War in Ukraine

#81,126
#81,126
MontyPython said:
I think I've read that the F16s primary purpose is intended to be more air to air than SEAD.
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I found an article that stated even the older F-16s Ukraine is getting will still increase their SEAD capability with AGM-88’s. First off it’s fully integrated into the host aircraft’s systems so all modes of operation of the HARMs are available and second the RWR and RADAR on the F-16s is better than what they are currently using making the mission more survivable. So the expectations are that Ukraine’s SEAD capability will see an immediate step function improvement. Bit they’ve still got to fly the missions and employee that capability so we’ll see over time.
 
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#81,127
#81,127
NorthDallas40 said:
I found an article that stated even the older F-16s Ukraine is getting will still increase their SEAD capability with AGM-88’s. First off it’s fully integrated into the host aircraft’s systems so all modes of operation of the HARMs are available and second the RWR and RADAR on the F-16s is better than what they are currently using making the mission more survivable. So the expectations are that Ukraine’s SEAD capability will see an immediate step function improvement. Bit they’ve still got to fly the missions and employee that capability so we’ll see over time.
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Hopefully this goes better than the Leopard tanks.
 
#81,129
#81,129
The native integration of the AGM-88 HARM into th F-16s systems will probably have the most immediate impact.

They'll be able to configure and launch it ad hoc while flying, based on coordinates derived from being painted in real time by Russian air defense radar systems, rather than having to pre-program them before they are bolted onto an SU-27.
 
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#81,131
#81,131
GUMkBW0W4AA3kOb
 
#81,132
#81,132
MontyPython said:
Picture is worth a 1,000 words...

View attachment 664850
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I don't understand this map very well with how it is setup but I think the context is Russia is slowly being pushed back/stale-mated (to me, even stale mates are kind of a Ukrainian Win).

I feel like the war was turning in Russia's favor until recently where it is turning back to Ukraine. It is basically a war of attrition to see who can hold out longer. Both nations have shown a lot of resolve.

 
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#81,133
#81,133
volbound1700 said:
I don't understand this map very well with how it is setup but I think the context is Russia is slowly being pushed back/stale-mated (to me, even stale mates are kind of a Ukrainian Win).

I feel like the war was turning in Russia's favor until recently where it is turning back to Ukraine. It is basically a war of attrition to see who can hold out longer. Both nations have shown a lot of resolve.

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The initial onset of new arms did have somewhat an impact but its just steady as she goes on the front. There is no traditional way of Ukraine to win this on the battlefield as the chess pieces are positioned. Ukraine needs a non-traditional battlefield move or impact i.e. financial stress, assassination, nuke, dirty bomb, nuclear sabotage, etc. to really have any hope.

One village, one town, one city and one field at a time. Meat grinder.

The calls are starting to grow, but I don't see an easy out for the Ukraine at this time. The Ukraine has one of two choices with the current administration.... fight till death or get sanctioned to collapse.

Finnish President Urges Ukraine to Negotiate Peace Without Preconditions | Hungarian Conservative
 
#81,134
#81,134
LSU-SIU said:
The initial onset of new arms did have somewhat an impact but its just steady as she goes on the front. There is no traditional way of Ukraine to win this on the battlefield as the chess pieces are positioned. Ukraine needs a non-traditional battlefield move or impact i.e. financial stress, assassination, nuke, dirty bomb, nuclear sabotage, etc. to really have any hope.

One village, one town, one city and one field at a time. Meat grinder.

The calls are starting to grow, but I don't see an easy out for the Ukraine at this time. The Ukraine has one of two choices with the current administration.... fight till death or get sanctioned to collapse.

Finnish President Urges Ukraine to Negotiate Peace Without Preconditions | Hungarian Conservative
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Your logic would be working if Russia was actually taking land and holding it. They have failed at that. Ukraine has taken back land or Russia has seized for short time and then loss land.

Most of the major cities are still held by Ukraine: Kiev, Kharkov, Lviv, Odessa, etc. Take a list of Ukraine's major cities. Only Sevastopol, Mariupol, Luhansk, Kherson, and Simferopol are in Russia hands and most of those were either taken in the first month of the all-out Russian invasion or in 2014 in the Annexation of Crimea. No major city has been captured the last 2 years.

1722874762501.png


EDIT: The best bet for Russia would be to hope the West grows tired and stops the flow of aid. Ukraine's greatest threat is the growing US National Debt issues. USA is eventually going to have to account for its debt.
 
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#81,135
#81,135
volbound1700 said:
Your logic would be working if Russia was actually taking land and holding it. They have failed at that. Ukraine has taken back land or Russia has seized for short time and then loss land.

Most of the major cities are still held by Ukraine: Kiev, Kharkov, Lviv, Odessa, etc. Take a list of Ukraine's major cities. Only Sevastopol, Mariupol, Luhansk, Kherson, and Simferopol are in Russia hands and most of those were either taken in the first month of the all-out Russian invasion or in 2014 in the Annexation of Crimea. No major city has been captured the last 2 years.

View attachment 664895


EDIT: The best bet for Russia would be to hope the West grows tired and stops the flow of aid. Ukraine's greatest threat is the growing US National Debt issues. USA is eventually going to have to account for its debt.
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Russia is moving up the whole line and slowly moving via grind. Nothing complex about this. At current pace, they'll probably reach Kyiv in 2-3 years. Things could impact timing of course, which is why I went from 1-2 decades to less then a decade once they started the FAB drops.

No major city has been captured the last 2 years.
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So.

There really isn't much to talk about, slow grind.

giphy.webp
 
#81,138
#81,138
LSU-SIU said:
Russia is moving up the whole line and slowly moving via grind. Nothing complex about this. At current pace, they'll probably reach Kyiv in 2-3 years. Things could impact timing of course, which is why I went from 1-2 decades to less then a decade once they started the FAB drops.



So.

There really isn't much to talk about, slow grind.

giphy.webp
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The problem with your statement is that it is NOT true. Russia isn't moving into Ukraine. They are stopped or in some cases losing ground right now.

Now I will say that Russia doesn't have to take Kiev to win this war. I think taking Kharkov or even Odessa would get Ukraine to near collapse but Russia seems incapable of doing that.
 
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#81,141
#81,141
The Spy Dossier publishes a photo of the result of a Ukrainian strike on an aviation weapons depot at the Morozovsk airfield, where one Su-34 was destroyed and, probably, two more were damaged.

ooyj5lm1ougd1.jpeg
 
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#81,143
#81,143
RDU VOL#14 said:
If this is even half accurate, or let’s say 20 % accurate, how is this remotely acceptable to the Russians?
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Russia is run by a different system, the leaders do not have to answer to the people for losses. The Russian leadership will accept huge losses to gain even incremental progress, and they have the resource advantage As things stand right now. They do not have an unlimited stockpile of people and machinery however.
 
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#81,144
#81,144
volbound1700 said:
The problem with your statement is that it is NOT true. Russia isn't moving into Ukraine. They are stopped or in some cases losing ground right now.

Now I will say that Russia doesn't have to take Kiev to win this war. I think taking Kharkov or even Odessa would get Ukraine to near collapse but Russia seems incapable of doing that.
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They are (slowly like the last 2 years) but its immaterial, as the war is attrition based i.e. meat and ammo. None of what you are posting has any value because its not about taking large amounts of area, its about depleting the meat and ammo. Same thing I said a few years ago. In some cases, Russia isn't even wanting to take an area quickly to form caldrons, thereby the Ukrainians pour more meat in. You got to get the meat in there to start the stew.

The calls will continue for negotiation just as Finland did last week. Personally, I don't think this really ends until Russia forces them all into Poland.

1*ubAYKeCsNGfy_jwEVyQ2Zw.gif


They are stopped or in some cases losing ground right now.
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Good to know they don't need my money and they can start sending it back. I'm waiting on the check.
 
Last edited:
#81,145
#81,145
Rooster1 said:
Russia is run by a different system, the leaders do not have to answer to the people for losses. The Russian leadership will accept huge losses to gain even incremental progress, and they have the resource advantage As things stand right now. They do not have an unlimited stockpile of people and machinery however.
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I agree, but when you have 500,000 sons not returning from a war that shouldn’t have even been fought, its hard to imagine that there wouldn’t be some kind of upheaval among the citizens.
 
#81,146
#81,146
MontyPython said:
How much longer until Ukraine takes out he Kerch bridge?

With the long range ordinance available to their new F15s, I'd think a significant MALD led barrage is in the offing.
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F15s or F16s? I haven’t paid much attention on this thread, but last I saw they were getting trained on Polish F16s. Anyway, not important, I just was not sure, but wrt one of your other posts about Putin’s recruitment bonus, I wish I could remember the guest on Joe Rogan, but his expertise is in demographics/population trends in Russia and China. He was pretty adamant that if Russia hits 500K casualties that cannot return to battle, they’ll have to abandon the effort. Not sure I trust the figures that keep getting posted, but they have suffered probably far more losses than Putin ever imagined. Pretty close to a 60% alcoholism rate among Russian males (they don’t live that long) and thousands more that beat feet out of the country, he says the lights are going out on Russia. Interesting podcast.
 
#81,148
#81,148
RDU VOL#14 said:
I agree, but when you have 500,000 sons not returning from a war that shouldn’t have even been fought, its hard to imagine that there wouldn’t be some kind of upheaval among the citizens.
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The casualty numbers include dead and wounded. It's generally believed the wounded to KIA ratio is somewhere around 3:1 or 4:1.
 
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#81,149
#81,149
Vol737 said:
F15s or F16s? I haven’t paid much attention on this thread, but last I saw they were getting trained on Polish F16s. Anyway, not important, I just was not sure, but wrt one of your other posts about Putin’s recruitment bonus, I wish I could remember the guest on Joe Rogan, but his expertise is in demographics/population trends in Russia and China. He was pretty adamant that if Russia hits 500K casualties that cannot return to battle, they’ll have to abandon the effort. Not sure I trust the figures that keep getting posted, but they have suffered probably far more losses than Putin ever imagined. Pretty close to a 60% alcoholism rate among Russian males (they don’t live that long) and thousands more that beat feet out of the country, he says the lights are going out on Russia. Interesting podcast.
Click to expand...
F16s. My bad.
 
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