Latest Coronavirus - Yikes

#58,601
#58,601
kiddiedoc said:
While we are being honest, isn't it interesting that "scientists and professionals" (myself included) have explained for many years that cloth masks are ineffective at blocking viral transmission and acquisition? And, before you start going on about droplet spread, aerosolized droplets are still smaller than the filtration capabilities of cloth and similar masks by a factor of 10-40x.

Golly, if only we had thought of wearing bandanas during flu season every year. Surely we've cost 100s of thousands of American lives!

Truth is: there is NO scientific evidence that these goofy face coverings help at all, and there is legitimate concern that they may spread germs through hand contact and have other negative effects on the wearer through CO2 retention, increased viral concentration in the vapor area inside the mask, etc.
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You’ve done it now! Activate the mask brigade. You’re a sorry sack of **** who deserves hell.

@volinbham posted the best summary of this phenomenon yet: Coronavirus has made fear the new virtue.
 
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#58,602
#58,602
lawgator1 said:
Let's be honest. A large percentage of the people refusing to wear masks are doing so as a sign of their contempt for the scientists and professionals telling them they really need to wear them. Also a sign of solidarity with Trump on his minimizing it.

All you have to do is see that the people arguing against masks are the same people claiming that the numbers are inflated for political reasons.
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Why do you avoid questions directed specifically to you?
 
#58,604
#58,604
TennTradition said:
Both Michigan and Georgia saw their declines in deaths/day stop and either stabilize or begin climbing at a point that seems consistent with their increased mobility. But the important fact so far is there is NO acceleration. Does this mean long plateau? Or will it simmer here for a while and then take off?
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Would you say that a plateau at the current level would be sustainable for quite some time as long as the cases are spread over the population?

I'm thinking there may be a few low plateaus like this as we work our way under 10k cases per day at some point in late July/ early August.
 
#58,605
#58,605
kiddiedoc said:
While we are being honest, isn't it interesting that "scientists and professionals" (myself included) have explained for many years that cloth masks are ineffective at blocking viral transmission and acquisition? And, before you start going on about droplet spread, aerosolized droplets are still smaller than the filtration capabilities of cloth and similar masks by a factor of 10-40x.

Golly, if only we had thought of wearing bandanas during flu season every year. Surely we've cost 100s of thousands of American lives!

Truth is: there is NO scientific evidence that these goofy face coverings help at all, and there is legitimate concern that they may spread germs through hand contact and have other negative effects on the wearer through CO2 retention, increased viral concentration in the vapor area inside the mask, etc.
Click to expand...

What I can’t figure out and NGV can’t convince me of is why they would need to shove a foot long Q-tip up into your brain pan to retrieve the test sample when droplets coming from my cough or sneeze could spread the virus . If I have it you can run the Qtip inside my mouth or I can just spit on it and it should show up either negative or positive. Otherwise the mask warning falls apart .
 
#58,606
#58,606
kiddiedoc said:
While we are being honest, isn't it interesting that "scientists and professionals" (myself included) have explained for many years that cloth masks are ineffective at blocking viral transmission and acquisition? And, before you start going on about droplet spread, aerosolized droplets are still smaller than the filtration capabilities of cloth and similar masks by a factor of 10-40x.

Golly, if only we had thought of wearing bandanas during flu season every year. Surely we've cost 100s of thousands of American lives!

Truth is: there is NO scientific evidence that these goofy face coverings help at all, and there is legitimate concern that they may spread germs through hand contact and have other negative effects on the wearer through CO2 retention, increased viral concentration in the vapor area inside the mask, etc.
Click to expand...

And @lawgator1 just got body slammed and counted out.
 
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#58,608
#58,608
Rifleman said:
Would you say that a plateau at the current level would be sustainable for quite some time as long as the cases are spread over the population?

I'm thinking there may be a few low plateaus like this as we work our way under 10k cases per day at some point in late July/ early August.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I believe that unless weather just kills transmission risk that we'll face a stubborn plateau.
 
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#58,610
#58,610
lawgator1 said:
Let's be honest. A large percentage of the people refusing to wear masks are doing so as a sign of their contempt for the scientists and professionals telling them they really need to wear them. Also a sign of solidarity with Trump on his minimizing it.

All you have to do is see that the people arguing against masks are the same people claiming that the numbers are inflated for political reasons.
Click to expand...

Hardly a day went by during the lockdown where the hardware and grocery stores weren’t packed full with people not wearing masks and the numbers stabilized.

Stop virtue signaling.
 
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#58,611
#58,611
kiddiedoc said:
While we are being honest, isn't it interesting that "scientists and professionals" (myself included) have explained for many years that cloth masks are ineffective at blocking viral transmission and acquisition? And, before you start going on about droplet spread, aerosolized droplets are still smaller than the filtration capabilities of cloth and similar masks by a factor of 10-40x.

Golly, if only we had thought of wearing bandanas during flu season every year. Surely we've cost 100s of thousands of American lives!

Truth is: there is NO scientific evidence that these goofy face coverings help at all, and there is legitimate concern that they may spread germs through hand contact and have other negative effects on the wearer through CO2 retention, increased viral concentration in the vapor area inside the mask, etc.
Click to expand...

I see a lot of people touching their mask obsessively because it is ill-fitting. If the wearer had Covid already, I suppose they couldn't double infect themselves, but would the potential of getting droplets on their hands in this situation be problematic as they go through a store? Or is that mode of transmission unlikely?
 
#58,612
#58,612
hog88 said:
Hardly a day went by during the lockdown where the hardware and grocery stores weren’t packed full with people not wearing masks and the numbers stabilized.

Stop virtue signaling.
Click to expand...

He should just move to Maryland. Masks are required for entry in any store...most of them are still closed down.
 
#58,616
#58,616
TennTradition said:
Both Michigan and Georgia saw their declines in deaths/day stop and either stabilize or begin climbing at a point that seems consistent with their increased mobility. But the important fact so far is there is NO acceleration. Does this mean long plateau? Or will it simmer here for a while and then take off?
Click to expand...

we still have the area under the curve vs shape of the curve situation. unless we stay shut down until a cure/vaccine we have to have infection unless I'm missing something.
 
#58,617
#58,617
volinbham said:
we still have the area under the curve vs shape of the curve situation. unless we stay shut down until a cure/vaccine we have to have infection unless I'm missing something.
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I don’t think you are. It’s what I was getting at with the expectation of a sustained plateau.
 
#58,618
#58,618
Rifleman said:
I somewhat agree. We always have to wait to see the data since it lags in a number of ways, and only then (optimally) make decisions accordingly. Hospitalization increases and death increases are going to lag daily case increases, so we can't pair those pieces of data in real time.

And, since the data is regionally specific, decisions need to be made in different places depending upon local circumstances instead of a national political conversation. Making large-scale decisions months in advance isn't science-driven, but neither is chastising a locality that is becoming a hot spot for not being as open as other areas.

My point is to advise calmness, for myself as much as anyone, because we are always going to have a corresponding B.S. spike which dwarfs any slight uptick in the data and the people spreading B.S. really don't need extra help.
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I get it and agree with remaining calm.

My point was that as we 1) expand testing to capture more asymptomatic and mild symptom cases the # of cases will expand but those cases aren't really a big deal and actually get us closer towards herd immunity and 2) the relaxation of social distancing will inevitably result in more cases (asymptomatic, mild and severe). I agree there will be a lag but to your point of remaining calm the hospitalization rate is the metric that should we should pay more attention to since raw # of cases. If hospitalizations start to grow rapidly then we need to pay attention.
 
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#58,619
#58,619
DC_Vol said:
Isn’t that what we were after from the beginning? A plateau that sustained itself out over a longer period of time versus a huge peak that would overwhelm the health system?
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Yes, particularly when facing the alternative of exponential growth. But an even better result would be that the measures we took just smashed it to zero (because then increased activity would have even less risk of a spike). Or, that the virus just burns itself out. With hospitalizations still trending down, each of these are possible. But, it seems we are going to hit a stubborn plateau here based on some incoming data. I wasn't saying plateauing to be alarming - just observational.
 
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#58,620
#58,620
volinbham said:
we still have the area under the curve vs shape of the curve situation. unless we stay shut down until a cure/vaccine we have to have infection unless I'm missing something.
Click to expand...

Well there are some scenarios where you transmission probability drops due to temperature or we are wrong amount innate immunity and we start getting herd immunity effects / virus burnout earlier. But beyond those, yeah you have to (hopefully slow) burn through infection.

I just think that a rapidly accelerating death curve would be detrimental to the goal of reopening. Ideally, geographies drop deaths through re-opening (this would mean we were getting big help from some other factor). But I think that a plateau can be lived with. So, it's a positive we've seen no rapid acceleration to this point. I'm not sure that's an all clear for rapid growth though...we know the virus slow-cooked in February without really being noticed (didn't show up in Excess Deaths until mid-March).
 
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#58,622
#58,622
TennTradition said:
Well there are some scenarios where you transmission probability drops due to temperature or we are wrong amount innate immunity and we start getting herd immunity effects / virus burnout earlier. But beyond those, yeah you have to (hopefully slow) burn through infection.

I just think that a rapidly accelerating death curve would be detrimental to the goal of reopening. Ideally, geographies drop deaths through re-opening (this would mean we were getting big help from some other factor). But I think that a plateau can be lived with. So, it's a positive we've seen no rapid acceleration to this point. I'm not sure that's an all clear for rapid growth though...we know the virus slow-cooked in February without really being noticed (didn't show up in Excess Deaths until mid-March).
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At least now we can do a better job of isolating the high at risk (risk from death) population and test much more quickly when spikes occur. So long as those in charge remain truly "data driven" then we should be able to put out the small fires that pop up while letting the smolder continue elsewhere.
 
#58,624
#58,624
Hysteria_Small20200525100147.jpg
 
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#58,625
#58,625
TennTradition said:
Yes, particularly when facing the alternative of exponential growth. But an even better result would be that the measures we took just smashed it to zero (because then increased activity would have even less risk of a spike). Or, that the virus just burns itself out. With hospitalizations still trending down, each of these are possible. But, it seems we are going to hit a stubborn plateau here based on some incoming data. I wasn't saying plateauing to be alarming - just observational.
Click to expand...

Burn out seems more likely than smash to zero (speculating). Given new cases pop everyday even during hardcore shutdowns I don't see how the smash to zero could happen.
 
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