RespectAPA
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Marshall's 2023 opener against UPike (NAIA, Appalacian Athletic) had a final 127-76. I think that's about what we should expect — even if we do a good job holding C-N to a low points-per-possession, they'll still have a lot of possessions overall. But so will we!
I think most of the predictions are below quite a bit on how many points both teams will score. If the O/U was 150, I'd take the over. If it was 170, I'd think about it.
I suspect that many people are hearing about the defense in coach's system and thinking that means to expect low scoring from C-N, but that isn't what her defense is about. Her defense loves creating offense. Pressing hard after scoring. Pressing hard after missing. Getting steals, turning them into easy buckets. And because you're committing to pressing anyway, you can commit more girls to offensive rebounding than most teams do. Meaning that you'll not only generate a lot of offense off of your defense, but also generate a lot of second-chance points! (Marshall was 5th in offensive rebounds per game, and Troy [another System team] was 2nd in ORPG in 2023]
And of course, that comes at a cost, or everyone would play aggressive defense! C-N will get some transition buckets back. They'll score more than 50 points, almost surely. What matters here is that you have to evaluate the defense by how many points they create AND give up, not just how much they give up. If the defense gives up 60, but generates 20, that's only a -40 performance, which is better than giving up 45 but generating 0, a -45 performance, to explain what I mean by that.
It's natural to think that the defense is purely about preventing points, especially since that's how most coaches (in men's and women's) use their defense — very passively. Defense like this generally only really generates scoring when the opponents mess up. But the fact is that all the points that Tennessee's defense scores (or the points that C-N's offense allows, depending on how you want to look at it) are worth the same as the points that the Tennessee offense scores. And dominating the offensive boards for second-chance points is the cherry on top! That's something that nobody will credit the defense/defensive system for, but it will happen largely going to be due to the way that we commit to playing defense, which allows us to also commit to maximizing offensive rebounds — at the cost of some easy 2s on the other end. (which is okay: for all the easy 2s we give up, the steals and 2nd-chance points should more than make up for it)
So when evaluating our defense tonight, don't simply look at points allowed. Hell, don't even just look at points per possession. (though that would be better than points allowed alone)
Give the defense some credit for the steals that turn into easy points -- and those second-chance points off loose balls that we get because we don't drift into a passive defense after every shot. That's all a part of the same system which views tough defense not just as a points-per-possession matter, but in terms of fighting hard for rebounds, and for steals that turn into quick 'offense'. (but credit the defense for generating those easy layups)
UT - 118
C-N - 65
GO BIG ORANGE! NEW ERA TIME, YEEHAW!
Hopefully, if all goes well, we'll lead the country in threes, steals, offensive rebounds, and points. We'll probably allow somewhere between 70 to 80 points per game en route to doing that, but we'll average between 80 to 90 points per game, and all that matters is whether you have more points than your opponent when the final buzzer rings.
I think most of the predictions are below quite a bit on how many points both teams will score. If the O/U was 150, I'd take the over. If it was 170, I'd think about it.
I suspect that many people are hearing about the defense in coach's system and thinking that means to expect low scoring from C-N, but that isn't what her defense is about. Her defense loves creating offense. Pressing hard after scoring. Pressing hard after missing. Getting steals, turning them into easy buckets. And because you're committing to pressing anyway, you can commit more girls to offensive rebounding than most teams do. Meaning that you'll not only generate a lot of offense off of your defense, but also generate a lot of second-chance points! (Marshall was 5th in offensive rebounds per game, and Troy [another System team] was 2nd in ORPG in 2023]
And of course, that comes at a cost, or everyone would play aggressive defense! C-N will get some transition buckets back. They'll score more than 50 points, almost surely. What matters here is that you have to evaluate the defense by how many points they create AND give up, not just how much they give up. If the defense gives up 60, but generates 20, that's only a -40 performance, which is better than giving up 45 but generating 0, a -45 performance, to explain what I mean by that.
It's natural to think that the defense is purely about preventing points, especially since that's how most coaches (in men's and women's) use their defense — very passively. Defense like this generally only really generates scoring when the opponents mess up. But the fact is that all the points that Tennessee's defense scores (or the points that C-N's offense allows, depending on how you want to look at it) are worth the same as the points that the Tennessee offense scores. And dominating the offensive boards for second-chance points is the cherry on top! That's something that nobody will credit the defense/defensive system for, but it will happen largely going to be due to the way that we commit to playing defense, which allows us to also commit to maximizing offensive rebounds — at the cost of some easy 2s on the other end. (which is okay: for all the easy 2s we give up, the steals and 2nd-chance points should more than make up for it)
So when evaluating our defense tonight, don't simply look at points allowed. Hell, don't even just look at points per possession. (though that would be better than points allowed alone)
Give the defense some credit for the steals that turn into easy points -- and those second-chance points off loose balls that we get because we don't drift into a passive defense after every shot. That's all a part of the same system which views tough defense not just as a points-per-possession matter, but in terms of fighting hard for rebounds, and for steals that turn into quick 'offense'. (but credit the defense for generating those easy layups)
UT - 118
C-N - 65
GO BIG ORANGE! NEW ERA TIME, YEEHAW!
Hopefully, if all goes well, we'll lead the country in threes, steals, offensive rebounds, and points. We'll probably allow somewhere between 70 to 80 points per game en route to doing that, but we'll average between 80 to 90 points per game, and all that matters is whether you have more points than your opponent when the final buzzer rings.
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