Path to a #1 seed

#227
#227
VolCalls said:
Why do you have Houston ahead of us when the selection committee has us ranked ahead of them?
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That's going to be interesting to track. Bracket Matrix has Houston above us now, with every predictor having us as a 2 seed. If Bracket Matrix is a reasonable proxy for committee sentiment, Houston has passed us. We won't know if that's the case until the actual selection.
 
#228
#228
Dougie_D said:
As far as I know Auburn and Duke are locks as 2/4 number 1 seeds.

That leaves 2 left with :
Bama, TN, FL are floating around for those last spots.
After the KY loss , I think we may have slipped down to 3rd.
- Bama
- FL
- TN

Bama has everything to gain and everything to lose. Every single game left is a top 25 matchup.
They only get bounced out if they go 2-5 which seems unlikely .. SO- that will lead us FL and TN for last spot. I’m

Even if we win out we’d need a FL loss.
- OR,
If we lose 1 game it can only be against Bama , Ole Miss, or TX AM and hope FL loses twice to any team .

TN remaining schedule:
Vandy
@TX AM *
@lsu
Bama *
@Ole Miss *
South Carolina

Florida remaining schedule:
South Carolina
Oklahoma
@lsu
@Georgia
TX AM *
@bama *
Ole Miss *
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Houston and Iowa State are in the mix
 
#230
#230
Anti-shunshinepumper said:
Double Oof!
Actually, Quadruple Oof!
Purdue has now lost 4 in a row!
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And your point?. I guess I'd be really butthurt if I were a Purdue fan instead of a Vols fan... but you do you sir. Purdue losing 4 games really sucks for them and the big tens net ratings. Its all good for UT. Now we are competing with Houston and our SEC foes for that 1 seed. We basically hold our own destiny in our hands. But something tells me if Houston wins out they will get a 1 seed. Leaving Bama, Florida and UT fighting for that last one. Bama plays both UT and Florida along with Auburn.. their chances of surviving the gauntlet of their last 4 games is slim. Florida has the 'easiest' path to a 1 seed of the 3 leaving UT needing Houston and Florida to stumble even if we win out. That's ignoring the results from conference tourneys.

Part of making predictions in sports is you're gonna be wrong sometimes and you move on.
 
#231
#231
kckempf said:
That's going to be interesting to track. Bracket Matrix has Houston above us now, with every predictor having us as a 2 seed. If Bracket Matrix is a reasonable proxy for committee sentiment, Houston has passed us. We won't know if that's the case until the actual selection.
Click to expand...
I get it, but Bracket Matrix is a conglomerate of every John Doe bracketologist in existence and doesn't include the only one that matters, which is the actual Selection Committee. In their top 16, we were #5 and Houston was #8. Neither team has lost since then - there is zero chance they have passed us and they won't pass us as long as we continue to win. If we win out, we'll be a 1-seed, and I'll pay anyone who wants to wager otherwise $100 if we aren't.
 
#232
#232
Dougie_D said:
I still think it comes down to FL or TN. Which one ends up with the better record the next games will get a #1 seed. If we tie, you give nod to FL.

If Bama loses to FL and/or TN they’ll slide out and will get replaced by Houston. That would leave:
1Auburn
1Duke
1Houston
1FL or TN
————
2FL or TN
2Bama
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You also said Tennessee was getting a 5 seed not all that long ago
 
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#233
#233
VolCalls said:
I get it, but Bracket Matrix is a conglomerate of every John Doe bracketologist in existence and doesn't include the only one that matters, which is the actual Selection Committee. In their top 16, we were #5 and Houston was #8. Neither team has lost since then - there is zero chance they have passed us and they won't pass us as long as we continue to win. If we win out, we'll be a 1-seed, and I'll pay anyone who wants to wager otherwise $100 if we aren't.
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I think it’s possible that they’ve passed us right now but that if we were to go undefeated we would pass them back, obviously we’d never know. If we win out, from the reveal until end of season we’d be 6-0 (6, 24, 27, 36, 78 & 81) average win ranking or 42, they’d be 7-0 (7, 8, 10, 21, 29, 47 & 63) average ranking of 26.4.

I don’t think it’s crazy to think that if the committee had us just barely infront of them that they’re close to the season adding better wins than we would could push them past. I don’t think either way is definitive, and can see a case to be made both ways, and if we’ve learned anything it’s that the committee doesn’t always do what we think makes sense.

I’ve not done the research, but my guess is that last years reveal to selection Sunday doesn’t identically line up with W/L records.
 
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#234
#234
pimo1 said:
And your point?. I guess I'd be really butthurt if I were a Purdue fan instead of a Vols fan... but you do you sir. Purdue losing 4 games really sucks for them and the big tens net ratings. Its all good for UT. Now we are competing with Houston and our SEC foes for that 1 seed. We basically hold our own destiny in our hands. But something tells me if Houston wins out they will get a 1 seed. Leaving Bama, Florida and UT fighting for that last one. Bama plays both UT and Florida along with Auburn.. their chances of surviving the gauntlet of their last 4 games is slim. Florida has the 'easiest' path to a 1 seed of the 3 leaving UT needing Houston and Florida to stumble even if we win out. That's ignoring the results from conference tourneys.

Part of making predictions in sports is you're gonna be wrong sometimes and you move on.
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Glad you two found each other.
 
#235
#235
bleedingTNorange said:
I think it’s possible that they’ve passed us right now but that if we were to go undefeated we would pass them back, obviously we’d never know. If we win out, from the reveal until end of season we’d be 6-0 (6, 24, 27, 36, 78 & 81) average win ranking or 42, they’d be 7-0 (7, 8, 10, 21, 29, 47 & 63) average ranking of 26.4.

I don’t think it’s crazy to think that if the committee had us just barely infront of them that they’re close to the season adding better wins than we would could push them past. I don’t think either way is definitive, and can see a case to be made both ways, and if we’ve learned anything it’s that the committee doesn’t always do what we think makes sense.

I’ve not done the research, but my guess is that last years reveal to selection Sunday doesn’t identically line up with W/L records.
Click to expand...
we need Houston to lose tonight, it's not a bad loss but may be enough to keep them below us.
 
#236
#236
VolCalls said:
I get it, but Bracket Matrix is a conglomerate of every John Doe bracketologist in existence and doesn't include the only one that matters, which is the actual Selection Committee. In their top 16, we were #5 and Houston was #8. Neither team has lost since then - there is zero chance they have passed us and they won't pass us as long as we continue to win. If we win out, we'll be a 1-seed, and I'll pay anyone who wants to wager otherwise $100 if we aren't.
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What the committee said two weeks ago isn’t a topic of speculation but the way the committee’s view has changed since then is a fair topic. Lunardi has us a 5 and Houston at 6, and he has seemed to have an inside source in the past few years. I’m not confident that we would take Alabama’s spot over Houston if we both win out, though. Houston is above us in the computer rankings and that’s unlikely to change without a change in form on their part. I think the likeliest path for us to get a 1 seed is for the teams above us to slip enough that both teams have space on the 1 line.
 
#237
#237
kckempf said:
What the committee said two weeks ago isn’t a topic of speculation but the way the committee’s view has changed since then is a fair topic. Lunardi has us a 5 and Houston at 6, and he has seemed to have an inside source in the past few years. I’m not confident that we would take Alabama’s spot over Houston if we both win out, though. Houston is above us in the computer rankings and that’s unlikely to change without a change in form on their part. I think the likeliest path for us to get a 1 seed is for the teams above us to slip enough that both teams have space on the 1 line.
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There is history for the committee to use its top 16 reveal as the guide for the remainder of the season, meaning if we win out, then we stay above Houston. Happened to us and UNC last year.

Now, could they change? Sure, every committee is different, and there are biases in this stuff. It’s a human committee.
 
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#238
#238
bleedingTNorange said:
I think it’s possible that they’ve passed us right now but that if we were to go undefeated we would pass them back, obviously we’d never know. If we win out, from the reveal until end of season we’d be 6-0 (6, 24, 27, 36, 78 & 81) average win ranking or 42, they’d be 7-0 (7, 8, 10, 21, 29, 47 & 63) average ranking of 26.4.

I don’t think it’s crazy to think that if the committee had us just barely infront of them that they’re close to the season adding better wins than we would could push them past. I don’t think either way is definitive, and can see a case to be made both ways, and if we’ve learned anything it’s that the committee doesn’t always do what we think makes sense.

I’ve not done the research, but my guess is that last years reveal to selection Sunday doesn’t identically line up with W/L records.
Click to expand...
I just don’t think a separation of three places on the S-curve is “barely.” I realize those ranked 6 & 7 have lost, so they’re likely one spot behind us now, but we had a very clear lead a week ago and nothing has changed from a win-loss standpoint, plus our win at the #6 team (which A&M was on the S-curve) is the best win of anyone since then.
 
#239
#239
kckempf said:
What the committee said two weeks ago isn’t a topic of speculation but the way the committee’s view has changed since then is a fair topic. Lunardi has us a 5 and Houston at 6, and he has seemed to have an inside source in the past few years. I’m not confident that we would take Alabama’s spot over Houston if we both win out, though. Houston is above us in the computer rankings and that’s unlikely to change without a change in form on their part. I think the likeliest path for us to get a 1 seed is for the teams above us to slip enough that both teams have space on the 1 line.
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I respectfully disagree. If we win out I am 100% confident we will be a #1 seed regardless of what anyone else does.
 
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#240
#240
pimo1 said:
And your point?. I guess I'd be really butthurt if I were a Purdue fan instead of a Vols fan... but you do you sir. Purdue losing 4 games really sucks for them and the big tens net ratings. Its all good for UT. Now we are competing with Houston and our SEC foes for that 1 seed. We basically hold our own destiny in our hands. But something tells me if Houston wins out they will get a 1 seed. Leaving Bama, Florida and UT fighting for that last one. Bama plays both UT and Florida along with Auburn.. their chances of surviving the gauntlet of their last 4 games is slim. Florida has the 'easiest' path to a 1 seed of the 3 leaving UT needing Houston and Florida to stumble even if we win out. That's ignoring the results from conference tourneys.

Part of making predictions in sports is you're gonna be wrong sometimes and you move on.
Click to expand...
My point is the same as it was when I first mentioned it. Purdue wasn't a " Frontrunner" for a #1 seed.
As far as your new prediction, if Tennessee wins out they will be a #1 seed.
Beating a current #1 seed Alabama will catapult us into their spot.
Us winning out is a big "if", tho.
 
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#241
#241
VolCalls said:
I just don’t think a separation of three places on the S-curve is “barely.” I realize those ranked 6 & 7 have lost, so they’re likely one spot behind us now, but we had a very clear lead a week ago and nothing has changed from a win-loss standpoint, plus our win at the #6 team (which A&M was on the S-curve) is the best win of anyone since then.
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At Arizona and home to Iowa State are both better wins than ours in college station per KP fwiw
 
#243
#243
bleedingTNorange said:
At Arizona and home to Iowa State are both better wins than ours in college station per KP fwiw
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We beat Bama and nothing Houston has left on their schedule will be able to compare. It's an easy decision, IMO.
Have to do that and win out tho.
Also, don't forget Houston's losses both times they played a current #1 seed.
 
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#245
#245
Anti-shunshinepumper said:
We beat Bama and nothing Houston has left on their schedule will be able to compare. It's an easy decision, IMO
Have to do that and win out tho.
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I said similar…I don’t think anyone can make a definitive claim as to who’s in front of who as of today, but I do think finishing from here with less losses than them will put us ahead of them. Regardless we still have to beat Bama and get them out of our way also, so it’s likely the same narrative there, need to finish with a better record than both Houston and Bama if we want the 1 seed imo.
 
#247
#247
bleedingTNorange said:
I said similar…I don’t think anyone can make a definitive claim as to who’s in front of who as of today, but I do think finishing from here with less losses than them will put us ahead of them. Regardless we still have to beat Bama and get them out of our way also, so it’s likely the same narrative there, need to finish with a better record than both Houston and Bama if we want the 1 seed imo.
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Yeah, just have to let it play out.
I think everyone will agree we have to beat Bama. Let's not overlook LSU in the meantime or beating Bama probably doesn't even matter.
Texas Tech has already beat Houston. They got a big game still left to win themselves tonight.
On the road, too
 
#248
#248
VolCalls said:
It’s still irrelevant since we’re already ahead of Houston. Win out and we’re a #1 seed, period.
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Well your statement just changed, and I’ve said I agree with that take, but again impossible for anyone to know for sure ATM. Their 2 wins were both better than our 1, there’s no debating that, so if the committee did move them ahead you can bet that would be their reasoning.
 
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