TV ban
Likelihood: 5%
ABC/ESPN and Fox Sports sent a clear message when it announced its early selections for what games it will broadcast in the 2010 season: USC moves the ratings needle. With the Trojans set for 10 nationally or regionally televised games, it would be too punitive to the Pac-10 or its media partners to take away its biggest draw.
Bowl ban
Likelihood: 20%
With 70 teams set to participate in postseason play this year, the NCAA is going to need everyone with a winning or .500 record to fill those spots, lest those with 5-7 records or two wins against FCS schools be brought in to eliminate what little credibility middle and bottom-tier bowls already have.
Only if the NCAA finds McNair knew about the extra benefits does a postseason ban seem likely.
Scholarship reductions
Likelihood: 75%
Now here is where the NCAA has been most willing to penalize violators, by taking away the most critical commodity in college sports.
Alabama was hit with a loss of 21 scholarships over a three-year span. USC could see a similar result, being limited to say signing 21 players for four years.
The biggest hit could come with walk-ons, eliminating the opportunity to reward them with scholarships later in their career.
Vacating wins
Likelihood: 85%
With Bush likely to be found ineligible, the 2005 season or even earlier is likely to be erased from the record books. Alabama and Florida State lost several seasons for textbook and academic fraud incidents.
The biggest question would be Bushs Heisman Trophy and would the trust that presents the award actually revoke it?
Probation
Likelihood: 98%
The NCAAs way of saying, dont do it again, this will be the most effective inducement to make sure new coach Lane Kiffin and his staff walks the straight and narrow.