War in Ukraine

[DC_Vol]

Precisely. Germany would have to cut off 60% of its gas for heating homes in the middle of winter.

As an aside, Germany also just announced that it was accelerating the construction of 2 LPG terminals, so that it can receive gas from sources other than its Russian pipeline.

How stupid of Germany entangling their energy their energy needs with Russia. This should be a lesson for the US. Becoming energy independent (again) should be a top NS priority.

 

[OHvol40]

The comparison I wish to make is only that initial appraisals of Russian military prowess based on early performance should never be extrapolated into the ultimate outcome of the conflict. Stalingrad only happened because Hitler got overconfident based on poor Soviet performance early on.
Put in Volnation terms, Russia is a LOUSY first half team, but they have the depth to crush you late in the Game.

I can’t refute this. I wonder how their financial collapse and domestic indifference might affect the “depth” in this case though.

 

[05_never_again]

Did that change? If my memory is correct they were initially not removed from SWIFT when the first sanctions were listed. Then they said they would remove some but not all.

On Saturday they said they were removing Sberbank and VTB (perhaps others, but not sure) from SWIFT and also placed sanctions on their central bank, which cut them off from access to USD. So yes, they removed "select banks" from SWIFT, but Sberbank and VTB are #1 and #2. Sure, they have reserves, but essentially nobody will do business with them, so they can't convert it into anything. It's wild that even Switzerland got in on the act - I didn't see that coming.

Sberbank is Russia's largest bank and it is trading like it's a big fat zero. The financial market reaction to all of this seems to be "They're effed even if they can still sell oil/gas."

 

[Septic]

How stupid of Germany entangling their energy their energy needs with Russia. This should be a lesson for the US. Becoming energy independent (again) should be a top NS priority.

No doubt about this. But energy is a complicated thing, just like we buy all of our crap from China (because it's cheap) western Europe has done the same thing with Russia and oil; effectively financing the resurgence of the 'next' Soviet Union and possibly WW3 without even realizing it.

It's easy to say no, until you have to heat your home or fill your car up - then everybody wants the cheapest stuff they can find. We're our own worst enemy.

 

[Hunerwadel]

That doesn’t change anything. If he uses them, his country will be obliterated.

It may not matter to a madman. Go back and read the Fiona Hill interview. Putin may have one foot in the twilight zone. One weakness of MAD is that you cannot always predict what an individual might do or why.

 

[OrangeTsar]

I am surprised as anyone at how poorly the Russian military is performing. It is a clown show of Pruitt level ineptitude.
But here is the central question….barring an internal revolt in which the Russian mob/military/State Security forces Putin out to avoid further embarrassment, does ANYONE see a realistic outcome in which Ukraine „wins“? The Russian powers that be will not allow an independent Ukraine to survive. They will continue the conflict openly or underground until they have a puppet regime in Kyiv. It sucks, but that is reality. Anything else fuses Russia to lose face and that cannot happen in their eyes

 

[Septic]

On Saturday they said they were removing Sberbank and VTB (perhaps others, but not sure) from SWIFT and also placed sanctions on their central bank, which cut them off from access to USD. So yes, they removed "select banks" from SWIFT, but Sberbank and VTB are #1 and #2. Sure, they have reserves, but essentially nobody will do business with them, so they can't convert it into anything. It's wild that even Switzerland got in on the act - I didn't see that coming.

Sberbank is Russia's largest bank and it is trading like it's a big fat zero. The financial market reaction to all of this seems to be "They're effed even if they can still sell oil/gas."

You know ya dun effed up when the Swiss start flicking boogers.

 

[05_never_again]

It may not matter to a madman. Go back and read the Fiona Hill interview. Putin may have one foot in the twilight zone. The one weakness of MAD is that you cannot predict what an individual might do or why.

Perhaps it is wishful thinking, but Putin doesn't strike me as suicidal. He doesn't seem to have the mental makeup of a kamikaze pilot or suicide bomber. He's got billions of dollars stashed away I'm sure he'd like to enjoy in his twilight years and is probably looking for a way to save face and get out of this.

 

[Septic]

I am surprised as anyone at how poorly the Russian military is performing. It is a clown show of Pruitt level ineptitude.
But here is the central question….barring an internal revolt in which the Russian mob/military/State Security forces Putin out to avoid further embarrassment, does ANYONE see a realistic outcome in which Ukraine „wins“? The Russian powers that be will not allow an independent Ukraine to survive. They will continue the conflict openly or underground until they have a puppet regime in Kyiv. It sucks, but that is reality. Anything else fuses Russia to lose face and that cannot happen in their eyes

Russia will prevail with a quantity over quality playbook, most of the armor that Russia is trotting out looks or seems to be older than the kids that are getting killed in them.

 

[volinbham]

No doubt about this. But energy is a complicated thing, just like we buy all of our crap from China (because it's cheap) western Europe has done the same thing with Russia and oil; effectively financing the resurgence of the 'next' Soviet Union and possibly WW3 without even realizing it.

It's easy to say no, until you have to heat your home or fill your car up - then everybody wants the cheapest stuff they can find. We're our own worst enemy.

mostly true but we were pursuing a strategy that not only kept us mostly independent but also allowed Europe to reduce their dependence on Russia. that strategy got a major 180 just over a year ago.

want to reduce the Russian's power? follow the previous energy strategy - it could be done while still focusing on the transition to non-fossil fuels.

 

[DC_Vol]

No doubt about this. But energy is a complicated thing, just like we buy all of our crap from China (because it's cheap) western Europe has done the same thing with Russia and oil; effectively financing the resurgence of the 'next' Soviet Union and possibly WW3 without even realizing it.

It's easy to say no, until you have to heat your home or fill your car up - then everybody wants the cheapest stuff they can find. We're our own worst enemy.

I agree with this. The China chochkies parallel is perfect.

 

[85SugarVol]

I wouldn't trust anything she has to say, she's discredited herself by going political.

I am aware of the baggage. Eyes wide open when reading it.

I was interested in what she had to say about Putin & Russia specifically.

 

[volinbham]

I am surprised as anyone at how poorly the Russian military is performing. It is a clown show of Pruitt level ineptitude.
But here is the central question….barring an internal revolt in which the Russian mob/military/State Security forces Putin out to avoid further embarrassment, does ANYONE see a realistic outcome in which Ukraine „wins“? The Russian powers that be will not allow an independent Ukraine to survive. They will continue the conflict openly or underground until they have a puppet regime in Kyiv. It sucks, but that is reality. Anything else fuses Russia to lose face and that cannot happen in their eyes

Without knowing Putin's strategy it's hard to know how well or poorly he's performing. It seems he underestimated the resistance to a "bloodless" takeover and perhaps how sanction aggressive NATO would get. That said, he may have not intended to release the Kraken unless needed and he now appears to be physically positioned to do so if he needs to. IOW - I don't know that he planned to physically take Ukraine by now.

Clearly Ukraine's early wins increase the Ukrainian resolve.

 

[Orangeburst]

mostly true but we were pursuing a strategy that not only kept us mostly independent but also allowed Europe to reduce their dependence on Russia. that strategy got a major 180 just over a year ago.

want to reduce the Russian's power? follow the previous energy strategy - it could be done while still focusing on the transition to non-fossil fuels.

Supply and demand
this $100 barrel oil just fuels his campaign

 

[hog88]

Do you believe other NATO leaders didn't get a say so in this?

I ask because generally, It's been fascinating to see some folks want to blame and discredit the U.S. for the "bad" and give all of the credit to the European leaders when the sanctions turned out to have much more bite than what was initially mocked.

I think certain European leaders are involved in the decision making but again it's my belief that they including us are in cahoots with Putin. Endgame? Not clear on that except to further subjugate the citizenry by using fear. Covid has about played out so threat of nuclear war is next.

 

[volinbham]

I agree with this. The China chochkies parallel is perfect.

worse than the chotchkies is the critical products like pharmaceuticals and other medical supplies

 

[Orangeburst]

I think certain European leaders are involved in the decision making but again it's my belief that they including us are in cahoots with Putin. Endgame? Not clear on that except to further subjugate the citizenry by using fear. Covid has about played out so threat of nuclear war is next.

Last thing I would do is join the EU

 

[hog88]

Heh. A focused EMP blast... just like in the movies, eh.

That would take a near ground burst to limit damage to such a small area.

 

[Septic]

I agree with this. The China chochkies parallel is perfect.

Right? If you think about it - we do the same thing with China but instead of oil, we get 90% of the crap that fills up Walmart. If that stuff had to be produced in the U.S., it'd cost 50%+ more - people would lose their minds stop buying it, bitch about the loss of jobs etc. So we buy cheap crap and spend $780b annually to point guns at them. We do exactly the same thing we're mocking the Europeans for doing with Russia. It's dumb that we do it, but we'll keep doing it.

 

[Vol423]

Precisely. Germany would have to cut off 60% of its gas for heating homes in the middle of winter.

Luckily, this shouldn't be any problem at all since the liberals have been pounding the table for the last 20 years about how hot the earth is getting.

 

[FLVOL_79]

I will gladly accept any female Ukrainian refugee between the ages of 18-24 who weighs less than 140 pounds.




No gingers.

 

[Septic]

I think certain European leaders are involved in the decision making but again it's my belief that they including us are in cahoots with Putin. Endgame? Not clear on that except to further subjugate the citizenry by using fear. Covid has about played out so threat of nuclear war is next.

I'd be far more concerned with him using a tactical nuke an ICBM. Pooty's already demonstrated a willingness to use nasty stuff in urban areas without regard to who gets caught in the collateral damage.

He's a thug in a suit and he's not going anywhere until his own people throw him out.

 

[05_never_again]

Right? If you think about it - we do the same thing with China but instead of oil, we get 90% of the crap that fills up Walmart. If that stuff had to be produced in the U.S., it'd cost 50%+ more - people would lose their minds stop buying it, bitch about the loss of jobs etc. So we buy cheap crap and spend $780b annually to point guns at them. We do exactly the same thing we're mocking the Europeans for doing with Russia. It's dumb that we do it, but we'll keep doing it.

At least in the case of China, for the most part we have them make our cheap plastic crap instead of supply us with an inordinately large portion of something vital like energy. There are a couple things they make for us that they shouldn't be (like certain pharma and medical supplies) but we could bring that production back either here or to a friendly (like Mexico) pretty quickly.

 

[Paper_Towel]

My guess would be to keep the situation from further escalating beyond Ukraine.

I mean, if fighter jets and ground attack craft were to just so happen go up for sale on eBay motors Poland, Ukraine can place a good bid on for them.

 

[Velo Vol]

No doubt about this. But energy is a complicated thing, just like we buy all of our crap from China (because it's cheap) western Europe has done the same thing with Russia and oil; effectively financing the resurgence of the 'next' Soviet Union and possibly WW3 without even realizing it.

The truly dumb part was decommissioning its nuclear power plants.