Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#43,604
#43,604
Wuhan Virus Is Not the 1918 Flu and No Number of False Analogies Will Make It So
Posted at 8:00 pm on April 20, 2020 by streiff

The more we know about the Wuhan virus, the more it becomes obvious that 1) this panic is driven by utterly atrocious models (have you seen the ridiculous ‘of course the models were wrong, models are always wrong’ defense of why we should believe the models?), 2) which were given critical mass by a media that were frantic to hurt President Trump as he easily moved past the Russia Hoax and Adam Schiff’s silly little impeachment gambit and 3) transformed into panicked policies by gutless or duplicitous governors that were, in turn, 4) accepted by a supine populace.

39ef03b8-c859-4184-bb3b-82d8ab726564.jpg

In this October 1918 photo made available by the Library of Congress, St. Louis Red Cross Motor Corps personnel wear masks as they hold stretchers next to ambulances in preparation for victims of the influenza epidemic. A century after one of history’s most catastrophic disease outbreaks, scientists are rethinking how to guard against another super-flu like the 1918 influenza that slaughtered tens of millions as it swept the globe in mere months. (Library of Congress via AP)

Not only is the national death rate from Wuhan virus dropping…we wouldn’t even notice the national death rate were it not for the grotesquely inflated numbers generated by New York in their Dialing-for-Dollars campaign…the national death rate, on the whole, is dropping. New studies show that as many as 50 times the number of people who are tested positive for Wuhan have had it and never noticed they had an infection. While the national economy teeters on the edge of a disaster that will take a generation to recover from, hundreds of thousands of Americans are teetering on the edge of saying ‘f*** this noise’ and ignoring regulations and the politicians who make them.

So now, the Wuhan fantasists are turning to the old stand-by of warning of dire consequences. This morning, Dr. Anthony Fauci claimed against all evidence that an early removal of restrictions would result in a deadly ‘second wave’ of infections when there is zero evidence of a deadly first wave. And then there is the faux-historians trying to convince their readers that Wuhan is just like the 1918 flu and that removing restrictions that were imposed in some places during that pandemic will inevitably lead to a major resurgence…the same ‘second wave’ nonsense…of the virus.
 
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#43,605
#43,605
luthervol said:
I never insinuated that was the case.
It's only an exercise in weighing acceptable risks against loss of freedoms.
Click to expand...

It still implies that at minimum 33% using your model will die. I know you lefties are infatuated with body counts but not even Dr Fauci believes that 33% if people will die from this
 
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#43,606
#43,606
DC_Vol said:
What not leave them in there for sixty weeks and double their chances of survival and health?
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It doesn't. Going from 30 weeks to 60 weeks only increases the probability of success 1.7%....from 96.7% to 98.3%.
Waiting 30 weeks increases your chances of success from 50% to 96.7%.........46.7% increase.
The first 30 weeks have an impact 27 times greater than the next 30 weeks.
 
#43,607
#43,607
zeppelin128 said:
AOC speaks for loud idiots on the far-left wing of the party on Twitter. She does not speak for most liberals or democrats, as can be evidenced in Joe Biden of all people destroying her guy Bernie in the primary.
Click to expand...

Joe is almost daily supporting Bernie's platform.
 
#43,609
#43,609
vols40 said:
It still implies that at minimum 33% using your model will die. I know you lefties are infatuated with body counts but not even Dr Fauci believes that 33% if people will die from this
Click to expand...
You aren't very good at mental exercise.
 
#43,613
#43,613
DC_Vol said:
What was the script for when someone asked about Pete’s admiration of Bernie and his socialist policies back in his college days?

Did anyone ever address this with you guys? Not trying to me a smart ass...I’m genuinely curious.

Also, do you really believe he has abandoned that?
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We were all wild and crazy once when we were teenagers in high school. For my boy Pete, that meant writing a complimentary essay about the Bern. Also, he wasn't in college when he wrote that, just an fyi about misinformation rampant during the primary. He was at St. Joseph's in 2000.

I've read the essay a few times. You can see the desire for crossing the aisle, while admittedly he bought into the false promise of Bernie's populist policies as many do. I'm glad Pete moved past Bernie's particularly destructive style of populism that propelled Trump to the White House. It is a pretty good essay for a high school student.

2000 Winning Essay by Peter Buttigieg | JFK Library
 
#43,617
#43,617
vols40 said:
It still implies that at minimum 33% using your model will die. I know you lefties are infatuated with body counts but not even Dr Fauci believes that 33% if people will die from this
Click to expand...

I’ve got a better one. Riddle me this....

Three of your closest family members are locked in a room with 2000 doors. One door will kill ALL of them but the remaining 1,999 doors are safe doors. Open a safe door and everyone escapes.

Each week one more safe door is added.

After week 1, one of the people will he laid off indefinitely. After week 2, one of the people will lose the business they spent their lifetime building to bankruptcy and their 40 employees will be jobless. After week 3...we’ll nothing else happens...because person number 3 is getting a govt check worth more than they were making as a cashier at the local Dollar Tree.

Which week do you open the door and which door will you select?
 
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#43,619
#43,619
luthervol said:
It doesn't. Going from 30 weeks to 60 weeks only increases the probability of success 1.7%....from 96.7% to 98.3%.
Waiting 30 weeks increases your chances of success from 50% to 96.7%.........46.7% increase.
The first 30 weeks have an impact 27 times greater than the next 30 weeks.
Click to expand...

You’re correct. I should have said cut in half their probability of dying.

1/30 vs 1/60
 
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#43,620
#43,620
luthervol said:
You aren't very good at mental exercise.
Click to expand...
If you wait 6 weeks (which will take most through the end of April), then you would only have a 1 in 7 chance of picking the wrong door (14.3%). If only 1 in 3 die, then that is 14.3% x 33% = 4.8% death rate (which is actually less than the 5.4% we are now at nationally)
 
#43,622
#43,622
PEPPERJAX said:
I can see both sides of the argument because worshipping while gathering is so important to millions of people. The “temporary norm” is tough for many to deal with right now. However, God expects the multitudes (referring to religious people) to also use common sense. I seriously doubt God is judging his followers who have elected to stay at home & worship instead of going to church. If anything, he is commending people for not going full retard & avoiding crowds.
Click to expand...
I think he gave us our own mind for a reason... To use reason.
 
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#43,624
#43,624
vols40 said:
And in fairness it could be pandering to the Bernie Bros. I bet Joe wishes he could remember
Click to expand...
I'm not getting in to the dementia nonsense. Both major party candidates are pushing 80 and both sound like a word salad with the top of the blender removed while fervently attempting to pander to their respective bases.
 
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