Gandalf
The Orange/White Wizard
- Joined
- Dec 7, 2012
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Agree. Unless you count having to destroy a place to save it for yourself and alienating all the inhabitants for decades, Russia is definitely not winning. I can't see taking and holding a destroyed land full of people who would slit your throat at any opportunity as winning. It would be a bit like winning against Germany after WW1, and what that win brought next - the difference being that of occupation, and don't bet Russian occupation of Ukraine wouldn't be a lot like French occupation of Vietnam. Uneasy lies the crown - unless Russia were to go the genocide route.
They are not going to occupy it - cant imagine Putin would be so stupid. They will appoint some friendly gov and then back off. As long as the new gov is basically hostile to NATO troops and CIA funded groups then Russia has its strategic buffer zone. I am sure he would like to straight up take over but they simply dont have the resources for that. Pointless getting shot at all the time unless you fully subjugate and that just does not meet his objectives.
Meanwhile, China will swoop in to offer great terms on their belt and road initiative and own it when Ukraine defaults.