Win and in

#53
#53
CBR07 said:
Nobody will make me believe if Alabama was sitting where Tennessee is sitting, that there wouldn’t be any doubt they get in. If Alabama would’ve won vs LSU, They would be 4 right now and nobody would jump them , nobody
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Agree, if Bama would have beat LSU, TCU would not be 4 right now and I think we would have still been in the top 4.
 
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#54
#54
VolCalls said:
Everyone relax. Let’s be rational about this.

1) TCU deserves to be in right now - they’re 10-0 in a Power 5 league with wins over five ranked teams and will probably be 12-0 heading into the Big 12 title game. If they go 13-0 they’re a lock. If they lose the title game, they’re likely out. A #3 seed is their ceiling.

2) I’m not worried about the Pac 12 because USC won’t beat both UCLA and Notre Dame and Oregon, two of whom are pissed off coming off of losses, and UCLA doesn’t, and won’t, have the strength of schedule or record. Heck, they were ranked #12 and will take a tumble after last night’s bad loss at home, so even if they win out from here and finish 12-1 they aren’t going to jump 12-14 places in the next three weeks to make the top four.

3) Clemson still has a shot if they win out, depending on what else happens. A win over a red-hot UNC would help their cause, but they would still need chaos elsewhere due to the weakness of the ACC.

4) Mich/Ohio State loser would also need help due to SOS and SOR. If that game is a nail-biter, there will be a discussion - especially if OSU loses. Either way, one of those two is winning the Big Ten.

5) We all know Georgia needs to beat LSU, just so the CFP doesn’t need to have another discussion. Still, our head-to-head convincing win would be the deciding factor, IMO.

6) The only scenario where I will sweat is if TCU goes 13-0, USC and Clemson win out, Mich/OSU is a one possession game, and LSU beats Georgia. I think the odds of all of these happening are less than 5%, mainly due to the last one.

We have the #2 SOS, the #2 SOR, our only loss is at #1, and we play in the most powerful league in America, which has gotten two teams in multiple times before. No need to get worked up because our opinions don’t matter anyway!

Win these last two and we’re in. Period.
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Tcu deserves nothing but our loathing and disrespect. Are you a Vols fan or a closeted TCU fan? Down with the TCU pretenders! Long live the Vols!
 
#55
#55
volfan102455 said:
Agree, if Bama would have beat LSU, TCU would not be 4 right now and I think we would have still been in the top 4.
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Interesting … that’s thinking outside the box. And if that’s the case, we got what we wanted but didn’t get what we “wanted” all at the same time. We will all be nuts before this is settled … 😆
 
#57
#57
loservol said:
Tcu deserves nothing but our loathing and disrespect. Are you a Vols fan or a closeted TCU fan? Down with the TCU pretenders! Long live the Vols!
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Easy … the way this season is playing out, TCU may end up being our “friend” before this is over.
 
#58
#58
Andrew8210 said:
Tennessee needs Georgia to beat LSU. If LSU beats Georgia, both those teams are in and Tennessee is out. If Georgia beats LSU, then Tennessee is in as long as they win out.
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I agree with this, but if USC wins out and wins their conference title, they will be on a great run beating 4 ranked opponents in a row and the committee will have to debate USC vs UT (assuming TCU wins out). Am there will always be the 1 loss big 10 team sitting there in that mix too.
 
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#60
#60
To be on the safe side, I would feel more comfortable with Ohio St beating Michigan by 20+
 
#61
#61
Andrew8210 said:
Tennessee needs Georgia to beat LSU. If LSU beats Georgia, both those teams are in and Tennessee is out. If Georgia beats LSU, then Tennessee is in as long as they win out.
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Wrong if LSU beats UGA, TN is still above a 2 loss LSU team that they manhandled on the road.

But it makes it harder for TN to get in as the strength of opponents dips a small bit. It looks better if our only loss is to an undefeated team.
 
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#62
#62
I'll say this as plainly as I can: LSU, with two losses, will not get into the playoffs.

I don't care if they win out (against two weak opponents) and then torch Georgia in Atlanta. They still don't get into the playoffs. All they can do, under that extremely unlikely scenario, is maybe hurt Georgia's positioning.

They ain't getting in. Period. Two-loss teams don't make the playoffs when there are undefeated and one-loss teams from Power 5 conferences available.

So...set LSU aside. Put them out of your mind. Ain't happening.

~ ~ ~

And once you do that, you'll probably acknowledge that LSU isn't beating Georgia, anyway. The Bulldogs, at their weakest, we can beat. But LSU can't. Their top end isn't good enough. They simply don't have the ability to stay in that game for 60 minutes.

~ ~ ~

So the four playoff spots come down to (1) UGa, (2) winner of OSU-Mich, (3) our Vols, and (4) TCU (if they win out).

That last note is still an open question. TCU made it (barely) over a big hurdle in their path yesterday. It is not the last hurdle, though. Two more ahead: Baylor, and (probably) Kansas State in the B12 CG. Chance TCU loses one of those two games is pretty high.

Is USCw any kind of threat? Not to us, no. And not to TCU if they should win out. Southern Cal is only a threat to the loser of OSU-Michigan. Because that team will be lurking around the #5 or #6 spot, hoping to take TCU's place. Just like USCw will be (if they don't lose to UCLA or Notre Dame, and then don't lose in the PAC CG).

~ ~ ~

We're in a very good spot, all the crying and gnashing of teeth be damned.

Go Vols!
 
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#63
#63
Is there still a big 12 championship game? A KSU/TCU rematch might be the only way TCU loses. TCU won the 1st game by 10 points.
 
#64
#64
volfanhill said:
You have to be stupid to think otherwise. Loser of UM and OSU don't have the strength to pass
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USC will likely get in because their schedule is backloaded. And DO NOT underestimate the fact that Big Ten now wants usc to succeed. Michigans AD is on the committee. Now do you understand why it’s not as simple as winning?

Maybe you don’t remember 2014 when TCU went from 3rd to 5th without losing. That’s how Ohio St got into it in the first place. The committee will not take both “outsiders” TCU and Tennessee in the same year.
 
#65
#65
vols 30 said:
To be on the safe side, I would feel more comfortable with Ohio St beating Michigan by 20+
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Maybe so but I think Mich is the stronger team. Hopefully if they do win, the committee will give OhSt an extra ding for losing at home, not to mention the cupcake schedules Mich and OhSt have this year.
 
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#66
#66
ThreatLevelOrange said:
USC will likely get in because their schedule is backloaded. And DO NOT underestimate the fact that Big Ten now wants usc to succeed. Michigans AD is on the committee. Now do you understand why it’s not as simple as winning?

Maybe you don’t remember when TCU went from 3rd to 5th without losing. That’s how Ohio St got into it in the first place. The committee will not take “outsiders” TCU and Tennessee in the same year.
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uscWest is by far the weakest top 15 team. They will lose to ND, they will lose to UCLA. In a championship game Oregon or Utah would spank them hard.
 
#68
#68
HuntlandVolinColo said:
uscWest is by far the weakest top 15 team. They will lose to ND, they will lose to UCLA. In a championship game Oregon or Utah would spank them hard.
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I hope you’re right. But they have the chance to win their way in. Don’t forget the Big Ten wants the Ohio St/Michigan loser OR USC to get it. It’s “their turn” to get 2 teams in. Tennessee is a feel good story, but our fan base isn’t as large or as powerful as those 3. TCU losing would help a lot.
 
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#71
#71
hUTch2002 said:
Outside of Ohio State’s 2014 run, which they only made because their QB got hurt, they’ve been pretty bad in the playoff.
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But tOSU has consistently been in the hunt year after year.

What do you think lifted Bama in when they had some questionable losses? Consistency.

That's not on our side but it's especially there for Ohio State and Clemson and less so, but still with Michigan.

TCU and UT are the newcomers to the party and most likely to get screwed.
 
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#72
#72
vols 30 said:
Is there still a big 12 championship game? A KSU/TCU rematch might be the only way TCU loses. TCU won the 1st game by 10 points.
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TCU has a chance to lose every week. They are not blowing out teams. If Texas had any resemblance of a coherent offense last night, they win by 2-3 scores. TCU isn't winning big vs the better teams of their schedule and they aren't winning big vs the worst teams of their schedule.
 
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#74
#74
JoAllan said:
I fairly sure most folks are so concerned and there is all the clamoring because the only way to win a NC is to be in the playoff………and Tennessee looks to be SO close. Just got to get in.

However if other fans are ever reading………if somehow Tennessee is left out……..you better hope your team in not playing them in a bowl. Tennessee will be pizzed, Tennessee is very good and they will embarrass your team. I don’t care who they are especially if their not one of the top 4 teams. Expect to get Missouri‘ed!!

never fear……..Tennessee gets in though.
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Don't agree. It's the playoff or bust anymore, the other bowls are in reality glorified exhibitions. If I'm a player with serious NFL talent, I'm done when the regular season or conference championship is over unless we make the playoff.

I can see Hooker playing because he's that kind of guy, but if he has a first or second day draft grade I'd be advising him to skip the bowl and start preparing for the combine. Risking an injury in what amounts to an exhibition is borderline insane. I would put Hyatt and Tillman in the same category.

I hate having that viewpoint, but there's just too much money at stake anymore, and anyone should respect if someone doesn't want to put their future at risk for what is essentially a meaningless game in the big picture.

Having said all that, it's going to be moot anyway when UT gets the #3 seed.
 
#75
#75
JoAllan said:
And it only gets worse

12 a coming

I remember seemed like every bowl game meant something back in the day. I’m down for change but really ho many times did the BCS get it wrong? Maybe once? How many times has this 4 team playoff gotten it wrong? Again maybe once.

Even back before the BCS it was pretty clear most every year. Not every time but most times.
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Totally agree. Four is more than enough to determine a winner, and the intrigue and debate afterward is good for the sport, as it keeps it in the news.

I am one who wished they had just kept the BCS. One game for all the marbles, and the other bowl games aren't as worthless as they've become, and will be more so with 12.
 
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