Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

[McDad]

LOL, it was difficult to create a zinger given the subject matter and the curve ball of dentist.

Glad yall enjoyed.

 

[DancingOutlaw]

so the vulnerable should just stay indoors from now on....is this Sparta?

Everyone should evaluate risk for themselves. If you think being outside is a death sentence, stay indoors. E-commerce and the gig economy can pretty much deliver whatever you want right to your door.

 

[rjd970]

Within a few weeks of the flu test? Not many.

Also, I'm not certain in the peak of flu season that deaths aren't counted that way. Probably not car accidents, but if the death certificate says flu and heart attack as causes of death, then I bet the CDC ultimately counts that as a confirmed case if there was a positive flu test to back up that COD determination on the death certificate.

Probably, I bet, I’m not certain....doesn’t sound like your opinion is any better than mine, except your opinion is the basis for $2T in additional spending and shutting down huge swaths of the economy.

I don’t mean that as an attack, I just don’t think it is that unreasonable for people to question these numbers and weigh the reasonableness of our reaction against them.

 

[DancingOutlaw]

So what made you stop going to that dentist?

 

[utvolpj]

so the vulnerable should just stay indoors from now on....is this Sparta?

No, just until they feel safe enough to venture out. You don't completely hold down the economy for a few vulnerable people. This is idiocy!

 

[volinbham]

LOL Whitmer (SIAP)

“In World War II, there weren’t people lining up at the Capitol to protest the fact that they had to drop everything they were doing, and build planes, or tanks, or to ration food,” Whitmer said. “They rolled up their sleeves, and they got to work.”

 

[allvol123]

LOL Whitmer (SIAP)

“In World War II, there weren’t people lining up at the Capitol to protest the fact that they had to drop everything they were doing, and build planes, or tanks, or to ration food,” Whitmer said. “They rolled up their sleeves, and they got to work.”

Lol.

She's a gold mine.

 

[titansvolsfaninga]

Mobile medical company offers at-home coronavirus testing

I would definitely invest in her business.

 

[Hunerwadel]

They knew it was killing far more people than this virus is and yet they valued their freedom more than their safety.

That's the same basic theme I heard on Fox this morning. Not specifically about smallpox but the freedom vs safety thing. It may be their catch phrase of the of the day.

 

[RikidyBones]

Lol.

She's a gold mine.

if poop could be confused with gold maybe.

 

[LouderVol]

Sorry, that was somewhat rhetorical because I've already gone through the calculations. When you sum up all these death rates for the standard population, they mean that you have maybe a 1% chance of dying of a non-CV reason after getting a positive test.

Math for the categories you list:

Let's just use the full heart disease. 2200/day from heart disease. That's 0.69 per 100,000 per day. So over a three week period, you have about a 14.4 / 100,000 people chance of dying of heart disease. We have about 25,000-30,000 confirmed cases a day and about 1,800-2000 deaths per day from that tested population. So, (14.4 / 100 k)*(30k) = 4.3 deaths per day vs. 1800-2000 deaths per day.

Sum all of the various reasons people die and you don't get up over 1% of the deaths recorded for the general population.

As I was saying initially - if you are only testing really sick people (those 65+ with heart disease) then it would make this math different because it isn't representative of the general population. And I am willing to bet that there is elevated testing of at-risk groups. But it also isn't right to say that all of the 30,000 people a day fall in the highest of high-risk groups either (which is 65+ with heart disease).

I guess I am missing the point you are making.
Are you saying we should count those extra deaths because they are a small percent?

I think NYC was including 9k in their 24k total that were "withs" instead of "ofs". That's pretty stastically significant. Both on a local level (40%ish) and national (20%ish). So I guess I am struggling to see the distinction in what should and shouldnt be counted in your argument.

 

[McDad]

LOL Whitmer (SIAP)

“In World War II, there weren’t people lining up at the Capitol to protest the fact that they had to drop everything they were doing, and build planes, or tanks, or to ration food,” Whitmer said. “They rolled up their sleeves, and they got to work.”

Ahem. Gov, Whitmer. Don't look now, but...

 

[allvol123]

Mobile medical company offers at-home coronavirus testing

I would definitely invest in her business.

You should. All in.

 

[Volsfaninva917]

He forced me to spit instead of swallow???

McDad you seem like a fun girl hahaha

 

[TennTradition]

Probably, I bet, I’m not certain....doesn’t sound like your opinion is any better than mine, except your opinion is the basis for $2T in additional spending and shutting down huge swaths of the economy.

I don’t mean that as an attack, I just don’t think it is that unreasonable for people to question these numbers and weigh the reasonableness of our reaction against them.

Questioning is always fair. A must.

When I saw the questions I asked, I said "let's estimate it"

I quickly concluded it isn't a big contribution. These public health experts likely already knew this from their past experience and therefore that is why they count deaths the way they do (balancing pin-point accuracy against bandwidth during the heat of a pandemic).

It's the conclusion some are coming to that I'm questioning - not the fact they are questioning at all.

Basically it is - oh, you have added 5,000 probable deaths in 45,000 total? We can't trust these numbers at all! This whole thing is a sham! (various people are various degrees of these conclusions - not sure where you fall). My point - it's a confirmation bias jump. People feel this must be over-reaction because we've never seen it. They want to be back at work. They want the economy to recover. We all do. The risk is that they then process data through that filter. When they hear that non-CV deaths (or co-morbidity) of CV+ patients are counted or that probable cases where a medical determination is made but there was no positive test - the risk is they immediately jump to "these numbers are all hogwash - you can't trust any of it". That would be the confirmation bias jump. I want these quarantines to be unnecessary and the idea that our numbers are inflated in consistent with that.

Yet, they are telling us how many probable and we can estimate the impact of the non-CV death contribution. So, I'd rather ask "are we inflating the numbers in the way that would impact our decision making?" So, I make the estimates. Based on that, I conclude I'm not worried about their impact. They aren't swaying how we make decisions. I'm comfortable with that take.

 

[LouderVol]

Ahem. Gov, Whitmer. Don't look now, but...
View attachment 272744View attachment 272745View attachment 272746

History is written by the victor.

 

[Pepe_Silvia]

so the vulnerable should just stay indoors from now on....is this Sparta?

Instead you want everyone else to totally upend their lives in order to cater to the vulnerable. That makes a lot of sense.

"Force everybody to quarantine so that the vulnerable population doesnt have to quarantine thenselves!"

 

[TennTradition]

I guess I am missing the point you are making.
Are you saying we should count those extra deaths because they are a small percent?

I think NYC was including 9k in their 24k total that were "withs" instead of "ofs". That's pretty stastically significant. Both on a local level (40%ish) and national (20%ish). So I guess I am struggling to see the distinction in what should and shouldnt be counted in your argument.

I'm not saying they *should* include them because they are a small percent - but I am saying the non-CV deaths are a small contribution to the total. So, I understand from a public health perspective that including them doesn't move the needle and it facilitates more rapid data communication/transfer during the heat of the pandemic. It takes 6 weeks for the CDC to get death certificates and make their final "confirmed" decision. We need more real-time data than that.

I thought the probable numbers were well below 9k - but I don't have that number in front of me so I will go research it (apologies if I've been posting wrong numbers). I thought they originally added about 3600 and then about 1400 since then as probable. They have added those and Maryland has added 68 of those cases. To my knowledge, that's it.

 

[luthervol]

I think there will be High School sporting events in the Fall. I think College Football will be played with fans being phased in slowly as the season progresses. With the NFL they will play and pending where you live will probably have fans. Just my opinion, I have no direct information

I have the same opinion.

 

[Velo Vol]

The antibody testing isn't all there yet.

Roche CEO calls some Covid-19 antibody tests a 'disaster' and questions makers' ethics

 

[MontyPython]

Farewell and adieu to you fair Spanish ladies
Farewell and adieu you ladies of Spain.
For we received orders for to sail back to Boston
And soon never more will we see you again.

 

[OHvol40]

Just admit, you were cheering for it to fail just so you could come on a college team fan site and scream I was right motherf#$kers

I haven’t cheered for anything, I just stated a fact about my own experience and subsequently attacked relentlessly for it. Why, exactly, would people here get so defensive about a simple statement about a random drug? Answer me that.

 

[OHvol40]

So if someone tells you something, no matter how stupid it is, you believe it.

No one made anything up. You happily relayed the nonsense that you believed.

I relayed a fact, you didn’t like or understand it.

 

[LouderVol]

I'm not saying they *should* include them because they are a small percent - but I am saying the non-CV deaths are a small contribution to the total. So, I understand from a public health perspective that including them doesn't move the needle and it facilitates more rapid data communication/transfer during the heat of the pandemic. It takes 6 weeks for the CDC to get death certificates and make their final "confirmed" decision. We need more real-time data than that.

I thought the probable numbers were well below 9k - but I don't have that number in front of me so I will go research it (apologies if I've been posting wrong numbers). I thought they originally added about 3600 and then about 1400 since then as probable. They have added those and Maryland has added 68 of those cases. To my knowledge, that's it.

No I think I am wrong. The 9k weren't NYCs probable number. That was a different projection.

I think it is closer to 5k, it's hard to tell. I have seen three different articles dated the same with all different numbers.

 

[Volsfaninva917]

I haven’t cheered for anything, I just stated a fact about my own experience and subsequently attacked relentlessly for it. Why, exactly, would people here get so defensive about a simple statement about a random drug? Answer me that.

I'll mail you your trophy