2014 Season Prediction

[JCHateSteve]

Dead on dude! Glad to see some realistic fans.

I understand everyone wants their beloved Vols back sooner rather than later but having realistic expectation is just going to cause more flux in the coaching staff and have us starting over again in 2 years. Though I must admit I will be pretty pissed if we miss a bowl game again. Here is hoping for a lite year on injuries and that this recent trouble with law blows over. I doubt the UF game is a win without AJ.

 

[skasper06]

I could see all of this as possible. But I think the Ole Miss and Mizzou game could go either way. We shall see...

 

[RileyThaBasedGod]

I like this thread man. Predictions are always fun especially since we aint been having very good years lately. What Im thinkin is that we got 3 auto wins (Ark St, Kentucky and Chatt) and 2 games I expec us to lose (that red team and OU). as for the rest of em, i think the order of us having the best chance of winning first is...

Utah St
Vandy
-------(I expec us to get these but i was jus being safe)
Ole Miss
Mizzou
Florida
USCjr
UGA
-------(I say we get 1-2 of these games, prolly Ole Miss and Mizzou)

I would say we would beat Fla but I jus think they are in our heads or something man, idk. Hope i'm wrong tho.
And since we got UGA on the road its gonna be tough, plus they got Gurshell back.
And ya know Spurrier goin be pissed about us knockin them out of a BCS bowl (maybe the NC) last year and we got to go to William Brice.

7-5 or 6-6, leanin towards 7-5 instead of 6-6 cause of Butch is a G and Riley can toss it. GBO

 

[JCHateSteve]

I like this thread man. Predictions are always fun especially since we aint been having very good years lately. What Im thinkin is that we got 3 auto wins (Ark St, Kentucky and Chatt) and 2 games I expec us to lose (that red team and OU). as for the rest of em, i think the order of us having the best chance of winning first is...

Utah St
Vandy
-------(I expec us to get these but i was jus being safe)
Ole Miss
Mizzou
Florida
USCjr
UGA
-------(I say we get 1-2 of these games, prolly Ole Miss and Mizzou)

I would say we would beat Fla but I jus think they are in our heads or something man, idk. Hope i'm wrong tho.
And since we got UGA on the road its gonna be tough, plus they got Gurshell back.
And ya know Spurrier goin be pissed about us knockin them out of a BCS bowl (maybe the NC) last year and we got to go to William Brice.

7-5 or 6-6, leanin towards 7-5 instead of 6-6 cause of Butch is a G and Riley can toss it. GBO

Normally I would agree on UF but I think this is the year. They have the look of a team in a downward spiral much like we were a while back. They may turn it around and prove me wrong but they had great talent last year and won fewer games than us. That has got to be a coaching issue.

 

[UT_Tix79]

Normally I would agree on UF but I think this is the year. They have the look of a team in a downward spiral much like we were a while back. They may turn it around and prove me wrong but they had great talent last year and won fewer games than us. That has got to be a coaching issue.

The thing that scares me about Florida is everyone is looking past them. They were absolutely demolished with injuries last year, finished 4-8, and still beat us with their 3rd string QB.

I won't predict a win against them until 2015

 

[ProfessorD]

Utah st W
Arkansas st W
Oklahoma L
Georgia L
Florida W
Chat W
Ole miss W
Bammer L
South Car L
Mizzou W
Kentucky W
Vandy W
This is 8-4. I could see an upset of georgia or sc that could get us to 9-3 or a loss to miss or florida or mizzou that could put us at 7-5. Worse case 6-6 and make a bowl game. Best case 9-3. Can't wait till next season planning on making at least 3 games this year plus the o&w.

GBO!

 

[daj2576]

10 - 2 = A Miracle

9 - 3 = The Ceiling...and a Surprise. May get us into the SECCG

8 - 4 = A Possibility with the right Breaks.

7 - 5 = Realistic expectations. After-all this is the SEC

6 - 6 = Breaks did not go our way.

Any record below this is not on the agenda but the Negavols will have a field day with it.....

I believe the EEs are going to have a huge impact. I also believe that the rest of the recruiting class will roll into Knoxville ready to prove their worth and get down to business. This does not mean that they will be SEC ready but it does bring a different element into the picture.

Barring injuries we could roll big time the last half of season and go 5-1. The schedule is favorable on the front half of the season. A lot of factors as to how it plays out. We have consistently been gaining momentum since the arrival of CBJ and staff. It has been an upward steady slow climb out of the hole and it has been nothing but forward progress with only few minor setbacks.

8-4

I see us winning at least one of Bama/Florida/UGA and losing at least one of Ole Miss/ Mizzou/ SCAR.

 

[JCHateSteve]

The thing that scares me about Florida is everyone is looking past them. They were absolutely demolished with injuries last year, finished 4-8, and still beat us with their 3rd string QB.

I won't predict a win against them until 2015

I see the opposite, people are taking about how they always find a way to beat us. They were bad last year and under achieved the year before. From what I have seen from them Muschamp he's not their guy. I'm not saying its a sure win ,far from it. But I doubt we will have a better chance next year in the swamp.

 

[GBO97]

Since 2008

 

[Grey_pilgrim]

There's only "Kiffin drama" with UT fans. There isn't anyone on the football team or coaching staff that's still around from when Kiffin was here. The last time I checked, fans don't play or coach.

While I do agree to some extent, usually a player is a fan of the team they play on and I do think the players will have a little extra fire for that game. Probably won't amount to much of a difference in the outcome of the game but who knows.

 

[LKGates]

#25
Florida State, Alabama top Way-Too-Early college football Top 25 - College Football - Martin Rickman - SI.com

 

[MFL]

#25
Florida State, Alabama top Way-Too-Early college football Top 25 - College Football - Martin Rickman - SI.com

Tennessee's first game a top 25 opponent. That should paint the picture for the season.

 

[xpsyclonex2002]

This season is about one thing and one thing only. The QB. Either one of ours becomes the stud we were told they are, or we have the exact same season as last year. I think it's that simple. If our offense can stay on the field for more than 3 and out, then our defense doesn't have the constant pressure on them to save the game.

 

[Catbone]

8-4

I see us winning at least one of Bama/Florida/UGA and losing at least one of Ole Miss/ Mizzou/ SCAR.

Daj, this only takes in consideration of the 2014 class correct? Have you tried combining perhaps the past 3 years classes (maybe 2012,2013, and 2014) and getting an average from those teams recruiting score? Sorry if already asked

 

[SPRINGHILLVOL]

2014 season dependent on how good is starting quarterback, how fast the new class comes together, how the offensive line comes together. great chance to have huge improvement in quarterback, running back, tight end, linebackers, secondary. new kicker looks very promising.. team very, very young. I think the key is the development of Riley Ferguson...last season we played our 4th string quarterback after injuries to Worley, Peterman, and Ferguson. I think season at best goes 7-5...likely 6-6..the big season is 2015!!!! Should really come together...

 

[Doyle Hargraves]

I'm going with a wishful thinking 6-6.
New OL, returning the same four QBs and still no real clue if any of them can get the job done, then add a defense that will rely heavily on youth.
Yep, 6-6 seems pretty optimistic to me.

 

[Paukotajs]

7-5. As long as we beat FL though, I will consider it a huge success. No matter who the 5 losses are to.

 

[Catbone]

6-6 is what we will be. I'll bet on it.

 

[CA_Vol]

After one hell of a signing day cranked out by Butch Jones and company, things are looking up, so on to how 2014 will play out.

8/30 (Utah State)W- Matt Wells Aggies are no slouch, certainly a team on a mission as of late and will bring an interesting match-up to Neyland to kick off UT Football 2014. Tennessee finds their identity and wins by a couple of touchdowns.

9/6 (Arkansas State)W-One of those out of conference crush games, Tennessee rolls big with a lot of newcomers seeing some PT.

9/13 (@Oklahoma)L-As much as we would all love to see a win here, The Sooners are back in that damn good state of mind. Trevor Knight leads an explosive offense and they will be playoff contenders. It will be closer than the experts think, I see a 10 point difference.

9/27 (@UGA)W-A week off and refreshed from the loss, Georgia took a hit this off season with personnel and some coaching changes. Their not necessarily rebuilding but it's going to take a couple of years to get back to very good status for them. Tennessee rocks Athens.

10/4 (Florida)W-Florida had a rough year, didn't make a bowl, got beat by Georgia Southern, and their licking their wounds. They had a hell of a signing day, but it's not enough, Tennessee breaks the streak at home and we might even rush the field.

10/11 (Chattanooga)W-The Vols explode to continue the 3 game winning streak, look for a whole lot of yards in the air and on the ground.

10/18 (@Ole Miss)W-Hugh Freeze has got Ole Miss back in the talk. His phenomenal signing class last year is finally maturing and The Rebels might make a little bit of a run, but Tennessee is out to prove themselves. The Rebels will not be good enough to hang, Butch Jones and staff will have it figured out racking up win number 4 in a row.

10/25 (@Alabama)L-The streak continues, Alabama is just too strong, as much as we would like to see Kiffin get crushed by his former team, Saban's well oiled machine is still running hard.

11/1 (@South Carolina)W-This game is a trap game, more like a resilience game, how strong is team 118? After getting smacked by Alabama, I believe they will handle Spurrier's bunch like champs. Tennessee wins by 10.

11/15 (Kentucky)W-Bob Stoops did a good job by landing Kentucky in the top 20 on signing day considering it is Kentucky. Tennessee smacks the Wildcats into oblivion.

11/22 (Mizzou)W-Revenge, Revenge, Revenge!!! After going to Mizzou last year and getting embarrassed, this will not be the same effort. Mizzou coming off an SEC Championship loss isn't going to be that good again. Gary Pinkel will have them up for a sub par year.

11/29 (@Vanderbilt)W-No more losses to Vanderbilt, a new streak will start. Vanderbilt will be beat down nonetheless. They lost recruits to Penn State, their in a state of emergency and it's going to be a while before they return anywhere near prominence.

FINAL RECORD Overall (10-2) SEC (7-1)

Far Fetched? I don't think so, I believe this a year of emergence, this a year of statement, and Tennessee is back!!!

You're going to be really upset this season if you think this is even remotely possible. You do realize we have to replace BOTH lines & have no idea who our QB is going to be, right? We are moving in the right direction, but this is a 5-7 schedule with the youth & lack of experience we have. Anything better means we out performed & overachieved, which would be great to see, but hasn't exactly been the case the last six years. Be patient. Good years are ahead of us, but 2014 ain't it.

 

[Vols_14]

I'd say at least 6-6 as long as we don't goof against Florida.

 

[JCHateSteve]

I see a lot of people focusing on the QB situation. It's important, no doubt. But I am more worried about the o line on the offensive side if the ball. Last years unit underachieved but we have no idea what we are going to get out of this unit. Worley is serviceable and should have more weapons this year. He will get us to 6-6. If Ferg passes him up in the preseason, so much the better. But all that is assuming the O line doesn't have a sizable drop off. The QB is important but the o line is the linchpin for the offense this year.

 

[MrBiggles]

7-5 and with luck and some breaks going our way it could be 8-4 or 9-3 (will need major breaks for this to happen, but stranger things have happened).

 

[daj2576]

Daj, this only takes in consideration of the 2014 class correct? Have you tried combining perhaps the past 3 years classes (maybe 2012,2013, and 2014) and getting an average from those teams recruiting score? Sorry if already asked

That graphic shows the four year trailing recruiting average for each team.

If you create a schedule like that for every team, you will find that 80% of the teams finish within two games of the predictions.

If you use it to determine the winner of any one regular season game you would be right about 70% of the time (that number is almost 80% of the time in the SEC).

If you use that to determine who wins a championship game, you would be right about 90% of the time.

Here is the 2014 SEC schedule ranked using that methodology.



And, if you want to see something really interesting...here is Butch Jones coaching history illustrated like that. The key take-a-way here is that he increases the four year recruiting average almost every year, and averages winning more than 3 games more a season than his talent predicts.

 

[fossilfiction]

That graphic shows the four year trailing recruiting average for each team.

If you create a schedule like that for every team, you will find that 80% of the teams finish within two games of the predictions.

If you use it to determine the winner of any one regular season game you would be right about 70% of the time (that number is almost 80% of the time in the SEC).

If you use that to determine who wins a championship game, you would be right about 90% of the time.

Here is the 2014 SEC schedule ranked using that methodology.

View attachment 74371

And, if you want to see something really interesting...here is Butch Jones coaching history illustrated like that. The key take-a-way here is that he increases the four year recruiting average almost every year, and averages winning more than 3 games more a season than his talent predicts.

View attachment 74372

Your SEC JPEG is off in about a dozen places. Hate to be that guy but it is
LSU is missing from all but two team's rankings in the East.

West has issues too. Is that by design?

Edit: never mind. Actual schedules are why it is that way. This is why it doesn't pay to be an arse without really paying attention to what is said!

 

[daj2576]

Your SEC JPEG is off in about a dozen places. Hate to be that guy but it is
LSU is missing from all but two team's rankings in the East.

West has issues too. Is that by design?

Edit: never mind. Actual schedules are why it is that way. This is why it doesn't pay to be an arse without really paying attention to what is said!

You had me worried that I had really screwed something up for a second. It certainly wouldn't be the first time.