I have to admit, I've known how this is going to go for the Ukraine. Putin is going to outnumber and out-material Ukraine, but that has't stopped my admiration for the Ukrainian people. But I have started to feel a great deal of sadness over what will happen to them now.
Russia loses long term. The population is going to have to be subdued through a large occupying army. Russia can't afford that. We broke them financially once, we can do it again and have a pretty good start going right now. His biggest mistake was motivating Europe to get off Russian natural gas and oil. His main customer is going to be China and that's a very uncomfortable relationship.
More than that, the anger and hatred towards the Russians will become part of the Ukrainian cultural history. Maybe this century, maybe not, but that history will motivate those people to recapture their freedom. Remember, they are Slavs and it is in their DNA to hold grudges for a very long time.
Our biggest long-term issue is there's a nutcase with control of Russia's nukes and there's no internal barriers to him using them.
For now, we should be putting so many missiles and tanks on Taiwan that it almost sinks. Time to show Xi that there's a big price for backing Putin (although the quality of support he actually gave Putin probably isn't making Putin very happy). Make it so any attempt to invade would result in 20,000 PRC soldiers at the bottom of the Formosa straits.