This thread is pretty offbase overall. Everyone is picking coaches that had *RECENT* disappointing seasons and the the media is already piling onto. How is Harbaugh "overrated" when like 80% of the media and CFB fans are saying "HE'S ON THE HOT SEAT!"? If anything, the better claim is that Harbaugh is underrated, because fans are judging him based on 1 freaking season at an overrated program (other than Nebraska, Michigan is the toughest "prestige program" job; recruiting is tough there).
An "overrated coach" is one that has had one or two good seasons recently, but there's little evidence that he can sustain that success, or his success is primarily due to other factors, but the media and general public give too much credit. Based on that criteria, most overrated:
1. Paul Chryst. I've said it numerous times, but Wisconsin's success has more to do with AD Barry Alvarez than any individual coach. Every Wisconsin coach looks great when they are at Wisconsin, but suddenly looks not nearly as great anywhere else. See Bret Bielema and Gary Andersen. Andersen was 19-7 at Wisconsin, but 7-23 at Oregon State. Bielema was 68-24 at Wisconsin and 29-34 at Arkansas with greater resources. Paul Chryst was very very mediocre at Pitt. Chryst is easily the most overrated coach in the US. Put him at Auburn or Texas A&M and suddenly, he's a 5 or 6 win coach.
2. Les Miles. Not an active coach, but extremely overrated. LSU has the best recruiting turf in America and consistently pulls in top 10 classes. With the massive talent at LSU, winning 9-10 games per season is pretty easy. Too many people act like Miles is a top 5 coach for taking the best talent in America and having 10-3 and 8-5 type seasons with it. I'd be surprised if Miles could win 6 games at somewhere like Ole Miss or Miss State. While some of LSU's underperformance can be attributed to its crappy AD, that still doesn't explain why Les Miles didn't have a functional offense at any point in his last 5 or 6 seasons.
3. Chip Kelly. Had a great 4 year run at Oregon. I'm not convinced that he's not the next RichRod: a guy who's offensive system worked very well until it didn't. Remember back in '06 and '07, RichRod was considered a hot commodity; a "home run hire" for any program that could get him. He was 32-5 from 2005 - 07. From that point onward, he's 58-57 with 1 good season out of 9. So what does RichRod have to do with Kelly? Very similar profiles. Nick Saban is successful not because he's a great X's and O's coach, but because he's a great recruiter, an excellent manager (who can hire the best assistants and make them work well together), and a spectacular program builder. Chip Kelly was a great X's and O's guy, whose offense frustrated virtually every defense in America 5-10 years ago. Now, defenses have figured out his system much better. I could be wrong, but guys like Saban who know how to "build and maintain great programs" tend to fare better over the long-run than guys like Kelly who are "offensive innovators" but lack good program-building attributes. (There are some "offensive innovators" like Steve Spurrier that were more fully rounded, but I don't think Kelly fits into that bucket.)
4. Neal Brown. I'm not saying he's not a good coach. He may very well turn out to be a very good coach in due time, but his entire reputation right now is based on 1 win versus Ed Orgeron. Plenty of coaches in CFB history that have had 1 or 2 big wins and then never really did much after that. So more "unproven" and getting too much "benefit of the doubt" right now, but could be a very good coach.