Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#49,552
#49,552
volinbham said:
So I'll throw out a theory - critique at will; I'm interested in facts that will invalidate it.

Assumption - short of a vaccine or herd immunity the majority of the population will contract Covid-19 (Interested in hearing if this assumption is false)

The lowest total cost approach to handling the situation is to maximize the speed with which the population(referenced above) contracts Covid-19 without overburdening the HC system and while protecting the most vulnerable. IOW - flattening the curve to prevent unnecessary deaths due to lack of HC resources but not flattening so much as to prolong the inevitable infection of population at the cost of more damage to the economy worldwide.

Where am I going wrong?
Click to expand...

It's like a boxing analogy. If you're going to lose, a first round knockout is better than a 12 round bludgeoning.
 
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#49,553
#49,553
allvol123 said:
It's like a boxing analogy. If you're going to lose, a first round knockout is better than a 12 round bludgeoning.
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Not what I was thinking but I get it. More people are going to die either way and the burning question is how much real control do we have over that number? Much of the "don't open" arguments I see are based in the assumption it will prevent deaths. I don't see how that assumption holds.
 
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#49,554
#49,554
volinbham said:
Not what I was thinking but I get it. More people are going to die either way and the burning question is how much real control do we have over that number? Much of the "don't open" arguments I see are based in the assumption it will prevent deaths. I don't see how that assumption holds.
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Yep.

I've been listening to the Dan Carlin podcasts on WW1 again. I keep thinking of the parallels to this, could so much misery have been avoided if some early decisive battles happened rather than this elongated multi year trench warfare that was absolute misery.
 
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#49,555
#49,555
bnhunt said:
And yours has Trump.
I didn't vote for Biden in the primary by the way. Who'd you vote for (if you did)?
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I’m not a republican and I live in GA which has yet to vote. Like the last few presidential elections, I will most likely vote 3rd party. I don’t like Trump and I despise Biden. They’re both execrable human beings unfit for the office.
 
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#49,557
#49,557
RockyTop85 said:
I wonder if the people who are convinced it’s all a big overreaction realize that, if we had actually rolled out the level of testing Trump brags about, we would have seen that it was an overreaction and may never have shut the economy down?
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Nah the level of testing wouldn’t help..... I feel fairly confident from what I have seen is that the majority of the population will get infected with this virus at one point or another.....I do feel like the overwhelming majority of the population will have mild flu type symptoms to no symptoms at all..... we need to get everyone back to work and living life.... protect the elderly and the sick as much as possible.
 
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#49,558
#49,558
volinbham said:
So I'll throw out a theory - critique at will; I'm interested in facts that will invalidate it.

Assumption - short of a vaccine or herd immunity the majority of the population will contract Covid-19 (Interested in hearing if this assumption is false)

The lowest total cost approach to handling the situation is to maximize the speed with which the population(referenced above) contracts Covid-19 without overburdening the HC system and while protecting the most vulnerable. IOW - flattening the curve to prevent unnecessary deaths due to lack of HC resources but not flattening so much as to prolong the inevitable infection of population at the cost of more damage to the economy worldwide.

Where am I going wrong?
Click to expand...

I think you’re correct.
 
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#49,559
#49,559
volinbham said:
So I'll throw out a theory - critique at will; I'm interested in facts that will invalidate it.

Assumption - short of a vaccine or herd immunity the majority of the population will contract Covid-19 (Interested in hearing if this assumption is false)

The lowest total cost approach to handling the situation is to maximize the speed with which the population(referenced above) contracts Covid-19 without overburdening the HC system and while protecting the most vulnerable. IOW - flattening the curve to prevent unnecessary deaths due to lack of HC resources but not flattening so much as to prolong the inevitable infection of population at the cost of more damage to the economy worldwide.

Where am I going wrong?
Click to expand...


Not wrong.

But if it is true that you can catch this twice there is absolutely nothing that can be done until a vaccine comes out to help truly turn the outbreak number to zero.

My thoughts are we are entering a new quadrant of life where mask wearing becomes a norm in society like china.

In my opinion not everyone will get it but those who are susceptible will eventually. Honestly, if you were trying to create a virus that weeds out the weak and does a purge on society this would be the virus you create.

I am not saying china was trying to do a cleanse of its elderly and weak to leave a society behind that was all working and contributing but it's still to soon to say they werent.
 
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#49,560
#49,560
volbeast33 said:
Nah the level of testing wouldn’t help..... I feel fairly confident from what I have seen is that the majority of the population will get infected with this virus at one point or another.....I do feel like the overwhelming majority of the population will have mild flu type symptoms to no symptoms at all..... we need to get everyone back to work and living life.... protect the elderly and the sick as much as possible.
Click to expand...
Not what I’m saying.

Testing on the scale Trump is lying about would have shown that it wasn’t as bad as expected, earlier. Assuming 1. That it was here before 1/23, and 2. That it actually wasn’t as bad as expected.
 
#49,567
#49,567
allvol123 said:
Yes. That is where cheap 5 minute tests would be massive. Could test everyone, everyday, before entry.
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Would they ever be that cheap to test 100 people every single day..... plus they will have to come up with something less invasive than the test now bc no one is going to take that every single day.
 
#49,568
#49,568
volbeast33 said:
Would they ever be that cheap to test 100 people every single day..... plus they will have to come up with something less invasive than the test now bc no one is going to take that every single day.
Click to expand...

Maybe. That is for someone to figure out. Plus losing 25 customers to death in 2 weeks probably hurts your bottom line.
 
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#49,569
#49,569
allvol123 said:
Maybe. That is for someone to figure out. Plus losing 25 customers to death in 2 weeks probably hurts your bottom line.
Click to expand...
Cost/benefit analysis would likely show that the tests would be cheaper than losing that many people in their care... and you also have to think about the legal ramifications going forward. If they don't start being more proactive, these facilities will open themselves up to being sued. Some suits may happen anyway. The U.S. is a litigious society.
 
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#49,571
#49,571
So, how about everybody that's nervous, scared, or otherwise horrified at the prospect of living a normal life, just stay indoors, sequestered, quarantined, isolated... and the rest of us will carry-on as we always have.

Cool?

I have no issue with those that want to stay barricaded in their homes. Just don't have an issue with the fact that I don't want to stay barricaded in my home. I have stuff to do and a life to live.
 
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#49,572
#49,572
volinbham said:
So I'll throw out a theory - critique at will; I'm interested in facts that will invalidate it.

Assumption - short of a vaccine or herd immunity the majority of the population will contract Covid-19 (Interested in hearing if this assumption is false)

The lowest total cost approach to handling the situation is to maximize the speed with which the population(referenced above) contracts Covid-19 without overburdening the HC system and while protecting the most vulnerable. IOW - flattening the curve to prevent unnecessary deaths due to lack of HC resources but not flattening so much as to prolong the inevitable infection of population at the cost of more damage to the economy worldwide.

Where am I going wrong?
Click to expand...
To elaborate my own thoughts:
I’ve had this discussion with my wife and a friend who is a doctor. It’s not much different from manufacturing/logistics theory. HC is the bottleneck. You keep the bottleneck operating at capacity (or near it In this case) and do everything you can to expand that capacity.

That’s the optimal theory. IMO.

The trick of it seems to be in figuring out how to get to capacity without overshooting. Given the way this virus spreads, the relatively long incubation period, the fact that some carriers don’t show symptoms, etc. that would tend to create a lot of variables that make solving that equation quite difficult.
 
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#49,573
#49,573
Offset Eye said:
So, how about everybody that's still nervous, scared, or otherwise horrified at the prospect of living a normal life, just stay indoors, sequestered, quarantined, isolated... and the rest of us will carry-on as we always have.

Cool?

I have no issue with those that want to stay barricaded in their homes. Just don't have an issue with the fact that I don't want to stay barricaded in my home. I have stuff to do and a life to live.
Click to expand...
That should do the trick, as long as you don't live in either an assisted living (nursing home) or a senior citizen housing community. Those places have become like self-cleaning ovens. Have you seen the stats? It's almost as if a serial killer invaded and went on a Ted Bundy-style rampage.
 
#49,574
#49,574
BowlBrother85 said:
That's fine and dandy, as long as you don't live in either an assisted living (nursing home) or a senior citizen housing community. Those places have become like self-cleaning ovens. Have you seen the stats? It's almost as if a serial killer invaded and went on a Ted Bundy-style rampage.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I have. And I don't live in one of those facilities. Nor do I frequent them. They can stay sheltered. Perfectly fine with that.
 
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#49,575
#49,575
BowlBrother85 said:
That should do the trick, as long as you don't live in either an assisted living (nursing home) or a senior citizen housing community. Those places have become like self-cleaning ovens. Have you seen the stats? It's almost as if a serial killer invaded and went on a Ted Bundy-style rampage.
Click to expand...
Great so they quarantine. How’s this difficult?
 
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