putin wants.
Click to expand...

That's the problem. He is in a significant position of power in the Kremlin. That statement might as well have been made by Putin himself which completely undermines the diplomatic effort and years of Russia propaganda.
 
#80,967
#80,967
PKT_VOL said:
I have a hard time believing Putin wanted him to say that.



That's the problem. He is in a significant position of power in the Kremlin. That statement might as well have been made by Putin himself which completely undermines the diplomatic effort and years of Russia propaganda.
Click to expand...

Why? Until Putin opens his mouth Russia always has an out.
 
#80,968
#80,968
PKT_VOL said:
I have a hard time believing Putin wanted him to say that.



That's the problem. He is in a significant position of power in the Kremlin. That statement might as well have been made by Putin himself which completely undermines the diplomatic effort and years of Russia propaganda.
Click to expand...
We agree. I just posted as much in my own words. The first post of mine you replied to where I added he was a blowhard and an idiot. Again I think both can be true.
 
#80,970
#80,970
PKT_VOL said:
Part of the nuance there is that the poll doesn't specify the nature of diplomacy. Most Ukrainians are against giving up Ukrainian land; giving up NATO membership bids, etc. would be favored.

The other part of the nuance is that Ukraine was fighting an impossible war after the failed offensive in 2023. They were running out of all type of ammunition. The West has since reversed and given Ukraine much more ammunition.

It also doesn't help that Medvedev recently said the quiet part out loud; that Russia will not give up on conquering Ukraine as the foundation of the war was the deeply held belief in the Kremlin that Ukraine = Russia.
Click to expand...

I'm just adding data to the pile. If you follow a link to the Carnegie survey it does show a pretty large age gap in opinion. The larger point is that views have shifted. Still most Ukrainians want to continue the fight to the end.
 
#80,971
#80,971
Joe introduced Zelensky to a crowd as President Putin.

Russia Russia Russia is on Joes mind, what’s left of it. Put a fork in him, he’s done.
 
#80,972
#80,972
GSRAHITWEAADcF4
 
New posts
You must log in or register to reply here.

VN Store



Back
Top