Our chances at Oregon.....

[BookVol]

If we don't lose by 20+ I'll buy everyone who posts in this thread a $50 gift card to Outback Steakhouse

I'll hold you to that.

 

[CMcEver]

I've got to believe if Derek Dooley can coach a team for two quarters and stay close to Oregon then Butch Jones can coach one for four and win one.

Butch Jones > Derek Dooley

Dooley did beat Jones though, handily. I know, talent gap, just throwing that out there though.

 

[ITSGR82BATNVOL]

are better than most think. Admittedly, I always drink the kool-aid, and wear orange tinted glasses. I have been thinking about this game for a while, trying to think of a reason we can hang with this team. I decided to do a little checking/research, and this is what I found interesting, and hopeful.

Over the past four recruiting years, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013, Tennessee and Oregon are exactly even, both averaging finishing at number 15. We keep hearing of the differences in talent, but they have lost quite a bit also. Our defense was not as bad as it appeared on the field(Sunseri), and our team is not void of talent(but it is void of Dooley, thankfully). Oregon is also void of Chip Kelly, and their head coach is completely unproven, and could be their Dooley.

Given the closer overall talent, and I believe a coaching advantage for UT, I believe it will be a MUCH closer game than people think. With a fortunate defensive score, or couple of turnovers, who knows. If UT can score 1st, and get momentum, Oregon may not respond as well as they hope. You never know with kids, new coaching staff, etc.....

Here's to hope! (flame away.......):crossfingers:

You make some valid points IMO. However, I will be shocked if we pull the upset. I believe we would have to play a perfect game at home to win, that being said I don't see us pulling out a win having to travel virtually across country.

 

[ITSGR82BATNVOL]

Just noticed I have picked up my 6th star!!!!! Too bad I don't any eligibility left.

(Just noticed my post total, need to get out more often):hmm:

IMO this post deserves a like, cause it made me lol, so look for it :hi:

 

[Boca Vol]

Dooley did beat Jones though, handily. I know, talent gap, just throwing that out there though.

You must not have been on here for a while...that game didn't count to the braintrusts on here.

The one's that do acknowledge it are quick to point out that "he" beat James Franklin and Vandy that year.

 

[ITSGR82BATNVOL]

If we don't lose by 20+ I'll buy everyone who posts in this thread a $50 gift card to Outback Steakhouse

If we lose by 19 or less / or somehow win I will be posting my mailing address in this thread for your convenience, since I can't pm it to you.

 

[LandonVFL]

I posted this in a different thread, thought I'd post here. I wanted to see average by starter. I took a two-deep depth chart posted in the FF by an Oregon fan for Oregon and looked up the (expected) starter's average ratings on Rivals out of highschool. I also looked at the same information for Tennessee (based on my very rough guess of our first team at this point - WR was the hardest, I think).

Maybe there's something to be said for being evenly matched based on talent. Our defense is clearly more talented than theirs. I also started doing the 2-deep, but didn't finish - based on where I got with that, I think the results would be similar (i.e., equivalent rankings between us and Oregon). I figured our attrition would really hurt us, but maybe it hasn't.

Thought this was interesting and didn't take long (although I wonder if someone else already has done this on VN and I've just not seen it).

I think we hang with them a while and give them a much better game than many expect. In the end, though, I think they wear us down and pull away. They are in the preseason top 5 for a reason.

Now do backups..

 

[Vol865]

This SO WRONG!!! :loco:

First, Mariota only turns a 4.4 sec 40 so he's not THAT blazing fast. Second, Thomas is fast. I'll agree with that. Tyner runs a 4.3, Marshall runs a 4.38......... And Marshall just may get the nod as the starter over Thomas.

That's just a quick look at the RBs.

First off let my say I respect u as a poster and I appreciate the constant hospitality u have brought to the board.

My point was that RB and QB were the only positions that were faster than the.average team

And the SEC is built around the best athletes in CFB so we are used to seeing plenty of speed. The tempo of the game is whats different.

And UT has plenty of athletes to do the job, regardless of last year.

Not saying theres no way we lose, but im will ing to bet its within a 10 point game either way

 

[Brianchevy]

0.00001 /thread

 

[checkerboards09]

You must not have been on here for a while...that game didn't count to the braintrusts on here.

The one's that do acknowledge it are quick to point out that "he" beat James Franklin and Vandy that year.

Who said it didn't count? Talent alone won that game. When it comes to the Vandy game, Dooleys defeatist attitude really kicked in during the 2nd half of the Florida game in '12 and it was over from there.

 

[GoDucks349]

First off let my say I respect u as a poster and I appreciate the constant hospitality u have brought to the board.

My point was that RB and QB were the only positions that were faster than the.average team

And the SEC is built around the best athletes in CFB so we are used to seeing plenty of speed. The tempo of the game is whats different.

And UT has plenty of athletes to do the job, regardless of last year.

Not saying theres no way we lose, but im will ing to bet its within a 10 point game either way

This game is truly a puzzle to me. Lots of "unknowns" and "ifs" to go around on both sides of the football. I really don't think this is a "blow out" game for Oregon. I do think it's closer than the early spread. As a Duck you have to expect me to think we'll win, just as I expect Tenn fans to think they will win. That's only reasonable.

Oregon: Are they really going to be able to fill the gaps at LB? How much will they miss Jordan at DE? Is the reason Marshall may start at RB because Thomas didn't bulk up in the off season? Will Oregon throw the ball more now that Kelly is gone? The WR look very solid and with Huff finally healthy will he burn defenses that focus on the run? How's Oregon going to do in the FG department this year? (kicker cost the Ducks the Stanford game last year) Will Helfrich be worse, better or just different than Kelly? Will Helfrich have the steel balls Kelly carried around?

Tenn: Suspect QB with very talented rookie WRs, will they be throwing completions to the defense? Can freshmen WR stay focused in a big game while getting their bell rung by the DBs? Can Tenn oline pound Oregon's defense and wear them down? Who's starting at RB? Does Tenn have the speed and depth and discipline to pull a Stanford on defense and shut down the Oregon running game? Will a new coach with talent he didn't recruit be able to transform them into a very tough opponent by week three? How many players have left the program during the transition? Usually a new coach loses a few if he's a strong disciplinarian.

Just some thoughts on the game.

 

[GOVOLS 1]

Who knows, that's why you play the game. Maybe we should just forfeit the game if people don't think we stand a chance against them

 

[vols4evah]

This game is truly a puzzle to me. Lots of "unknowns" and "ifs" to go around on both sides of the football. I really don't think this is a "blow out" game for Oregon. I do think it's closer than the early spread. As a Duck you have to expect me to think we'll win, just as I expect Tenn fans to think they will win. That's only reasonable.

Oregon: Are they really going to be able to fill the gaps at LB? How much will they miss Jordan at DE? Is the reason Marshall may start at RB because Thomas didn't bulk up in the off season? Will Oregon throw the ball more now that Kelly is gone? The WR look very solid and with Huff finally healthy will he burn defenses that focus on the run? How's Oregon going to do in the FG department this year? (kicker cost the Ducks the Stanford game last year) Will Helfrich be worse, better or just different than Kelly? Will Helfrich have the steel balls Kelly carried around?

Tenn: Suspect QB with very talented rookie WRs, will they be throwing completions to the defense? Can freshmen WR stay focused in a big game while getting their bell rung by the DBs? Can Tenn oline pound Oregon's defense and wear them down? Who's starting at RB? Does Tenn have the speed and depth and discipline to pull a Stanford on defense and shut down the Oregon running game? Will a new coach with talent he didn't recruit be able to transform them into a very tough opponent by week three? How many players have left the program during the transition? Usually a new coach loses a few if he's a strong disciplinarian.

Just some thoughts on the game.

good assessment.
I agree with you that this game wont be a blowout by either team. Oregon is a great team and should win but we are capable of winning also if we play hard for 4 quarters.

 

[immyaxl]

are better than most think. Admittedly, I always drink the kool-aid, and wear orange tinted glasses. I have been thinking about this game for a while, trying to think of a reason we can hang with this team. I decided to do a little checking/research, and this is what I found interesting, and hopeful.

Over the past four recruiting years, 2010, 2011, 2012, and 2013, Tennessee and Oregon are exactly even, both averaging finishing at number 15. We keep hearing of the differences in talent, but they have lost quite a bit also. Our defense was not as bad as it appeared on the field(Sunseri), and our team is not void of talent(but it is void of Dooley, thankfully). Oregon is also void of Chip Kelly, and their head coach is completely unproven, and could be their Dooley.

Given the closer overall talent, and I believe a coaching advantage for UT, I believe it will be a MUCH closer game than people think. With a fortunate defensive score, or couple of turnovers, who knows. If UT can score 1st, and get momentum, Oregon may not respond as well as they hope. You never know with kids, new coaching staff, etc.....

Here's to hope! (flame away.......):crossfingers:

Oregon will win by at least 2 scores! UT will be lucky to get 6 wins this year. Next year will be A struggle to. Year 3 of the Jones era will be win everything comes together.

 

[BOP]

I posted this in a different thread, thought I'd post here. I wanted to see average by starter. I took a two-deep depth chart posted in the FF by an Oregon fan for Oregon and looked up the (expected) starter's average ratings on Rivals out of highschool. I also looked at the same information for Tennessee (based on my very rough guess of our first team at this point - WR was the hardest, I think).

Maybe there's something to be said for being evenly matched based on talent. Our defense is clearly more talented than theirs. I also started doing the 2-deep, but didn't finish - based on where I got with that, I think the results would be similar (i.e., equivalent rankings between us and Oregon). I figured our attrition would really hurt us, but maybe it hasn't.

Thought this was interesting and didn't take long (although I wonder if someone else already has done this on VN and I've just not seen it).

I think we hang with them a while and give them a much better game than many expect. In the end, though, I think they wear us down and pull away. They are in the preseason top 5 for a reason.

You are on drugs. We went 5-7, they finished number 2 in the nation. They have lost 4 games in 3 years, we've lost 21. There is no logical way to even come close to bridging that gap. Not to mention, the matchup is heinous for us. If you could pick a "talented" defense that oregon might score 40 on in the first half, it would be ours. Slow, no discipline, cant tackle. Stop watching the stanford tape and put on the Arkansas State tape. Our defense is much closer to theirs.

 

[Orange_Crush]

If we don't lose by 20+ I'll buy everyone who posts in this thread a $50 gift card to Outback Steakhouse

Cool!

 

[Orange_Crush]

First off let my say I respect u as a poster and I appreciate the constant hospitality u have brought to the board.

My point was that RB and QB were the only positions that were faster than the.average team

And the SEC is built around the best athletes in CFB so we are used to seeing plenty of speed. The tempo of the game is whats different.

And UT has plenty of athletes to do the job, regardless of last year.

Not saying theres no way we lose, but im will ing to bet its within a 10 point game either way

Oregon wears teams down with pace of play. UT has been conditioning for that pace of play.

Oregon's O moves the ball based in large part on misdirection and confusion. UT's D has been practicing all off-season against a very similar O.

Recruiting results between the teams have been similar.

It should be a decent game, and UT a decent chance to hang in there and pull out a W.

 

[OWB]

The future is bright, but this season is going to be tough. Anyone who gets their hopes up, deserves to be let down. There are too many question marks at too many positions (both player and coaches) to know what the Vols are going to put on the field. Could Tennessee beat Oregon? Of course. Will they? Probably not.

I'm not looking for a win, I'm looking for a style of play. I'm looking for a Tennessee team that can keep it together and fight four quarters. To build brick by brick, you have to lay that foundation. Although this season probably won't have a lot of wins on the scoreboard, it can have a lot of wins on the field. Those are the wins I'm looking for this year.

 

[ncvol17]

I hope August's fans thinking we will hang in or win at the house of top 10 Oregon, Bama, and stinking gators do not turn on the staff by October when talent beats out rebuilding. It would be interesting to see into the future and read the November posts on here. GBO. Beat either UGA or USC in an upset in our house.

 

[bullet20]

If we don't lose by 20+ I'll buy everyone who posts in this thread a $50 gift card to Outback Steakhouse

Just wanted to get my post in just in case.

 

[orangebloodgmc]

You are on drugs. We went 5-7, they finished number 2 in the nation. They have lost 4 games in 3 years, we've lost 21. There is no logical way to even come close to bridging that gap. Not to mention, the matchup is heinous for us. If you could pick a "talented" defense that oregon might score 40 on in the first half, it would be ours. Slow, no discipline, cant tackle. Stop watching the stanford tape and put on the Arkansas State tape. Our defense is much closer to theirs.

At the battle of Chillianwala ...

"General Gough! We are just about totally out of ammunition!"

General Gough: "Very good. Now we can go at them with the bayonet."

:loco::rock:

 

[Orange_Crush]

You are on drugs. We went 5-7, they finished number 2 in the nation. They have lost 4 games in 3 years, we've lost 21. There is no logical way to even come close to bridging that gap. Not to mention, the matchup is heinous for us. If you could pick a "talented" defense that oregon might score 40 on in the first half, it would be ours. Slow, no discipline, cant tackle. Stop watching the stanford tape and put on the Arkansas State tape. Our defense is much closer to theirs.

What logic are you using? Since you referenced "logic" while being illogical, I'll bite.

Your logic:

Look at previous results.
<Infer> Present and future results are completely constrained by previous results.
<Therefore> Future results will be the same as past results.

This logic is obviously flawed, simply by application: i.e. I was never born before 1972. Therefore, by your use of logic, it is logically impossible that I was born in 1972. Yet, I was born in 1972.

This logic is obviously flawed, simply by historic example. i.e. UT would never have had the historic run of success in the 90s, following struggles, if it was true. UT would never have seen its recent struggles, following success, if it was true.

So, where is the flaw in your logic? The inference that results are completely constrained by historic results. It ignores the fundamental, and logically foundational, law of causation.

Every cause has an equal and opposite effect. Restated, every effect needs a sufficient cause.

Thus, results are based on a known or unknown set of causes, not just totally causally disconnected events in the past.

I was born in 1972 because, approximately 9 months prior, my parents had sex. This entered a set of sufficient causes into the equation that produced a new effect.

Per the UT-Oregon game, many things have changed since last year-- coaches, schemes, rosters, preparation methods, conditioning, etc...

I contend that basing the results of this year's game on last year's rankings is logically untenable, and there is, in fact, logical reason to state that the results of this years game could be different.

 

[Orange_Crush]

The future is bright, but this season is going to be tough. Anyone who gets their hopes up, deserves to be let down. There are too many question marks at too many positions (both player and coaches) to know what the Vols are going to put on the field. Could Tennessee beat Oregon? Of course. Will they? Probably not.

I'm not looking for a win, I'm looking for a style of play. I'm looking for a Tennessee team that can keep it together and fight four quarters. To build brick by brick, you have to lay that foundation. Although this season probably won't have a lot of wins on the scoreboard, it can have a lot of wins on the field. Those are the wins I'm looking for this year.

Because of the Qs that you brought up, I think it appropriate to hope, but not expect. The Qs are Qs in either direction, at this point because there is talent/potential.

Things could fall into place for UT and the Qs be answered with great play. They could fall apart the Qs be answered with struggles. That's what makes this an intriguing season.

I think the fanbase should be cautiously hopeful, but understanding if the team struggles this year. I agree that, in the end, we watch this season for small wins and improvement on the field, while celebrating vast improvement should it be there.

 

[W.TN.Orange Blood]

Oregon wears teams down with pace of play. UT has been conditioning for that pace of play.

Oregon's O moves the ball based in large part on misdirection and confusion. UT's D has been practicing all off-season against a very similar O.

Recruiting results between the teams have been similar.

It should be a decent game, and UT a decent chance to hang in there and pull out a W.

:whistling: Butch is that you talking here?

 

[Weee'rre Baaccckk]

If we win this game, I will throw a party for everyone in this thread, in Knoxville on a game day and every beer will come packing a $100 bill. The more you drink, the more $ you make.