2024 Official Seed List Watch Party Thread

[bleedingTNorange]

If Tennessee can go 2-0 this week they should move up to the 1 line

 

[TheMookieMonster]

If Tennessee can go 2-0 this week they should move up to the 1 line

Yep. Really need to go 6-0 in this stretch. Do that and those last 4 games are less impactful. UNC, Kansas, and Arizona aren’t going to run the rest of the table. If we go 6-0, you can afford to drop a couple games in that brutal stretch and still get a 1-seed.

 

[walkenvol]

Yep. Really need to go 6-0 in this stretch. Do that and those last 4 games are less impactful. UNC, Kansas, and Arizona aren’t going to run the rest of the table. If we go 6-0, you can afford to drop a couple games in that brutal stretch and still get a 1-seed.

Last year the final 4 teams were seeded 4,5,5,9. The regular season has me thinking there’s as much parity this year as ever and I wouldn’t be surprised if a repeat of the higher seeded teams all losing. Seems like seeding may be becoming less important than it traditionally has been?

 

[Stoked]

Last year the final 4 teams were seeded 4,5,5,9. The regular season has me thinking there’s as much parity this year as ever and I wouldn’t be surprised if a repeat of the higher seeded teams all losing. Seems like seeding may be becoming less important than it traditionally has been?

While I do think you're right that seeding is becoming less important when it comes to making it to the Final 4... but out of the last 5 Championships 4 out of 5 Champions have been a 1 seed. If you want to take it a step further the last 11 out of 15 have been 1 seeds and 3 of the lower seeded teams were UConn (3, 4, and 7 seed) and the other lower seed was Nova as a 2 seed.

If you want to take it all the way back... 24 out of the 38 teams have been a 1 seed. 33 out of the 38 champions have been a 3 seed or better.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

Draws are more important than seeding. Having your roster at full strength is critical. Consistent, competent refs might be more important than anything since just about any team in the field could beat any other.

I’m not a fan of the NBA, but their officiating is so far superior to the clowns that the NCAA gives whistles and striped shirts to.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

History tells you that the better your seed the more likely you are to advance, you want the best seed possible.

 

[VolCalls]

While I do think you're right that seeding is becoming less important when it comes to making it to the Final 4... but out of the last 5 Championships 4 out of 5 Champions have been a 1 seed. If you want to take it a step further the last 11 out of 15 have been 1 seeds and 3 of the lower seeded teams were UConn (3, 4, and 7 seed) and the other lower seed was Nova as a 2 seed.

If you want to take it all the way back... 24 out of the 38 teams have been a 1 seed. 33 out of the 38 champions have been a 3 seed or better.

Love the analytics discussion. In looking at the parity, I saw a stat recently that showed every champion since 2002 has had a Top 40 KenPom offensive efficiency and top 25 defensive efficiency going into the tournament. If the tourney started today, that indicates the champion would come from this list: Houston, Purdue, UConn, Arizona, Auburn, Tennessee, North Carolina, Marquette, Kansas, Michigan St, Creighton, or New Mexico.

I’d keep an eye on Purdue, they could pull a Virginia and go from losing as a #16 seed to winning it all the next year.

 

[Thunder Good-Oil]

History tells you that the better your seed the more likely you are to advance, you want the best seed possible.

But without getting screwed by the draws. A 1 or 2 seed for Dook or UNC typically came with a lot of nearby venues.

I fully expect the NCAA to hit TN with the most difficult matchups that they can get away with. Our 2nd and 3rd round opponents will play a style that we’ve struggled with. The committee isn’t likely to protect TN, BUT at least the committee isn’t necessarily going to be loaded with individuals sympathetic to the NCAA’s BS as far as the current legal matters go.

 

[Stoerner Fumbles]

History tells you that the better your seed the more likely you are to advance, you want the best seed possible.

It’ll be interesting to assess this in 5-10 years. The case that many make is the parity trend combined with transfers, and early exit players is shifting the paradigm meaningfully. Reverse analysis of “history” is only so valuable when a trend line is broken by a paradigm shift.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

It’ll be interesting to assess this in 5-10 years. The case that many make is the parity trend combined with transfers, and early exit players is shifting the paradigm meaningfully. Reverse analysis of “history” is only so valuable when a trend line is broken by a paradigm shift.

I don’t doubt that the numbers will likely suggest more parity and not nearly as dominant percentages for higher seeds, but my guess is that the numbers will still be highest for the best seeds as they are now. I don’t think we will ever reach a point, or really even close, that being a 6 or 7 seed yields the same results as a 1 seed.

 

[BallerVolFan]

While I do think you're right that seeding is becoming less important when it comes to making it to the Final 4... but out of the last 5 Championships 4 out of 5 Champions have been a 1 seed. If you want to take it a step further the last 11 out of 15 have been 1 seeds and 3 of the lower seeded teams were UConn (3, 4, and 7 seed) and the other lower seed was Nova as a 2 seed.

If you want to take it all the way back... 24 out of the 38 teams have been a 1 seed. 33 out of the 38 champions have been a 3 seed or better.

That is correct. Both the seeding and the draw matters. If I wasn’t at work, I’d put together some analytics that would prove this point further. Although you are more apt to winning it all if you’re a 1-seed, you still have to account for the other three 1-seeds as well. I’ve done this before and it’s really interesting to see the analytics behind it.

 

[SN-A-C Orange]

That is correct. Both the seeding and the draw matters. If I wasn’t at work, I’d put together some analytics that would prove this point further. Although you are more apt to winning it all if you’re a 1-seed, you still have to account for the other three 1-seeds as well. I’ve done this before and it’s really interesting to see the analytics behind it.

Take your time ... but we want to see what you got. Enquiring minds and all that ...

 

[Stoerner Fumbles]

I don’t doubt that the numbers will likely suggest more parity and not nearly as dominant percentages for higher seeds, but my guess is that the numbers will still be highest for the best seeds as they are now. I don’t think we will ever reach a point, or really even close, that being a 6 or 7 seed yields the same results as a 1 seed.

Logically that’s the equivalent to saying better teams will do better. No one is refuting that, but I think it’s highly probable that lower seeds will perform better than they have in the past.

 

[orangemadam]

Would love to have a one seed but in looking at our remaining
schedule, that will be hard to do. A 2 seed will do nicely, although I'm hoping for a one.

Why don't we just lock it all down by winning the SEC league and Tournament so
the committee won't have to think too hard!

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Logically that’s the equivalent to saying better teams will do better. No one is refuting that, but I think it’s highly probable that lower seeds will perform better than they have in the past.

Don’t disagree at all…in a perfect world you wanna be playing your best, get the best possible matchups, the best possible locations, the smoothest flights etc etc. tons of variables that go into the whole thing. But what’s been a constant and will continue to be imo is that you typically want the best seed possible.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Would love to have a one seed but in looking at our remaining
schedule, that will be hard to do. A 2 seed will do nicely, although I'm hoping for a one.

Why don't we just lock it all down by winning the SEC league and Tournament so
the committee won't have to think too hard!

I’d be just fine winning the SEC and then dropping our opening Friday game and heading to the NCAAT as a 1 seed.

 

[chuckiepoo]

I’d be just fine winning the SEC and then dropping our opening Friday game and heading to the NCAAT as a 1 seed.

…and open the door for, “The Committee chose to place an increased emphasis on conference tournament performances.” I’d just as soon play the games before us and compete.

 

[cobbwebb0710]

…and open the door for, “The Committee chose to place an increased emphasis on conference tournament performances.” I’d just as soon play the games before us and compete.

I don’t care who knows it...I cried like a little girl when we cut down the nets in ‘22!
I spent my whole life waiting on an SEC tourney championship, I’ve still got some years left in me and I want to see more!

 

[chuckiepoo]

I don’t care who knows it...I cried like a little girl when we cut down the nets in ‘22!
I spent my whole life waiting on an SEC tourney championship, I’ve still got some years left in me and I want to see more!

I enjoyed it myself! I wouldn’t be wringing my hands if we lost on Friday night, due to the advantage of heading into The 68 fresh.

 

[BallerVolFan]

Lunardi says Tennessee will jump up to a #1 seed with a blowout win over LSU. He currently has Arizona as the last #1 seed. Interesting.

 

[knoxvol52]

I don’t care who knows it...I cried like a little girl when we cut down the nets in ‘22!
I spent my whole life waiting on an SEC tourney championship, I’ve still got some years left in me and I want to see more!

 

[cobbwebb0710]

I enjoyed it myself! I wouldn’t be wringing my hands if we lost on Friday night, due to the advantage of heading into The 68 fresh.

I get it, but there’s just something about besting your conference brethren that really gets my pride flowing.

 

[cobbwebb0710]

Back off bruh!
I wanted a conference tourney crown, very badly.

 

[knoxvol52]

Back off bruh!
I wanted a conference tourney crown, very badly.

Didn't say a word sir...

 

[cobbwebb0710]

Didn't say a word sir...