2024 Official Seed List Watch Party Thread

#451
#451
Found this interesting

Bracket Preview Show has proven to be a good indicator of teams being seeded favorably when the actual bracket is released on Selection Sunday. Better than 83% of teams (80 of 96) have remained among the top four seeds when the actual brackets have been announced annually on Selection Sunday (removing the 2020 selections because of the tournament being canceled before Selection Sunday). Of the 16 teams that did not remain on the top four lines on Selection Sunday, nine were a No. 4 seed on the Bracket Preview Show. Only one No. 2 seed fell off the top four lines, while six No. 3 seeds failed to stay a top four seed.

The stability from the Bracket Preview Show to Selection Sunday has been even more evident among the very best teams. In each of the first five years of the Bracket Preview Show (not counting 2020), three of the four No. 1 seeds all remained on the No. 1 line. Last year, all four No. 1 seeds from the Bracket Preview Show were also No. 1 seeds on Selection Sunday.

www.ncaa.org

NCAA DI Men’s Basketball Committee to unveil top 16 teams Saturday; JoAn Scott promoted to VP of men’s basketball - NCAA.org

For the eighth consecutive year, the NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Committee will unveil its top 16 seeds roughly a month before Selection Sunday. The Bracket
www.ncaa.org www.ncaa.org
 
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#452
#452
If hypothetically we are on the 4 in ranking , Marquette and NC 5/6 but AZ and KS are 7/8. What team actually gets the West? Has there been tournament where the closest West team was 14 hours away? This is why I think a 6 ranked AZ somehow sneaks into a 1 seed
 
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#453
#453
Dougie_D said:
If hypothetically we are on the 4 in ranking , Marquette and NC 5/6 but AZ and KS are 7/8. What team actually gets the West? Has there been tournament where the closest West team was 14 hours away? This is why I think a 6 ranked AZ somehow sneaks into a 1 seed
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Arizona would be out West in that scenario, I’m not understanding your question I don’t think?
 
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#454
#454
Dougie_D said:
If hypothetically we are on the 4 in ranking , Marquette and NC 5/6 but AZ and KS are 7/8. What team actually gets the West? Has there been tournament where the closest West team was 14 hours away? This is why I think a 6 ranked AZ somehow sneaks into a 1 seed
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Kansas got the West last year which was Las Vegas, roughly 20 hours away from their campus
 
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#455
#455
While I prefer to be the last 1-seed, if this turned out to be our 4-team pod, I wouldn't hate it. Might be the next best case scenario. We've beaten Illinois and Creighton is good, but I'm not scared. Listening to the CBS College Basketball Podcast this morning, they mentioned Creighton is one of the worst teams in all of CBB at turning teams over. Feels like when we get into trouble is when we are sloppy with the basketball. If they can't turn us over, I'd like our chances in the S16.

 
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#456
#456
Dougie_D said:
If hypothetically we are on the 4 in ranking , Marquette and NC 5/6 but AZ and KS are 7/8. What team actually gets the West? Has there been tournament where the closest West team was 14 hours away? This is why I think a 6 ranked AZ somehow sneaks into a 1 seed
Click to expand...
A lot of people make this mistake. The AP and Coaches Top 25 polls have absolutely nothing - zilch, zero, nada - to do with the NCAA Tournament selection or seeding process. The AP poll is just the opinion of the journalists that cover the sport.
 
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#457
#457
bleedingTNorange said:
Arizona would be out West in that scenario, I’m not understanding your question I don’t think?
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Let’s hypothetically say that AZ, KS, ISO are slated to be 2 seed. The south, Midwest, and east are locked up. But let’s say TN, Marq, and NC slated to be either 1 or 2 seed. None of those teams make sense to be placed to the West. So they rather bump AZ. If TN is a 1 seed, it makes more sense to put them in South but Houston is taking South. I understand it SHOULD NOT matter, but I’m sure the committee wants easier logistics
 
#458
#458
Dougie_D said:
Let’s hypothetically say that AZ, KS, ISO are slated to be 2 seed. The south, Midwest, and east are locked up. But let’s say TN, Marq, and NC slated to be either 1 or 2 seed. None of those teams make sense to be placed to the West. So they rather bump AZ. If TN is a 1 seed, it makes more sense to put them in South but Houston is taking South. I understand it SHOULD NOT matter, but I’m sure the committee wants easier logistics
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It doesn’t work that way, teams have to go cross country all the time.
 
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#463
#463
bleedingTNorange said:
They try to place teams into the regions that are closest to them (rounds 3 & 4) starting with highest seeds, and place them into opening round (1&2) locations closest to them as well.
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This is why I think they are favoring AZ. IF 4 teams were borderline 1-2 seeds.. TN, marq, NC and AZ.. I think the committee puts AZ as 1 seed just because they can. If AZ started losing and becoming the 2/3 seed they would move TN to west of course because they can’t justify their standings. But if TN ends up 4th best but AZ is 5-6th best I just see them screwing over TN. And I’m not talking standings/ranking polls. I’m talking about what committee goes with. If AZ and TN were even.. they 100 percent go with AZ because TN is not closer to west than AZ
 
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#464
#464
Dougie_D said:
This is why I think they are favoring AZ. IF 4 teams were borderline 1-2 seeds.. TN, marq, NC and AZ.. I think the committee puts AZ as 1 seed just because they can. If AZ started losing and becoming the 2/3 seed they would move TN to west of course because they can’t justify their standings. But if TN ends up 4th best but AZ is 5-6th best I just see them screwing over TN. And I’m not talking standings/ranking polls. I’m talking about what committee goes with. If AZ and TN were even.. they 100 percent go with AZ because TN is not closer to west than AZ
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Arizona would get West region either way so it’s a moot point, that’s what you seem to be missing
 
#465
#465
bleedingTNorange said:
Arizona would get West region either way so it’s a moot point, that’s what you seem to be missing
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No I get that. But they won’t put AZ in the west as a 2 seed if they want TN to be in the west too.
TN can’t be in the west geographically if we are the 4th team. They would have to make Houston West but the S-curve would place #5 AZ in the south. I just don’t think the committee wants that. They’ll have to move teams up/down for balance too.
#1 Houston - #8 marq ( west)
#2 Purdue - #7 KS ( Midwest )
#3 UConn - #6 NC (East)
#4 TN - #5 AZ (south)
OR ?
#1 Houston - #8 NC (South)
#2 Purdue - #7 Marq Midwest )
#3 UConn - #6 KS(East)
#4 AZ - #5 TN (West)
 
#466
#466
Dougie_D said:
No I get that. But they won’t put AZ in the west as a 2 seed if they want TN to be in the west too.
TN can’t be in the west geographically if we are the 4th team. They would have to make Houston West but the S-curve would place #5 AZ in the south. I just don’t think the committee wants that.
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Says who? Once again, they did exactly that last year with Kansas as the #4 team on the S curve, they got the last available region which was 20 hours from their campus.

Also seems as if you don’t understand the S curve, they don’t just blindly follow that, so no, Arizona wouldn’t have to then be placed in the South.
 
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#467
#467
Dougie_D said:
But they won’t put AZ in the west as a 2 seed if they want TN to be in the west too.
TN can’t be in the west geographically if we are the 4th team.
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They absolutely can. The top four will be placed in the most sensible location as the committee snakes down the S-curve. It would take a miracle for UConn/Purdue/Houston to fall out of the top three in some order, so there's almost no question at this point that #4 will be going to Los Angeles whether it's Tennessee, UNC, Arizona or some dark horse that's also not located anywhere near California.
 
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#468
#468
TrumpedUpVol said:
They absolutely can. The top four will be placed in the most sensible location as the committee snakes down the S-curve. It would take a miracle for UConn/Purdue/Houston to fall out of the top three in some order, so there's almost no question at this point that #4 will be going to Los Angeles whether it's Tennessee, UNC, Arizona or some dark horse that's also not located anywhere near California.
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Correct and great point, UNC would also get sent to LA as a 1 seed and they’re further away than us.
 
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#470
#470
Little update as we head into the home stretch, according to TeamRankings we are 90%+ at getting a 3 seed or better so that’s where I’ll focus the seed list on.

As for 1 seed hopes, Arizona & North Carolina are the 2 main teams to focus on as those are the main threats for a potential 1 seed for Tennessee. As of today TeamRankings has our chances at a 1 seed at 30.3%, Barttorvik has our chances of a 1 seed at 40.1%, both sites have us right behind Arizona as the most likely team to get that 4th #1 seed.

Updated Seed List:

Purdue
Connecticut
Houston
Arizona
————————
North Carolina
TENNESSEE
Kansas
Marquette
————————
Iowa State
Alabama
Duke
Baylor
 
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#472
#472
TrumpedUpVol said:
They absolutely can. The top four will be placed in the most sensible location as the committee snakes down the S-curve. It would take a miracle for UConn/Purdue/Houston to fall out of the top three in some order, so there's almost no question at this point that #4 will be going to Los Angeles whether it's Tennessee, UNC, Arizona or some dark horse that's also not located anywhere near California.
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This - I think Dougie is missing the way this works. We will either be the #1 in the West with Arizona as the #2 (because it’s the only place we can grab the 1-seed), or Arizona will be the #1 out West and we’ll be the #2 in the South (our natural region).
 
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#473
#473
Enough with all this NCAAT seeding talk, what really needs to figured out is if BTO leaves Knoxville on a plane with a buddy flying to Los Angeles and VolCalls leaves Memphis in a compact sedan headed for Dallas, which Waffle House will they meet at to air their grievances? And will VolGee4 mediate?
 
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#474
#474
VolCalls said:
This - I think Dougie is missing the way this works. We will either be the #1 in the West with Arizona as the #2 (because it’s the only place we can grab the 1-seed), or Arizona will be the #1 out West and we’ll be the #2 in the South (our natural region).
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We may end up with the Midwest depending on how Houston, Purdue and ourselves finish…they won’t put us in the South as the Top 2 seed if Houston is also the Top 1 seed.
 
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