Da Reds thread

#10,926
#10,926
Appalachiamuck said:
Fahr Votto, Price, BP, Homer, Chapman, Jocketty....F it, fahr 'em all!!

champy, I'd love to hear why you think Chapman blows; or were you just being emotional?

It's been a rough start to the season. I think they'll turn it around. We've had Latos on the DL all season, due back in a couple weeks or less. Plus we've had Bruce, Chapman, Cingrani and Mesoraco with a stint on the DL and while not on the DL, Votto has been injured and missed time as well.

I somewhat agree on Votto though. A $20+ million guy should have more for us to brag on than his OBP. I have loved him over the years but would not be upset if they moved him.
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look at chappys stats compared to other elite closers in the majors and he doesn't measure up. he wants a contract ext in upwards 12 to 15 mil. hell no trade him.
 
#10,927
#10,927
Appalachiamuck said:
Fahr Votto, Price, BP, Homer, Chapman, Jocketty....F it, fahr 'em all!!

champy, I'd love to hear why you think Chapman blows; or were you just being emotional?

It's been a rough start to the season. I think they'll turn it around. We've had Latos on the DL all season, due back in a couple weeks or less. Plus we've had Bruce, Chapman, Cingrani and Mesoraco with a stint on the DL and while not on the DL, Votto has been injured and missed time as well.

I somewhat agree on Votto though. A $20+ million guy should have more for us to brag on than his OBP. I have loved him over the years but would not be upset if they moved him.
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also i like BP and think he should stay but votto's contract is just stupid, and bailey's is even worse. price has shown so far he is a joke at best, and jocketty with the signings that he has made i'm wondering if he is still working for the cardinals. lol
 
#10,928
#10,928
champyvol said:
look at chappys stats compared to other elite closers in the majors and he doesn't measure up. he wants a contract ext in upwards 12 to 15 mil. hell no trade him.
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His K/9 rate is at the top, ERA and WHIP are also at the top. His Saves/Opportunities is very good, maybe not Kimbrelesque. His WAR is 6th among Relief Pitchers over the past 3 calendar years.

So I'm just wondering where this is coming from. He's top 5-7 for sure, but I'm not sure what the market value is for a closer in that range. 12-15 mil does seem high, but just about every MLB contract sounds absolutely absurd to me.


champyvol said:
also i like BP and think he should stay but votto's contract is just stupid, and bailey's is even worse. price has shown so far he is a joke at best, and jocketty with the signings that he has made i'm wondering if he is still working for the cardinals. lol
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I haven't been able to watch too many games this season, so I haven't seen Price butchering anything. I saw someone mention earlier that the lineup is different every day, but again I think that has a lot to do with the injuries, jmo. I'm right there with ya on BP, Homer, Votto & Jocketty. I hate to say it, but the window is starting to close for these guys to win a World Series.
 
#10,929
#10,929
Appalachiamuck said:
His K/9 rate is at the top, ERA and WHIP are also at the top. His Saves/Opportunities is very good, maybe not Kimbrelesque. His WAR is 6th among Relief Pitchers over the past 3 calendar years.

So I'm just wondering where this is coming from. He's top 5-7 for sure, but I'm not sure what the market value is for a closer in that range. 12-15 mil does seem high, but just about every MLB contract sounds absolutely absurd to me.



I haven't been able to watch too many games this season, so I haven't seen Price butchering anything. I saw someone mention earlier that the lineup is different every day, but again I think that has a lot to do with the injuries, jmo. I'm right there with ya on BP, Homer, Votto & Jocketty. I hate to say it, but the window is starting to close for these guys to win a World Series.
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i figure chappy is in the 7 to 15 range amongst closers. this year so far he has been horrible, but it is early still. i figure he is probably getting paid close to what he is worth at 6mil. 10 to 15 they should move him and get some value. the problem with the reds is homer's and joey's contracts are so big they won't be able to move them. they are stuck with overpaid players who were not worth what they were paid and now that they got paid don't care.
 
#10,931
#10,931
champyvol said:
i figure chappy is in the 7 to 15 range amongst closers. this year so far he has been horrible, but it is early still. i figure he is probably getting paid close to what he is worth at 6mil. 10 to 15 they should move him and get some value. the problem with the reds is homer's and joey's contracts are so big they won't be able to move them. they are stuck with overpaid players who were not worth what they were paid and now that they got paid don't care.
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How do you figure he is in the 7-15 range when I just told you he has the 6th highest WAR among relief pitchers over the past 3 seasons? "Still early" is a slight understatement. He's only been off the DL 10 days and has pitched a grand total of 5 innings. And, he's getting paid $7.8+ mil this year.

For reference:
Kimbrel - $7.2
Holland - $4.7
Nathan - $9.0
Papelbon - $13.0
K Rod - $3.25
Grilli - $4.25
Jansen - $4.3
Romo - $6.3

Going by other salaries, I think he should be in the $6 mil range. If he were to finish the season as a top 3 closer then I say give him ~$9-10 mil, but no more...and that makes me sick just thinking about it.

champyvol said:
choo has a higher OBP than votto. he must be worth 30 mil.lol
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Maybe for the season, but not over the last few seasons. Do you understand sample size? But we get it, you think Votto is overpaid. You don't need to keep telling us. Choo is a very valuable player, fwiw.
 
#10,932
#10,932
Appalachiamuck said:
How do you figure he is in the 7-15 range when I just told you he has the 6th highest WAR among relief pitchers over the past 3 seasons? "Still early" is a slight understatement. He's only been off the DL 10 days and has pitched a grand total of 5 innings. And, he's getting paid $7.8+ mil this year.

For reference:
Kimbrel - $7.2
Holland - $4.7
Nathan - $9.0
Papelbon - $13.0
K Rod - $3.25
Grilli - $4.25
Jansen - $4.3
Romo - $6.3

Going by other salaries, I think he should be in the $6 mil range. If he were to finish the season as a top 3 closer then I say give him ~$9-10 mil, but no more...and that makes me sick just thinking about it.


Maybe for the season, but not over the last few seasons. Do you understand sample size? But we get it, you think Votto is overpaid. You don't need to keep telling us. Choo is a very valuable player, fwiw.
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i agree chappy is getting paid right amount now no more though. i don't think votto is overpaid, i know votto is overpaid. great player just not worth that amount.
 
#10,933
#10,933
Votto on DL. Bruce coming off, thankfully.

21 LOB in one game. 21. That is twenty one - in one game. Wow. I don't believe I have ever seen a stat like that before for one 9 inning game. Great clutch hitting. lol.

They would be insane to take Simon out of the rotation when Latos comes back. The pressure mounts on Walt to do something. Either move Cingrani to the pen and trade Chappy, or trade Bailey IMO. Go get some offense. They have Stephenson coming up next season as a starter.

Votto is a $12-13 M a year player currently if you go long term. Shorter term of 3-5 years would put him in the $17-18 M category. That is being generous and assumes he does what he did in 2013. Moot point, but that is reality. He is going on 31 and is also going on 4 years removed from his MVP year with declining trends and injury issues during the period. Stats guys can rationalize all they want but it is a bad deal and I would love to see some other club get stuck with it.

Bailey's new contract proves that Walt is losing it unless Bob ordered it to be done, in which case he is losing it.
 
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#10,934
#10,934
I agree, Bailey's contract makes zero sense. I kinda understood Votto's when they did it, but thought it could end up bad. It's trending that direction.

I'm very interested to see how they play with Bruce back and Votto sidelined.

When Latos returns I think they should move Simon to the pen, give Bailey till the All Star break then re-evaluate. I would like to see him pitch pretty well, enough so to get interest, and they can trade him for some offense like you're saying. I think trading Chappy is pure nonsense. We would only weaken our bullpen doing that. He's been a top 5 closer, or better, over the last few years & he isn't grossly overpaid.
 
#10,935
#10,935
Appalachiamuck said:
I agree, Bailey's contract makes zero sense. I kinda understood Votto's when they did it, but thought it could end up bad. It's trending that direction.

I'm very interested to see how they play with Bruce back and Votto sidelined.

When Latos returns I think they should move Simon to the pen, give Bailey till the All Star break then re-evaluate. I would like to see him pitch pretty well, enough so to get interest, and they can trade him for some offense like you're saying. I think trading Chappy is pure nonsense. We would only weaken our bullpen doing that. He's been a top 5 closer, or better, over the last few years & he isn't grossly overpaid.
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i think when latos comes back move bailey to the pen. simon has earned a spot in the rotation the way he has pitched. chappy may become a problem since he is already wanting a new contract. it would weaken a already pathetic pen by trading him but if we are out of it by mid year it will be time to rebuild. i would say trade broxton, but we couldn't give him away right now.lol
 
#10,936
#10,936
Appa, Champy, - we are on the same page with this, not that it matters any to Walt! lol.

Link from the Reds website:

Bruce grateful for Reds' medical staff as he returns | reds.com: News

Story on Votto after the Bruce story. This all started with a meniscus tear in 2012 - if they reported it to everybody as it actually occurred. Not an ACL, MC, PCL, patella tendon tear - nothing but meniscus. Having personally experienced an ACL and meniscus tear in a knee I know what it is involved. If the meniscus tear was bad, I can even see the follow-up surgery he had while still on the DL to finish the clean up. But that would have healed in any normal human being inside of 60 days. Now here we are nearly 2 years later and his quad is strained because his knee is weak - which explains his batting style since he returned for the last two years. So either it was much worse than we were led to believe in 2012, or Votto has an abnormal body part, or Votto is a wimp. Can't say because I do not know, but those are the options for explaining it IMO. What an utter disaster with that contract.

If they make no moves I hope they go with this line up tonight the rest of the season. Sub in Heisey and Schu in the OF as well as Santiago in the infield other than first. They swapped Lutz for Soto and he can sub at first when Pena is resting. Frazier can sub there as well.

Frazier his headed toward the club's MVP this season if he keeps at it. At a cost of $600 K.

Homer is back to his 4th inning blues again. Just like 2012.
 
#10,937
#10,937
Welsh just said it, which showed guts since it made light of a Reds player, "Sometimes you wonder what is going on in his (Homer's) head." LOL!!! He went on to explain that he keeps grooving his second and third best pitches instead of going after the hitters with his best stuff. His point was that if the catcher is calling the pitches that are getting hit, shake him off and explain to him that his (Homer's) career is on the line. That if he does not start calling the game correctly he will call the pitches himself. Doesn't say much for Meso's pitch calling abilities.

Pretty direct stuff for all the world to hear. Loved it.
 
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#10,938
#10,938
anybody that has seen him pitch can tell this. it is the reason he is a .500 pitcher. when latos comes back move bailey to the pen. simon is by far the better pitcher now, but price being gutless won't do it.
 
#10,939
#10,939
champyvol said:
anybody that has seen him pitch can tell this. it is the reason he is a .500 pitcher. when latos comes back move bailey to the pen. simon is by far the better pitcher now, but price being gutless won't do it.
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Ondrusek and Marshall are useless now. Hoover has been slightly better of late, but still stinks. Cingrani does not have it to be anything but a #5 starter at this point in his career. He has not mastered enough pitches. You cannot last with fastball after fastball. Then there is Bailey that is paid like a #1 or #2 and pitches like a #4 or #5. I have no earthly idea what to do if they are not going to make a trade. I do know something has to give. Whether it be Bailey or Cingrani - somebody has to go. If Cingrani goes there are no lefty starters, which is not good either.

It's happening again - just like 2012. With Votto out the team BA is up 20 points and the runs scored per game went up from 3.9 to 4.6 with an improved W/L. When it happens once it can be explained away as an aberration. When it happens again, after Votto played every game last season, they really need to take notice. It is all on Votto to change that re-emerging trend when he comes back.
 
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#10,940
#10,940
Vols4us said:
Ondrusek and Marshall are useless now. Hoover has been slightly better of late, but still stinks. Cingrani does not have it to be anything but a #5 starter at this point in his career. He has not mastered enough pitches. You cannot last with fastball after fastball. Then there is Bailey that is paid like a #1 or #2 and pitches like a #4 or #5. I have no earthly idea what to do if they are not going to make a trade. I do know something has to give. Whether it be Bailey or Cingrani - somebody has to go. If Cingrani goes there are no lefty starters, which is not good either.

It's happening again - just like 2012. With Votto out the team BA is up 20 points and the runs scored per game went up from 3.9 to 4.6 with an improved W/L. When it happens once it can be explained away as an aberration. When it happens again, after Votto played every game last season, they really need to take notice. It is all on Votto to change that re-emerging trend when he comes back.
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where are the stat guys now.lol
 
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#10,941
#10,941
champyvol said:
where are the stat guys now.lol
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Let's have a little fun with it at the sore spot - LF.

Nelson Cruz: .295/.367/.612; 16 HRs, 34 runs, 44 RBIs, 54 Hits.

Ludwick/Heisey combined: .238 BA, 4 HRs, 20 Runs, 23 RBIs, 56 hits. I didn't bother with combining their OBP and SLG because it was pointless.

Now consider that Cruz' stats are Vottoish pre injury. His cost to the O's is $8 M. Essentially, they could have signed him by even paying one or two more mill to outbid the O's for the same cost as Luddy/Heisey. Or another way of looking at it - half the cost of Votto for PRE-injury Votto. Then if you wanted to keep him you sign him at some during or after the season you sign him for 3-4 yrs at $18 to 20 tops. Meanwhile you dump Votto in the off season while his value was still perceived to be high - much higher than it is now. Or they could have rolled the dice and signed Cruz for 2-3 years at around $15-16 M per year and kept Votto - but said forget it to Homer. That was what Cruz' agent was shopping him to get originally. Homer would have pitched his azz off to gain the big contract at the end of the season from somebody else. The club would have picked up a compensatory 1st round pick in the next draft. They could have cleared out the rest of the dead wood and played for a WS this season and for the foreseeable future with the quality starters in development on the farm.

Oh well. lol.
 
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#10,950
#10,950
champyvol said:
maybe for 17 mil a year. seems like a bargain compared to votto.
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This. I followed the action on him. His agent shopped him throughout MLB for a 3 year deal at $17 M. No takers. He finally got nibbles by Seattle, Arizona, Baltimore and a could others on a two year deal. Seattle moved forward the most, but acquired another guy prior to because of the requirements for Cruz. The deal died. He finally figured out he was going to have to prove himself to put the PEDs suspension behind him. Took the $8 M from the O's. If he keeps going he will have blown the doors off the 3 year deal for $17M once this season is over - or the O's will lock him up the second half of the season.
 
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