Alex Poythress

[bleedingTNorange]

I disagree. To say he has done "far less" than anyone is crazy. Has he won a championship yet? No, but he's only had two shots at it and has been close both times.

I never said his style was the "best way" to do anything. If there was some sort of mathematical formula to winning, all coaches would do it the same way. I simply said that I believe having the most talent will eventually win out. That's not some sort of finite statement either. It's simply opinion based on the odds of being physically better than everyone. Each year, Vegas puts odds on who they think will win the NCAA championship, and those odds are largely based on talent. It's the only tangible evidence to make predictions on. Unfortunately, there are so many intangible factors that cannot be measured, and sometimes those outweigh the talent factor.

Cal may never get it done, but it won't be because he didn't have the best available talent to do it with.

i will let you draw your own opinion from this just figured id share the research i found. from the teams with comparable recruiting in the last decade as far as putting guys in the NBA, keeping in mind that Cal put in more than all these teams, UCONN, Kansas, Duke, and North Carolina. Since 2000...

Elite 8- N.C. 7, Kansas 6, Uconn 5, Duke 3, Cal 1

Final Four- N.C. 4, Duke 3, Uconn 3, Kansas 3, Cal 1

Championships- N.C. 2, Duke 2, Uconn 2, Kansas 1, Cal 0

 

[bleedingTNorange]

In that case, I agree. They have enough coaching ability and talent year in and year out to make it to the Elite Eight. Fans will be disappointed with anything less than a championship just UT football fans were disappointed finishing 11-2 in the 90's. Should that get the coach fired is the question. I don't think it should, nor do I think it will. Like I said, in the crazy event that it did, Cal's ego is too big to get fired. He will leave on his own.

should it get him fired? abosolutely not making it to elite 8's year in and year out even sweet 16's is hard to do. unfortunately UK holds their coaches to a completely different standard from everyone else in college. as you said he probably would split if he started hearing rumors but the truth would come out that he was on the hot seat.

 

[zansdad]

Wow. This thread is seriously off the rails.

 

[RhodesVol]

should it get him fired? abosolutely not making it to elite 8's year in and year out even sweet 16's is hard to do. unfortunately UK holds their coaches to a completely different standard from everyone else in college. as you said he probably would split if he started hearing rumors but the truth would come out that he was on the hot seat.

+1

 

[LittleCat]

So question to a uk fan. If in 3 more years cal has yet to win a championship, let's say 1 final four an elite 8 and a second round knock out. Is BBN starting to rumble a bit, assuming he brings in top 3 classes as well all those years.

I think we expect a championship soon. But i dont think so.
However, BBN would be stupid to call for his leaving.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I think we expect a championship soon. But i dont think so.
However, BBN would be stupid to call for his leaving.

so in your opinion cal stays as long as he wants as he makes it into the tourney and to atleast the sweet 16 most years?

 

[Hardwood_fanatic]

There are like 5 posts to reply to, and I don't have that kinda time on my hands. I've spilled out my feelings and opinions on this subject in length in various spots on the forum, no need for that. What I will say is this...

When UK jumped in bed with Cal, it wasn't because they felt he was their long term coach. They knew up front and so did he that this would only be a courtship, and not a long relationship. Kentucky knew (which is why Lee Todd and Mitchell spent countless hours in communication with the NCAA before hiring him) what they were getting into, and deemed it worth the risk. This marriage between the two isn't one of love and affection for a program, or a long term solution. It is to get this program back on top in a hurry, and WIN AND WIN NOW. Cal knows just like UK knows that he has about 5-7 seasons to win a title or two or make some serious back to back final four runs, or they will be mutually parting ways. It's just not something that is meant to last.

IMO, Kentuckys dream scenario is that Cal brings a title (that sticks in the record books) and are then able to find an elite coach to step in and take control of the program like Tubby did, except this time not drive it off a cliff in 5 -6 years.

 

[cncchris33]

i will let you draw your own opinion from this just figured id share the research i found. from the teams with comparable recruiting in the last decade as far as putting guys in the NBA, keeping in mind that Cal put in more than all these teams, UCONN, Kansas, Duke, and North Carolina. Since 2000...

Elite 8- N.C. 7, Kansas 6, Uconn 5, Duke 3, Cal 1

Final Four- N.C. 4, Duke 3, Uconn 3, Kansas 3, Cal 1

Championships- N.C. 2, Duke 2, Uconn 2, Kansas 1, Cal 0

That information is great, but what does it prove in the context of our discussion? Cal hasn't been recruiting like he has the last three years since 2000. If his talent level from 2000-2008 was an 8 on a scale of 1-10, it's at an unprecedented 10+ level since 2009. At the same time, what would you put his odds at for having more championships if he were able to maintain his current level of recruiting success from 2000-present? Again, playing the odds, I would have to believe that he would have at worst, "lucked into" at least one championship in that time frame.

I refuse to step back in time to compare him as a coach pre-UK because he has changed the playing field. Like I said, he may never get it done at UK, and that would be a major disappointment if he stays 7 more seasons and keeps out-recruiting the competition the way he has. I just think having that ridiculous amount of talent has to pan out at some point. I may be wrong.

 

[LittleCat]

so in your opinion cal stays as long as he wants as he makes it into the tourney and to atleast the sweet 16 most years?

Until he wants to leave. Which will be 6-8 years imo.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

There are like 5 posts to reply to, and I don't have that kinda time on my hands. I've spilled out my feelings and opinions on this subject in length in various spots on the forum, no need for that. What I will say is this...

When UK jumped in bed with Cal, it wasn't because they felt he was their long term coach. They knew up front and so did he that this would only be a courtship, and not a long relationship. Kentucky knew (which is why Lee Todd and Mitchell spent countless hours in communication with the NCAA before hiring him) what they were getting into, and deemed it worth the risk. This marriage between the two isn't one of love and affection for a program, or a long term solution. It is to get this program back on top in a hurry, and WIN AND WIN NOW. Cal knows just like UK knows that he has about 5-7 seasons to win a title or two or make some serious back to back final four runs, or they will be mutually parting ways. It's just not something that is meant to last.

IMO, Kentuckys dream scenario is that Cal brings a title (that sticks in the record books) and are then able to find an elite coach to step in and take control of the program like Tubby did, except this time not drive it off a cliff in 5 -6 years.

very good insight and info. as always much appreciated. this sounds about right to what i was thinking, my only question is you said 5-7 years to win. how long is remaining on the contract? also, how long in your opinion would UK wait with out winning a title before parting ways? (assuming he's going to elite 8's sweet 16's maybe a final four or 2). thanks for the input.

 

[LittleCat]

very good insight and info. as always much appreciated. this sounds about right to what i was thinking, my only question is you said 5-7 years to win. how long is remaining on the contract? also, how long in your opinion would UK wait with out winning a title before parting ways? (assuming he's going to elite 8's sweet 16's maybe a final four or 2). thanks for the input.

Personally, Cal will leave before "rumbling" starts. The BBN is very content with 1 Elite 8 and a final four so far. But expectations will rise.

 

[cncchris33]

There are like 5 posts to reply to, and I don't have that kinda time on my hands. I've spilled out my feelings and opinions on this subject in length in various spots on the forum, no need for that. What I will say is this...

When UK jumped in bed with Cal, it wasn't because they felt he was their long term coach. They knew up front and so did he that this would only be a courtship, and not a long relationship. Kentucky knew (which is why Lee Todd and Mitchell spent countless hours in communication with the NCAA before hiring him) what they were getting into, and deemed it worth the risk. This marriage between the two isn't one of love and affection for a program, or a long term solution. It is to get this program back on top in a hurry, and WIN AND WIN NOW. Cal knows just like UK knows that he has about 5-7 seasons to win a title or two or make some serious back to back final four runs, or they will be mutually parting ways. It's just not something that is meant to last.

IMO, Kentuckys dream scenario is that Cal brings a title (that sticks in the record books) and are then able to find an elite coach to step in and take control of the program like Tubby did, except this time not drive it off a cliff in 5 -6 years.

I can roll with this. Essentially, you are saying he needs to return the program to prominence, but that doesn't necessarily require a championship if they are seriously in the hunt year in and year out, correct? That has been my stance since post one.

 

[RhodesVol]

There are like 5 posts to reply to, and I don't have that kinda time on my hands. I've spilled out my feelings and opinions on this subject in length in various spots on the forum, no need for that. What I will say is this...

When UK jumped in bed with Cal, it wasn't because they felt he was their long term coach. They knew up front and so did he that this would only be a courtship, and not a long relationship. Kentucky knew (which is why Lee Todd and Mitchell spent countless hours in communication with the NCAA before hiring him) what they were getting into, and deemed it worth the risk. This marriage between the two isn't one of love and affection for a program, or a long term solution. It is to get this program back on top in a hurry, and WIN AND WIN NOW. Cal knows just like UK knows that he has about 5-7 seasons to win a title or two or make some serious back to back final four runs, or they will be mutually parting ways. It's just not something that is meant to last.

IMO, Kentuckys dream scenario is that Cal brings a title (that sticks in the record books) and are then able to find an elite coach to step in and take control of the program like Tubby did, except this time not drive it off a cliff in 5 -6 years.

This sounds like the Kentucky I know.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Until he wants to leave. Which will be 6-8 years imo.

i would be more than schocked if in 3 years cal doesnt have a championship an is still at UK. (unless it was like 3 final fours) hopefully UK booster and AD are as rational as you, they would be wise to follow your lead in all honesty.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I can roll with this. Essentially, you are saying he needs to return the program to prominence, but that doesn't necessarily require a championship if they are seriously in the hunt year in and year out, correct? That has been my stance since post one.

he is saying if they dont win a championship then they need to be pulling back to back final fours pretty much every year. you never said that this would be all it would take, you insinuated multiple times that elite 8's were plenty good enough to keep his job and even sweet 16's were fine. from my understanding hardwood is saying that if cal doesnt win a championship he better be rolling off final fours 2 and 3 in a row and maybe one or two elite 8's at worse in his tenure, that was my understanding. from what you said cal is fine not getting that deep every year, you said fans expecting final fours and elite 8's every year need to lower their expectations. so you are suggesting that sweet 16 one year elite 8 one year and final 4 one year is plenty good enough, or something to that effect. i would disagree with that resume being ok but i suppose only time will tell. as you said earlier if he wins one then noone of this really mattters

 

[bleedingTNorange]

Personally, Cal will leave before "rumbling" starts. The BBN is very content with 1 Elite 8 and a final four so far. But expectations will rise.

i feel with the team that he has this year this should be the team so far that UK fans have the highest expectations for so far. is this accurate to how it is up therer?

 

[bleedingTNorange]

That information is great, but what does it prove in the context of our discussion? Cal hasn't been recruiting like he has the last three years since 2000. If his talent level from 2000-2008 was an 8 on a scale of 1-10, it's at an unprecedented 10+ level since 2009. At the same time, what would you put his odds at for having more championships if he were able to maintain his current level of recruiting success from 2000-present? Again, playing the odds, I would have to believe that he would have at worst, "lucked into" at least one championship in that time frame.

I refuse to step back in time to compare him as a coach pre-UK because he has changed the playing field. Like I said, he may never get it done at UK, and that would be a major disappointment if he stays 7 more seasons and keeps out-recruiting the competition the way he has. I just think having that ridiculous amount of talent has to pan out at some point. I may be wrong.

i had said that cal has done far less than what other coaches who have had comparable nba talent on the rosters have done. since 2000 cal has put the most players into the NBA, that number is 20. he put 11 guys into the nba in his time at memphis, and 9 at uk. the other coaches who had close to that number of nba players coach k 15, self 19, williams 16, and calhoun 15 have all experienced far better success with less talent than cal, thats all im saying. my ponit is that with even far greater talent in the last decade than other coaches had he didnt even compare to the success that these coaches had with elite 8's, final fours, and championships.

for giggles i looked up the odds for this year and vegas had North Carolina as the favorite so they didnt go with the team with the most talent, found that interesting.

 

[cncchris33]

i had said that cal has done far less than what other coaches who have had comparable nba talent on the rosters have done. since 2000 cal has put the most players into the NBA, that number is 20. he put 11 guys into the nba in his time at memphis, and 9 at uk. the other coaches who had close to that number of nba players coach k 15, self 19, williams 16, and calhoun 15 have all experienced far better success with less talent than cal, thats all im saying. my ponit is that with even far greater talent in the last decade than other coaches had he didnt even compare to the success that these coaches had with elite 8's, final fours, and championships.

for giggles i looked up the odds for this year and vegas had North Carolina as the favorite so they didnt go with the team with the most talent, found that interesting.

You are missing my point. Can't you see that he has obviously changed the nature of recruiting? 11 players in 9 years at Memphis, and 9 players in 2 years at UK. His odds are getting better because his talent margin has increased. All I am saying is that at some point, the odds of having the best talent should bare out. Does that mean it will while he is there? No. Just like flipping a coin doesn't guarantee an equal number of "heads" and "tails" results. You might flip a coin 10 times and it land on heads every time. However, played out over and over, the odds will eventually even out.

As I said before, talent isn't everything. It is however the only measurable thing. Well, that and experience, which I would venture is the reason UNC was the favorite this year. Vegas values the margin in experience between Kentucky and UNC more than the talent gap. Keep in mind, UNC is not short on talent either. They also just happen to have the experience to go with it, so that prediction doesn't surprise me in hindsight despite the fact that UK beat UNC in a close game.

 

[CatsQueue]

i had said that cal has done far less than what other coaches who have had comparable nba talent on the rosters have done. since 2000 cal has put the most players into the NBA, that number is 20. he put 11 guys into the nba in his time at memphis, and 9 at uk. the other coaches who had close to that number of nba players coach k 15, self 19, williams 16, and calhoun 15 have all experienced far better success with less talent than cal, thats all im saying. my ponit is that with even far greater talent in the last decade than other coaches had he didnt even compare to the success that these coaches had with elite 8's, final fours, and championships.

for giggles i looked up the odds for this year and vegas had North Carolina as the favorite so they didnt go with the team with the most talent, found that interesting.

I don't have the time to do the math but I think you are overlooking a significant factor in your coaching comparison. Take Cal's 20 players and add up the number of season's each played for him. Take Coach K's 15 and do the same. Then repeat for Calhoun - Williams and Self. You will find that the total years on campus by NBA draftees is higher for every other coach. Cal has way more one and dones.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

I don't have the time to do the math but I think you are overlooking a significant factor in your coaching comparison. Take Cal's 20 players and add up the number of season's each played for him. Take Coach K's 15 and do the same. Then repeat for Calhoun - Williams and Self. You will find that the total years on campus by NBA draftees is higher for every other coach. Cal has way more one and dones.

and who's fault is it for recruiting those guys? im not suggesting he shouldnt recruit them but cal has NOBODY to blame but himself for players leaving after 1 year.

 

[cncchris33]

he is saying if they dont win a championship then they need to be pulling back to back final fours pretty much every year. That is not how I understood it. I imagine this scenario keeping him safe...Elite 8, FF, FF, Elite 8, FF. The first two represent his first two seasons and the last three a possible scenario for this season and the next two. To say that he needs to be pulling in Final Four's every year is ridiculous. you never said that this would be all it would take, you insinuated multiple times that elite 8's were plenty good enough to keep his job and even sweet 16's were fine. I don't remember saying that Elite 8 appearances ONLY were satisfactory and certainly not Sweet 16's. Feel free to find proof of that one. from my understanding hardwood is saying that if cal doesnt win a championship he better be rolling off final fours 2 and 3 in a row and maybe one or two elite 8's at worse in his tenure, that was my understanding. from what you said cal is fine not getting that deep every year, you said fans expecting final fours and elite 8's every year need to lower their expectations. Never said any of that, but on the subject, do I think he is getting fired if he gets knocked out in the Sweet 16 one year? Nope. so you are suggesting that sweet 16 one year elite 8 one year and final 4 one year is plenty good enough, or something to that effect. i would disagree with that resume being ok but i suppose only time will tell. as you said earlier if he wins one then noone of this really mattters

For the record, I didn't say half the stuff you attributed to me in that post. I wish you would do a better job recollecting or interpreting what I have said and stop putting words in my mouth. Just review the earlier posts before you start spouting off.

 

[cncchris33]

and who's fault is it for recruiting those guys? im not suggesting he shouldnt recruit them but cal has NOBODY to blame but himself for players leaving after 1 year.

He has said multiple times that he doesn't like the one and done rule, but he has to play by it. If he doesn't recruit them, the competition will. He has the system to blame, not himself.

 

[bleedingTNorange]

You are missing my point. Can't you see that he has obviously changed the nature of recruiting? 11 players in 9 years at Memphis, and 9 players in 2 years at UK. His odds are getting better because his talent margin has increased. All I am saying is that at some point, the odds of having the best talent should bare out. Does that mean it will while he is there? No. Just like flipping a coin doesn't guarantee an equal number of "heads" and "tails" results. You might flip a coin 10 times and it land on heads every time. However, played out over and over, the odds will eventually even out.

As I said before, talent isn't everything. It is however the only measurable thing. Well, that and experience, which I would venture is the reason UNC was the favorite this year. Vegas values the margin in experience between Kentucky and UNC more than the talent gap. Keep in mind, UNC is not short on talent either. They also just happen to have the experience to go with it, so that prediction doesn't surprise me in hindsight despite the fact that UK beat UNC in a close game.

i completely get what you are saying and it does make perfect sense, i do find it interesting though that vegas doesnt see it the most talented team being the favorite. as you said though you would think that having this talented of a team, practically a NBA team would at some point produce a nba championship team. i guess what i was trying to get at is; cal's strategy is obviously get the best players you possibly can, my question is, is this a winning strategy? so far it hasnt worked for him and many dont think the one year revolving door will. the difference with duke, unc, kansas, and uconn is all those teams may have 1 guy go after one year or 2 at most but then they'll have a couple stay for another year, they have upperclassmen leadership. i think that is greatly missing from Cal's super teams that he creates, in fact i feel without patrick patterson, josh harrelson, and darius miller this year they are a couple losses worse each year the senior leadership those guys have provided has been huge. starting next year though there are no more of these guys that can step into that role, it truly will be a team of 12 guys on scholarship that are probably freaking 1st round picks.

 

[LittleCat]

i feel with the team that he has this year this should be the team so far that UK fans have the highest expectations for so far. is this accurate to how it is up therer?

This year everyone says will win it. Which is exactly why i think we wont. We arent mature enough. Davis and MKG cant carry the team without help from Jones, Miller and Lamb. But it seems like no one can hit consistency.

 

[cncchris33]

i completely get what you are saying and it does make perfect sense, i do find it interesting though that vegas doesnt see it the most talented team being the favorite. as you said though you would think that having this talented of a team, practically a NBA team would at some point produce a nba championship team. i guess what i was trying to get at is; cal's strategy is obviously get the best players you possibly can, my question is, is this a winning strategy? so far it hasnt worked for him and many dont think the one year revolving door will. the difference with duke, unc, kansas, and uconn is all those teams may have 1 guy go after one year or 2 at most but then they'll have a couple stay for another year, they have upperclassmen leadership. i think that is greatly missing from Cal's super teams that he creates, in fact i feel without patrick patterson, josh harrelson, and darius miller this year they are a couple losses worse each year the senior leadership those guys have provided has been huge. starting next year though there are no more of these guys that can step into that role, it truly will be a team of 12 guys on scholarship that are probably freaking 1st round picks.

I agree. Does the system work? I don't know. I think two seasons is a little early to judge definitively. It hasn't yet, but what if he wins the next two? I'm not suggesting that he will, but I just feel that the odds of having the best players at some point will yield results. Like I said, that is just opinion based on odds, not a finite, concrete statement.