50-50 chance of catastrophic radiation leak?

#201
#201
MG1968 said:
gibbs is a hypocrite when it comes to money and wealth. He has admitted that he does quite well financially. You'd think that someone so averse to "capital" would seek to distance themselves from it. Instead, gibbs has embraced it with the tenacity of an 800lb. gorilla, he just doesn't want anybody else to succeed because they might buy an SUV and a few incandescent light bulbs.
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I give you... Frederick Engels.

Goethe also had a great analogy regarding his childhood where his father rebuilt the family home from the inside out, floor-to-floor. The analogy is excellent because we must still live in the house even as we renovate its entire superstructure.

The need for renovating our social order, removing from it the inherent (and unsustainable) antagonisms of Capital, could not be more clear, and they were clear long before the Fukushima disaster. Engels worked inside the system his whole life, as a manufacturer in Manchester, although he certainly worked as hard as anyone for the Revolution.

To be honest, I am conflicted as well. I think, however, we need people working inside the house in order to effect the renovations needed. I certainly could be wrong, and it may be counter-productive. :dunno:

I can concede being guilty of hypocrisy to some extent, but I think hypocrite is a bit unfair.
 
#202
#202
The BBC is reporting that Japanese police have aborted the water cannon operation due to excessive radiation levels. Is there a fine line between the Japanese police and military - because originally the Japanese said the military would be attempting to use 11 water cannons.

Another interesting note - the Japanese are saying that the storage pools in both 3 and 4 are in trouble, but that the situation seems worse in 3 so they are focusing there first (the pool may have been damaged by either the earthquake or the hydrogen explosion). Reactor 4 has considerably more spent fuel, but reactor 3 has people (ptesumably) inside it's lead-shielded control room trying to prevent a meltdown, trying to lower levels in 3 may seem more attractive to them.

As an observation (but not a malicious judgement), the Japanese are having to prioritize things that cannot afford to be prioritized. An example of such a mistake was putting off concerns over the spent fuel ponds as they tried to regain cooling control over the reactors. They lost their window, it seems, to address the issue without facing incredibly high radiation. I worry about where the focus on 3 is going to leave us with the pool at 4. Hopefully the situation is better than it seems, but from my perspective they are facing near-impossible decisions.
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#203
#203
so, gibbs, you want to be one of Marx's bourgeois socialists? People who are kept around because their capital is useful to the State.
 
#204
#204
g8terh8ter_eric said:
I say drop a bunch of liquid nitrogen on it. That would cool anything off.
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Dropping it likely wouldn't work, but don't be surprised if you see it used in some way before this is over, particularly if the hot materialsbegin leading to more fires.
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#205
#205
How much power is needed to cool a reactor? Seems like there would be some sort of fail safe or backup generators.
 
#206
#206
Official: Low radioactivity heads for N. America
'It is nothing for people to worry about,' Swedish government scientist says
Yeah no worries, it's good for us of course..
 
#207
#207
Cartervol said:
How much power is needed to cool a reactor? Seems like there would be some sort of fail safe or backup generators.
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There are. There are multiple backups. One backup is battery-powered (also capable of being recharged via steam) and the other is diesel powered. I'm not sure why the battery-powered system stooped working, but it may be that they ran out of juice and the steam generators failed.

The diesel-powered system was knocked out by the tsunami.
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#208
#208
myrobbins7 said:
Official: Low radioactivity heads for N. America
'It is nothing for people to worry about,' Swedish government scientist says
Yeah no worries, it's good for us of course..
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Well, it's obviously not good - but at the moment, I don't see a mechanism for transporting radiatioactive materials of any real significance to the US mainland. I can't see a way in which we get levels that would be worth worrying about.
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#209
#209
MG1968 said:
so, gibbs, you want to be one of Marx's bourgeois socialists? People who are kept around because their capital is useful to the State.
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Right now, economic rationality reigns supreme over the needs of people. We didn't need the Fukushima disaster to know this, although it does put the issue in sharp relief.

What we need is a sustainable society where social considerations reign supreme over the needs of Capital. This is the compass, the sextant, the navigational prerogative we need as we effect the necessary renovations to the planetary household.

Capital is in its terminal decline as its structure has hit the actual physical limits of our tiny blue planet. One push will topple the global superstructure. - 90 million barrels, anyone?
 
#210
#210
MSNBC says that US charters are starting to take Americans out of Tokyo. Sounds like the US is saying get the hell out without flat out coming out and saying it. Also says they are making a plan to get everyone off of the US military bases in Japan. Does not sound good.
 
#211
#211
utgibbs said:
Right now, economic rationality reigns supreme over the needs of people. We didn't need the Fukushima disaster to know this, although it does put the issue in sharp relief.

What we need is a sustainable society where social considerations reign supreme over the needs of Capital. This is the compass, the sextant, the navigational prerogative we need as we effect the necessary renovations to the planetary household.

Capital is in its terminal decline as its structure has hit the actual physical limits of our tiny blue planet. One push will topple the global superstructure. - 90 million barrels, anyone?
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There are times when I'm feeling cynical and I can almost see you pondering the upsides of a really good global pandemic. I don't know if you've read Rainbow Six but you seem to have a fair amount of John Brightling in you...or at least your persona here.
 
#212
#212
TEPCO is reporting some success at delivering water spray to the reactor building (presumably reactor 3) now. They said they are producing steam from the spray, which means they are cooling something - hopefully they are hitting the storage pool.
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#213
#213
hndog609 said:
There are times when I'm feeling cynical and I can almost see you pondering the upsides of a really good global pandemic. I don't know if you've read Rainbow Six but you seem to have a fair amount of John Brightling in you...or at least your persona here.
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I had to google Rainbow Six to be fair. I've never read any Clancy.

I do not want in any way, shape, or form a "crash-landing" scenario (which will only mean intense hardship and crushing authoritarianism IMHO). I want the rational restructuring of the planetary household. The "invisible hand" cannot deliver these much needed rational solutions. It is a matter of utmost urgency, but (hopefully) does not require a pandemic or global conflagration.
 
#215
#215
The JAIF reports that the water level has come up in level 2. That's good, particularly considering there is containment damage there. However, all of these reactors have had at least half of their fuel exposed above the water level for a very long time now. There has to be a lot of radioactive materials exposed (in the reactor) at this point.

I'm a little more optimistic today. As bad as the spent fuel rod situation is, there have been gains made toward preventing a total meltdown of the reactors. There has also been some progress made toward cooling the pool in 3. The progress may not be enough to prevent a turn for the worse later, but that's better than a turn for the worse now.
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#216
#216
TennTradition said:
The JAIF reports that the water level has come up in level 2. That's good, particularly considering there is containment damage there. However, all of these reactors have had at least half of their fuel exposed above the water level for a very long time now. There has to be a lot of radioactive materials exposed (in the reactor) at this point.

I'm a little more optimistic today. As bad as the spent fuel rod situation is, there have been gains made toward preventing a total meltdown of the reactors. There has also been some progress made toward cooling the pool in 3. The progress may not be enough to prevent a turn for the worse later, but that's better than a turn for the worse now.
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Glad to hear they have made some progress.

I think it likely that this company is going to find itself pretty much out of business at the end of the day. If the raw cost of the damage weren't enough, they are certainly going to face enormous (and perhaps well-deserved) criticism for understating the severity of the problem for far too long such that these mechanisms that are now in place were needlessly delayed while they just hoped things would work out.
 
#217
#217
TennTradition said:
The JAIF reports that the water level has come up in level 2. That's good, particularly considering there is containment damage there. However, all of these reactors have had at least half of their fuel exposed above the water level for a very long time now. There has to be a lot of radioactive materials exposed (in the reactor) at this point.

I'm a little more optimistic today. As bad as the spent fuel rod situation is, there have been gains made toward preventing a total meltdown of the reactors. There has also been some progress made toward cooling the pool in 3. The progress may not be enough to prevent a turn for the worse later, but that's better than a turn for the worse now.
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Apologies if this has been covered elsewhere but I'm at a loss as to what the "end game" is supposed to be in this. Everything I'm seeing looks like someone who is just trying to run around a big tree and keep the hungry bear on the other side. What's on the other side of "trying to prevent things from going all to hell right now"?
 
#218
#218
govols1864 said:
MSNBC says that US charters are starting to take Americans out of Tokyo. Sounds like the US is saying get the hell out without flat out coming out and saying it. Also says they are making a plan to get everyone off of the US military bases in Japan. Does not sound good.
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I still don't believe they are in serious danger, but if you truly care for your health, there's no reason to stay. Almost like there's no reason not to stay inside. The health risks aren't all that high, but why not take all necessary precautions.
 
#220
#220
I think this story is being overblown. I was listening to Glen Beck, this morning he had an interesting show, for a change. Anyways, he was reading a book out loud he had read that discussed Chernobyl.

To paraphase, the people within a ~15-20 mile radius of Chernobyl faced a 1.8% higher mortality rate of cancer if they stayed then if they moved. That's it 1.8%. Russia went ahead and moved them, but based on the radiation exposure that was their increased risk of cancer. He also mentioned that most of the radiation at Chernoybl went straight up into the atmosphere. This book was written by a nuclear physicist at UCLA-Berkley. If this true, just seems like a lot of irresponsible reporting and over dramatizing by the media.
 
#222
#222
hndog609 said:
Apologies if this has been covered elsewhere but I'm at a loss as to what the "end game" is supposed to be in this. Everything I'm seeing looks like someone who is just trying to run around a big tree and keep the hungry bear on the other side. What's on the other side of "trying to prevent things from going all to hell right now"?
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Good question. To me the goal is to keep things as cool as possible as long as possible. The cooler things are, the less chance for rapid release events, fires, etc. There is and willbe radiation release. There is and will be radioactive material release. The amount of material traveling any appreciable distance right now is small. The goal is to keep it that way. Ultimately, if no significant breach occurs then they'll back off and let it sit for a few years then come clean up. If a breach occurs somewhere, which is still reasonably likely, they may have to entomb. I think all of the efforts are just trying to prevent a very energetic event from spreading the material. The spent fuel is the wild card in all of this - but I think the end game isn't that much different.
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#224
#224
oklavol said:
I think this story is being overblown. I was listening to Glen Beck, this morning he had an interesting show, for a change. Anyways, he was reading a book out loud he had read that discussed Chernobyl.

To paraphase, the people within a ~15-20 mile radius of Chernobyl faced a 1.8% higher mortality rate of cancer if they stayed then if they moved. That's it 1.8%. Russia went ahead and moved them, but based on the radiation exposure that was their increased risk of cancer. He also mentioned that most of the radiation at Chernoybl went straight up into the atmosphere. This book was written by a nuclear physicist at UCLA-Berkley. If this true, just seems like a lot of irresponsible reporting and over dramatizing by the media.
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I saw last night on tv that the thyroid cancer rate among children and young adults in the affected area has been 500 times what would ordinarily be expected.

I wouldn't put much stock in anything Beck has to say, other than maybe where to get a good doughnut. Have to also confess that it makes me laugh that Mr. DoomsdayIsApproaching is trying to dumb this down. The irony on that is pretty thick.
 
#225
#225
VolsNSkinsFan said:
I elect Oklavol to man one of the fire hoses.

Seriously, you couldnt pay me 10 grand to fly to Tokyo today
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No offense, your just revealing your ignorance. The people at the facility at great risk because of their proximity, but a people a few miles away, are not because most of the radiation went straight up in the air, as I've already said.
 
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