War in Ukraine

#83,176
#83,176
LouderVol said:
No that is what you are making up. I haven't seen any real particulars when it comes to exchanging territory nor Russia's promises.

I am willing to bet this will just go down as number 59,241 you are wrong because you jumped to some inane conclusion in regards to Trump.
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You think Trump is going to have Putin gIve back the 20 % he took?
 
#83,177
#83,177
KB5252 said:
It doesn't matter what we want..... It's what can be negotiated. Negotiations are about leverage and meeting objectives. In the absence of leverage objectives sometimes have to be compromised.

We'll see what comes next. What is acceptable to you? How would you achieve it?
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Russia has to get something for Putin to save face, but Ukraine has to have a guarantee, and an enforceable one, that this doesn't happen again in a few years.
 
#83,178
#83,178
lawgator1 said:
You think Trump is going to have Putin gIve back the 20 % he took?
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I think there is going to be some exchange of land in the peace treaty. I doubt Putin is letting the Ukrainians keep the territory in Russia either.

It will all come down to what concessions both sides are willing to make. And what you believe Putin wanted.
 
#83,179
#83,179
LouderVol said:
I think there is going to be some exchange of land in the peace treaty. I doubt Putin is letting the Ukrainians keep the territory in Russia either.

It will all come down to what concessions both sides are willing to make. And what you believe Putin wanted.
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I guess it comes down to what land Ukraine is willing to concede, in exchange for an enforceable guarantee it does not happen again, and in what form that guarantee takes. So far, we say NATO membership is a non-starter. Some European leaders have offered to place some troops there. That might work -- sort of a rotating commitment from year to year, such that an attack on those troops triggers Article V, even if Ukraine is not technically a member.
 
#83,180
#83,180
lawgator1 said:
I guess it comes down to what land Ukraine is willing to concede, in exchange for an enforceable guarantee it does not happen again, and in what form that guarantee takes. So far, we say NATO membership is a non-starter. Some European leaders have offered to place some troops there. That might work -- sort of a rotating commitment from year to year, such that an attack on those troops triggers Article V, even if Ukraine is not technically a member.
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Trump is trying to make Ukraine more economically tied to US, certainly much more than currently, That is the deterrent to future invasions.
 
#83,181
#83,181
lawgator1 said:
I guess it comes down to what land Ukraine is willing to concede, in exchange for an enforceable guarantee it does not happen again, and in what form that guarantee takes. So far, we say NATO membership is a non-starter. Some European leaders have offered to place some troops there. That might work -- sort of a rotating commitment from year to year, such that an attack on those troops triggers Article V, even if Ukraine is not technically a member.
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I doubt they are going to be able to backdoor an article 5 trap into this.

And I very much doubt most of Europe has the stomach to occupy Ukraine in any meaningful manner for long. Germany and Poland have already shut that down.
 
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#83,182
#83,182
Orangeburst said:
Trump is trying to make Ukraine more economically tied to US, certainly much more than currently, That is the deterrent to future invasions.
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Well, in theory it would be great if both Ukraine and Russia both tethered to us more, as a disincentive to a lot of things. But one wonders how the people living there are going to feel about anything resembling a "Ok, forget the dead and never mind what happened the last three years" type of arrangement.
 
#83,183
#83,183
LouderVol said:
I doubt they are going to be able to backdoor an article 5 trap into this.

And I very much doubt most of Europe has the stomach to occupy Ukraine in any meaningful manner for long. Germany and Poland have already shut that down.
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How else do you guarantee Putin doesn't do it again? This is twice, already, including Crimea.
 
#83,184
#83,184
lawgator1 said:
Well, in theory it would be great if both Ukraine and Russia both tethered to us more, as a disincentive to a lot of things. But one wonders how the people living there are going to feel about anything resembling a "Ok, forget the dead and never mind what happened the last three years" type of arrangement.
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Putin has already changed what they ate fighting for multiple times. The people won't really care, or at least be able to express it in any meaningful way.

The question for Russia will be the oligarchs and if the balance of power changed between them and Putin. Putin has been cracking down on them too so it's not likely an issue there.

Putin will be able to sell whatever concessions they get as a total victory and exactly what they had wanted to achieve, or maybe even more.

Ukraine has suffered more and is relatively more free, so it will be interesting to see what they are willing to tolerate.
 
#83,185
#83,185
LouderVol said:
Putin has already changed what they ate fighting for multiple times. The people won't really care, or at least be able to express it in any meaningful way.

The question for Russia will be the oligarchs and if the balance of power changed between them and Putin. Putin has been cracking down on them too so it's not likely an issue there.

Putin will be able to sell whatever concessions they get as a total victory and exactly what they had wanted to achieve, or maybe even more.

Ukraine has suffered more and is relatively more free, so it will be interesting to see what they are willing to tolerate.
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Yes, I meant what would Ukrainians accept.
 
#83,186
#83,186
Europe will need 400K troops..not enough manpower.. But Russia is really decades away from mounting any threat to NATO already. Why I dont buy the appeasement aspect or he is a threat to NATO.

edit..unless you just need a tripwire force.
 
#83,192
#83,192
lawgator1 said:
Show of hands.

Who thinks Ukraine ought to accept a deal, negotiated without their participation, in which Russia gets to keep the 20 % of Ukrainian territory they currently occupy, and in exchange Russia pinky swears they won't do it again?

Because that's what's coming from Team Trump/Putin.
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You’re just running your typical political propaganda line. “Concern trolling” VN.

Also, xyz. Your inner Dick Cheney is showing.
 
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#83,194
#83,194
KB5252 said:
I wouldn't say well. Any normalization should not come at the cost of standing with traditional allies. However we may feel they have not pulled their weight they are doing so now, for the most part. And we need them.

But hostilities between Russia and the US should not linger, there must be some mutual understanding and diplomacy, however suspect we may be of their motives.
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That is coming to an end.
 
#83,195
#83,195
lawgator1 said:
I guess it comes down to what land Ukraine is willing to concede, in exchange for an enforceable guarantee it does not happen again, and in what form that guarantee takes. So far, we say NATO membership is a non-starter. Some European leaders have offered to place some troops there. That might work -- sort of a rotating commitment from year to year, such that an attack on those troops triggers Article V, even if Ukraine is not technically a member.
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None of that will work, now get back to flipping burgers or stuffing meat in those freezers of yours in the basement.
 
#83,198
#83,198
Offer Putin this option, a complete withdrawal from Ukraine including Crimea in exchange for NATO membership. This guarantees Russian sovereignty and security which Putin has stated as a goal of his war.
 
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#83,199
#83,199
hog88 said:
Offer Putin this option, a complete withdrawal from Ukraine including Crimea in exchange for NATO membership. This guarantees Russian sovereignty and security which Putin has stated as a goal of his war.
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do you think it'd work or just as a ploy to discredit putin?
 
#83,200
#83,200
hog88 said:
Offer Putin this option, a complete withdrawal from Ukraine including Crimea in exchange for NATO membership. This guarantees Russian sovereignty and security which Putin has stated as a goal of his war.
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Would NATO go along?

Would Russia value that enough to give up what they have?

NATO is on it's way down. It already has allies in emerging markets. That's the short game isn't it?
 
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