War in Ukraine

[MontyPython]

If the US could have enforced a no-fly zone, it would have been done already.

This is fun and games to you, but this isn't a time where you start bluffing and stirring the pot.

"Enforcement".

Define that.

 

[USF grad in TN]

If I had to venture a guess, I'd say none of them are operational or barely operational. For 30 freaking years Russia hasn't sent them a spare part. They might as well be F-4's from the desert.

Just guessing, but I think someone in NATO could reverse-engineer most of those parts.
I think I read that about 80% of them were operational.

 

[Franklin Pierce]

These are the companies still doing business in Russia

A Yale University professor has compiled a list of companies that are still doing business in Russia even as many firms head for the exits after Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, who heads the nonprofit Chief Executive Leadership Institute at Yale, put together the list, which has now grown to 280 western companies that have scaled back their ties to Russia — along with those that remain.

The companies that are not boycotting Russia

 

[Weezer]

If the US could have enforced a no-fly zone, it would have been done already.

This is fun and games to you, but this isn't a time where you start bluffing and stirring the pot.

?

I don't think it's a question as to IF the U.S./NATO could enforce a no-fly zone. They could. But to do so is to go to war with Russia. That doesn't end well for anyone.

 

[lawgator1]

I disagree , he could very easily call Ukraine a revolt or uprising since he doesn’t recognize them and start leveling the cities to stop the revolt . Then NATO will either be forced to sit and watch or stop him . He doesn’t have a way out of this to save face and provocation like a NATO no fly zone would provide him with one . ( IMO)

I had a meeting the other day involving a gentleman who was formerly a negotiator with NATO. As an aside I asked him whether he thought any of the talks which were at the time upcoming would be meaningful. He said absolutely not and explained to me the principle of "mutually hurting stalemate." I looked it up and sure enough its a real thing.

The principle is that there won't be meaningful negotiation until the aggressor, Putin, is no longer achieving anything (or until it is so far outweighed by the cost that he is really net losing) and both sides are suffering losses they cannot accept. We know Ukraine is already there, but Putin is not. He is going to have to be at real risk of losing power domestically, or effectively stopped in his tracks in the Ukraine that the losses are causing him such long term risk that he has to find the off ramp.

For now, Putin is winning enough that he is not in stalemate. That has to happen before a negotiated solution is reached. The West and Ukraine need to find ways to first stop the advance of Russian forces, to inflict painful casualties, and then the off ramp.

Anyway, thought his take, with his experience, was interesting enough to share. I think we all instinctively know it, but its notable to me that it has an academic recognition.

 

[kiddiedoc]

Coca-Cola follows McDonald’s, Starbucks in Suspending Business in Russia

Wait, why are we trying to help the Russians?

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

It really doesn't make sense.
Many claim that one of the things that made Trump effective was the fact that he was crazy enough to just maybe use nukes.
The assumption being that those leaders did not step out of line because they wished to avoid nuclear conflict.
Now they are saying that we can't keep those same leaders from stepping out of line because they might resort to nuclear conflict.

It can't be both.

You actually make a good point here. That is why I said that the story about Trump threatening to nuke Moscow is BS.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll found that 74% of Americans across the political spectrum support a no-fly zone.

Seems you're in a minority.

Also, question: Do you think it was wrong that FDR declared war on Germany in 1941?

Who cares about polling?

 

[luthervol]

Virtue signaling at its finest.

Stupidity at its finest.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

this is a fluid situation

A continuum

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

What I don't understand is Ukraine still has jets and I haven't heard of them using them.

Maybe there is a reason.

Maybe there is already a no-fly zone established over there...

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

I agree in principle. The problem is that Ukraine only gave up its inherited Nuke arsenal in response to Clinton’s promise to protect (not militarily necessarily) Ukraine’s territorial integrity. We sort of have hung them out to dry after they trusted us. Not that we really could do more right now without risking a dangerous escalation; but it doesn’t look good for the US’s trustworthiness

We left Americans and Afghans out to dry over 6 months ago when we left them to the Taliban. That is just what we are known for. If we don't give a damn about Americans, you know Ukraine doesn't have a chance.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Ras has assured me that the Russians have kept on critical infrastructure for the Ukrainians.

Our first example of civil infrastructure interruptions. It took a week and a half to find one. You've made your point.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

In Fairness to Bill, he was the last national Democrat to actually at least make an attempt to be a moderate and govern from the center. After him, the radical left took over the remains of what was once a proud and patriotic party. He was the last adult in the room, even if flawed.

He was forced to govern from the center after 1994 and then after Lewinsky.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

Coca-Cola follows McDonald’s, Starbucks in Suspending Business in Russia

They are tightening the screws on Russia now.

 

[PEPPERJAX]

They are tightening the screws on Russia now.

It is tough to do without $7.00 cups of coffee.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

True. But we called and raised.

Plus they bombed Pearl Harbor so they deserved it.

The Germans bombed Pearl Harbor?

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

I may go to McDonald's for dinner tonight - it would be the first time in ages.

You're going to McDonald's to show your support for Ukraine?

Will Victoria Nuland be in Maidan Square passing out Big Macs?

 

[headhunter15]

In Fairness to Bill, he was the last national Democrat to actually at least make an attempt to be a moderate and govern from the center. After him, the radical left took over the remains of what was once a proud and patriotic party. He was the last adult in the room, even if flawed.

Agreed.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

I wonder if McDonalds in Russia had working ice cream machines? Ours sure don’t

They just serve vodka, not ice cream.

 

[evillawyer]

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

How does that contradict the post at all?

Oh, and if Poland really didn’t want any part of it, they wouldn’t be sending the planes.

They border Ukraine. Just send them over the border. It really isn't that hard to grasp.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

They should just call a default. That will show Russia!!!

 

[luthervol]

You're going to McDonald's to show your support for Ukraine?

Will Victoria Nuland be in Maidan Square passing out Big Macs?

It's a little like when you refuse to purchase something from a company whose decisions or policies you disagree with.
But the opposite.

Fear not though, the wife wants to go to the neighborhood meat and 3 tonight; they have meatloaf on Tuesdays, and it's fantastic.

 

[Rasputin_Vol]

I had a meeting the other day involving a gentleman who was formerly a negotiator with NATO. As an aside I asked him whether he thought any of the talks which were at the time upcoming would be meaningful. He said absolutely not and explained to me the principle of "mutually hurting stalemate." I looked it up and sure enough its a real thing.

The principle is that there won't be meaningful negotiation until the aggressor, Putin, is no longer achieving anything (or until it is so far outweighed by the cost that he is really net losing) and both sides are suffering losses they cannot accept. We know Ukraine is already there, but Putin is not. He is going to have to be at real risk of losing power domestically, or effectively stopped in his tracks in the Ukraine that the losses are causing him such long term risk that he has to find the off ramp.

For now, Putin is winning enough that he is not in stalemate. That has to happen before a negotiated solution is reached. The West and Ukraine need to find ways to first stop the advance of Russian forces, to inflict painful casualties, and then the off ramp.

Anyway, thought his take, with his experience, was interesting enough to share. I think we all instinctively know it, but its notable to me that it has an academic recognition.

So NATO will likely advise Ukraine to drag this out in other words...