2024 Official Seed List Watch Party Thread

#129
#129
BallerVolFan said:
That is correct. Both the seeding and the draw matters. If I wasn’t at work, I’d put together some analytics that would prove this point further. Although you are more apt to winning it all if you’re a 1-seed, you still have to account for the other three 1-seeds as well. I’ve done this before and it’s really interesting to see the analytics behind it.
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Something that I’ve always wondered about is the impact of mid majors getting better seeds. The Butlers, Gonzagas, etc. used to be the 12 seeds. Now they get better seeding, the top mid majors I mean. That’s why the 5/12 isn’t as much of a thing as it used to be. The better mid majors aren’t seeded that low anymore. However, 4/13 upsets are about as likely as 5/12 the last few years. That’s due to more parity increasing 4/13 upsets and 5/12 upsets lessening. Don’t get me wrong, 5/12 upsets still happen but starting in 2015 it’s not been the same.
 
#134
#134
hUTch2002 said:
Something that I’ve always wondered about is the impact of mid majors getting better seeds. The Butlers, Gonzagas, etc. used to be the 12 seeds. Now they get better seeding, the top mid majors I mean. That’s why the 5/12 isn’t as much of a thing as it used to be. The better mid majors aren’t seeded that low anymore. However, 4/13 upsets are about as likely as 5/12 the last few years. That’s due to more parity increasing 4/13 upsets and 5/12 upsets lessening. Don’t get me wrong, 5/12 upsets still happen but starting in 2015 it’s not been the same.
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They get better seeds now because they dramatically boosted the strength of their non-conference schedules once they started winning. Power teams started scheduling them, albeit mostly at neutral sites, once they became a quality n/c game. And, Butler is now in the Big East as opposed to the Horizon League.
 
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#136
#136
Willy14 said:
He also says that Arizona will move back to a 1 seed if they beat Utah tonight, so we really need to be cheering for Utah
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Yes, but either way it goes to show just how close we are to that top seed line. Arizona has the tendency to falter along the stretch even to teams you think they should never lose to. I think it’ll come down to TN, Zona, UNC for that last #1 seed. Kansas still has a brutal schedule the rest of the way and I don’t see Marquette winning enough to jump up a seed. They still have to play UConn twice and Creighton on the road.
 
#137
#137
VolCalls said:
They get better seeds now because they dramatically boosted the strength of their non-conference schedules once they started winning. Power teams started scheduling them, albeit mostly at neutral sites, once they became a quality n/c game. And, Butler is now in the Big East as opposed to the Horizon League.
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Those were examples. It’s not just the scheduling though. I think the push from ESPN and others to include more mid majors has been part of it and there’s just way more access for people to see teams they didn’t used to see.
 
#138
#138
BallerVolFan said:
Yes, but either way it goes to show just how close we are to that top seed line. Arizona has the tendency to falter along the stretch even to teams you think they should never lose to. I think it’ll come down to TN, Zona, UNC for that last #1 seed. Kansas still has a brutal schedule the rest of the way and I don’t see Marquette winning enough to jump up a seed. They still have to play UConn twice and Creighton on the road.
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You assuming Houston will get a 1?
 
#139
#139
hUTch2002 said:
You assuming Houston will get a 1?
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I believe Houston still gets a 1-seed, yes. They only have one more road game against a ranked opponent and that is Baylor as well as Kansas and Iowa State on their home floor. I think they win the Big 12 and get a 1-seed. I don’t see two teams out of TN/Zona/UNC jumping Houston. But that’s based on my opinion of how I think Houston handles the rest of their schedule.
 
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#140
#140
BallerVolFan said:
I believe Houston still gets a 1-seed, yes. They only have one more road game against a ranked opponent and that is Baylor as well as Kansas and Iowa State on their home floor. I think they win the Big 12 and get a 1-seed. I don’t see two teams out of TN/Zona/UNC jumping Houston. But that’s based on my opinion of how I think Houston handles the rest of their schedule.
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Torvik agrees with you. He has them losing only 1 more game and winning the Big 12. They do that in the Big 12 and it would be difficult to keep them off the 1 line.
 
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#141
#141
wtmvol said:
Torvik agrees with you. He has them losing only 1 more game and winning the Big 12. They do that in the Big 12 and it would be difficult to keep them off the 1 line.
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That’s the way I see it playing out but it’s college basketball. You never know.
 
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#142
#142
BallerVolFan said:
I believe Houston still gets a 1-seed, yes. They only have one more road game against a ranked opponent and that is Baylor as well as Kansas and Iowa State on their home floor. I think they win the Big 12 and get a 1-seed. I don’t see two teams out of TN/Zona/UNC jumping Houston. But that’s based on my opinion of how I think Houston handles the rest of their schedule.
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Well since you’re basically Nostradamus I won’t question you.
 
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#143
#143
BallerVolFan said:
I believe Houston still gets a 1-seed, yes. They only have one more road game against a ranked opponent and that is Baylor as well as Kansas and Iowa State on their home floor. I think they win the Big 12 and get a 1-seed. I don’t see two teams out of TN/Zona/UNC jumping Houston. But that’s based on my opinion of how I think Houston handles the rest of their schedule.
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I am inclined to side with you on your prognostication ... but ... Cincinnati on the road?!? ALL of their recent losses are 5 points or less. They are a better team than their record.
Houston-Kansas last game of the season will be a big game. I suspect it will define the Big 12 champion.
Houston could lose at most ... 3 games. If they lose those 3: Cincinnati, Kansas and one more, let's say Oklahoma on the road.... Houston will not be a lock for the 1 line.
At this time, I only see Purdue and UConn as 'locks' on the 1 line.

Lest I be accused of seeing life through 'orange colored' glasses.... my pool for the remaining 2 slots on the 1 line, IN ORDER, are:
Houston, Arizona, North Carolina, Tennessee, Kansas

I think the committee (and bracketologists) give (legacy and unintentional) weight to 'named' programs.
What has to happen for us to sneak on to the one line ...
1) We have to go ... 7-2 (or better) and only drop road games to Quad 1 teams. That is doable. (I had us going [8-1 in the first half and we went 7-2] and I was hopeful of 7-2 down the stretch.) Granted, I am an optimist!
2) We will have to have some help with Houston, Arizona, and North Carolina taking more losses. We are going to need more than 1 loss per team.
 
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#145
#145
OrngeJuiceJones said:
Lunardi has us back down to 2 sees after Arizona moves to 1 after barely beating Utah
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Still a quality Q1 road win for them. If we take care of business on Saturday and beyond, we will still be in the hunt for a 1 seed. We have many opportunities to beef up our resume, while Arizona (at this time) has one lone Q1 opportunity remaining on the schedule.
 
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#147
#147
TheMookieMonster said:
Looking ahead to tomorrow’s slate of games, there are a ton of ranked opponents going on the road to unranked opponents. Definitely feels like a few of those teams will drop a game. Important for us to win tomorrow and avoid being one of those casualties.
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Teams that are IMO on upset watch:

#19 Creighton @ Xavier
#10 Illinois @ Michigan St
#12 Auburn @ Florida
#5 Houston @ Cincinatti
#6 Tennessee @ Texas A&M
#8 Arizona @ Colorado

Best case scenario would be for Auburn, Houston, and Arizona to all lose. I didn’t put North Carolina on here because I think they bounce back and win but that would also be another loss that benefits us. But most of all like you said, beat Texas A&M
 
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#149
#149
BallerVolFan said:
Teams that are IMO on upset watch:

#19 Creighton @ Xavier
#10 Illinois @ Michigan St
#12 Auburn @ Florida
#5 Houston @ Cincinatti
#6 Tennessee @ Texas A&M
#8 Arizona @ Colorado

Best case scenario would be for Auburn, Houston, and Arizona to all lose. I didn’t put North Carolina on here because I think they bounce back and win but that would also be another loss that benefits us. But most of all like you said, beat Texas A&M
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Add UNC anyway for the karma. Dream big. 🤣

Let's also add (as a home team) Kansas hosting Baylor. And (for the sake of the great thread) Kentucky hosting Gonzaga.
 
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#150
#150
Orange. said:
Add UNC anyway for the karma. Dream big. 🤣

Let's also add (as a home team) Kansas hosting Baylor. And (for the sake of the great thread) Kentucky hosting Gonzaga.
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Kansas coming off a loss and playing on their home floor. I don’t see them losing. And I’ll actually go as far to say they are 100% winning that game. And I hate to say this but I also think Kentucky blows Gonzaga off the floor
 
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