Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#43,326
#43,326
0nelilreb said:
You realize they will still plant corn , soybeans , milo and wheat right ? You can’t do anything on a farm without using fuel . The cost of that fuel affects everything that is done .
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Yes, and when corn gets under $3,.00/bu, farmers can't even cover their input costs (even with low fuel prices). They will plow under their fields and take the insurance money from the Federal Govt. which is the last thing they want to do.
 
#43,328
#43,328
Orangeburst said:
Week old article
Looks like Canada is screwed on storage and restart
Looks like US still has storage available for up to 60 days
North America’s Oil Industry Is Shutting Off the Spigot
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Cushing will be full inside a few weeks.

PADD3 / Gulf Coast does have more storage ... and depending on how much we see production respond we might be able to make it 60 days. You don't want to take these things to absolute tank tops. So, there will be push back.

It all depends on the demand recovery from here.

Are we at 97 MMbpd by the end of the year or at 90?
 
#43,329
#43,329
Mick said:
What companies do you think will go belly up?
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Shale oil drillers. It’s relatively expensive to get to. It’s not the Exxon’s of the world you need to worry about. They will be fine. But the drillers who they pay to get it for them are done. There’s tons of them.
 
#43,331
#43,331
VolStrom said:
Unfortunately we won't do a damn thing once this virus is behind us unless the government makes companies move their manufacturing away from China. I think we've seen enough from China to take all essential production and move it to North America or Europe. Screw China!
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European countries are on the surface at least beginning to talk the talk
 
#43,332
#43,332
volfanhill said:
Shale oil drillers. It’s relatively expensive to get to. It’s not the Exxon’s of the world you need to worry about. They will be fine. But the drillers who they pay to get it for them are done. There’s tons of them.
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Not to mention all of the oil service companies... oil is a huge employer of a ton of ancillary businesses.
 
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#43,333
#43,333
LouderVol said:
I am having a hard time understanding what it means to trade at a negative. Like what does that mean is going on?

It sounds like they are having to pay people to buy the futures? Or that they charging people to hold futures?
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Anyone have an answer for this? I too am curious about how this works.
 
#43,334
#43,334
VolStrom said:
When you fill up your F-150 the next time in 2022 it's gonna cost you $600 instead of the $6.50 this week.
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I'm not worried, we have a steady hand at the helm. I'm sure it's totally under control. People are saying it.
 
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#43,335
#43,335
volfanhill said:
Shale oil drillers. It’s relatively expensive to get to. It’s not the Exxon’s of the world you need to worry about. They will be fine. But the drillers who they pay to get it for them are done. There’s tons of them.
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There are going to be some midstream guys lose their shirts if we see a U-shaped, longer demand recovery.

Targa went into the Permian with all these acreage-dedication contracts. If you don't buy a V-shaped recovery I say go long Enterprise and short Targa.
 
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#43,338
#43,338
TennTradition said:
From a physical perspective, think of it this way.

For some reason - maybe a physical constraint, maybe because of the cost of shutting-in, you would rather pay someone to take your product rather than turn it off.
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I don’t think they have anywhere to put it and it’s going to cost big bucks to figure out what to do with it and deal with the crude product.
 
#43,341
#43,341
volfanhill said:
Shale oil drillers. It’s relatively expensive to get to. It’s not the Exxon’s of the world you need to worry about. They will be fine. But the drillers who they pay to get it for them are done. There’s tons of them.
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We were always at the mercy of global supply as far as drilling. It's not helping that Russia and Saudi Arabia are trying to destroy our oil industry.
 
#43,342
#43,342
Mick said:
We were always at the mercy of global supply as far as drilling. It's not helping that Russia and Saudi Arabia are trying to destroy our oil industry.
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That’s true. But they backed off on that. And this still happened. The concern now is these companies just disappear. Like I said we can’t just flip the switch back on. Which means will no longer be energy independent.
 
#43,344
#43,344
zeppelin128 said:
Ah, that makes sense. Cheaper in the long run to pay someone to take the excess rather than shut down production entirely?
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Pretty much. There are a lot of moving parts to this and they are all happening at the same time, which is causing major problems.A lot of these oil companies took on massive debt when things were going well, and now you have a sudden halt to demand and shenanigans with OPEC+. OPEC+ agreed to cut supply but those contracts don't go into effect until May. If the prices continue to fall, there will be 1,000+ bankruptcies without a bailout. We may see economies collapse.
 
#43,345
#43,345
volfanhill said:
It means us oil is in all likely hood done. It means they won’t be drilling bc no where to put it. It means when things get moving again potential shortages and ridiculously high gas prices. It means back to being at the mercy of OPEC.
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If I'm not mistaken, I think in Texas, the Dakotas and Alaska if a well is shut down (no longer producing) it has to be capped. So it takes time and money to get a well back up and running when it's needed.
 
#43,346
#43,346
GordonC said:
I don't have much trimming to do, and I just gave up on gas-powered ones for that very reason. I picked up an el-cheapo electric one at Lowe's and slapped a protection/replacement plan on it, 3 years I think, and basically said just forget this.

Last summer, I had to go through a storage area and find some old-school gas cans that didn't leak for mower gas, because mine had some stupid springy mandated release to pour deal on it. The spring broke. And I had a hard time finding a regular old gas cap that would fit the tank.
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Those “new environmental friendly” gas cans are awful
 
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#43,347
#43,347
Mick said:
We were always at the mercy of global supply as far as drilling. It's not helping that Russia and Saudi Arabia are trying to destroy our oil industry.
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In this instance, it made a fairly insignificant difference. Some more pain in April/May than we would have had because of some cheap cargoes that are now pointed this way, but COVID just blows their efforts out of the water.
 
#43,348
#43,348
volfanhill said:
That’s true. But they backed off on that. And this still happened. The concern now is these companies just disappear. Like I said we can’t just flip the switch back on. Which means will no longer be energy independent.
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The damage was already done and we were never energy independent.
 
#43,350
#43,350
hog88 said:
If I'm not mistaken, I think in Texas, the Dakotas and Alaska if a well is shut down (no longer producing) it has to be capped. So it takes time and money to get a well back up and running when it's needed.
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North Dakota offered P&A relief during this, probably because Continental told them they were going under if they didn't get it. So, they don't have to plug. They can just shut-in up there.

Don't know about Alaska.

In Texas, you can shut-in as far as I know.
 
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